The propensity interpretation of probability and diagnostic split in explaining away

Causal judgements in explaining-away situations, where multiple independent causes compete to account for a common effect, are ubiquitous in both everyday and specialised contexts. Despite their ubiquity, cognitive psychologists still struggle to understand how people reason in these contexts. Empirical studies have repeatedly found that people tend to ‘insufficiently’ explain away: that is, when one cause explains the presence of an effect, people do not sufficiently reduce the probability of other competing causes. However, the diverse accounts that researchers have proposed to explain this insufficiency suggest we are yet to find a compelling account of these results. In the current research we explored the novel possibility that insufficiency in explaining away is driven by: (i) some people interpreting probabilities as propensities, i.e. as tendencies of a physical system to produce an outcome and (ii) some people splitting the probability space among the causes in diagnostic reasoning, i.e. by following a strategy we call ‘the diagnostic split’. We tested these two hypotheses by manipulating (a) the characteristics of cover stories to reflect different degrees to which the propensity interpretation of probability was pronounced, and (b) the prior probabilities of the causes which entailed different normative amounts of explaining away. Our results were in line with the extant literature as we found insufficient explaining away. However, we also found empirical support for our two hypotheses, suggesting that they are a driving force behind the reported insufficiency

Period Batch Control - A Production Planning System Applied to Virtual Manufacturing Cells

Period Batch Control (PBC) system has been known for its implementation with the classical group technology (GT) cells, and it has been known for its simplicity. The main production planning decisions concern the choice of the period length and the stage number and contents. Also, in order to better integrate the production planning with the application of GT cells at the shop floor, the concept of virtual manufacturing cells has been applied. Since virtual cells configurations are changing periodically, a model for implementing the PBC system into virtual manufacturing cells environment is developed. The model enables alignment of the PBC principles and rules with virtual cell design goals. Model is tested on the case study of furniture production. With the use of scheduling software, different scheduling rules were simulated for four production weeks. The experimental results from these for production weeks show how the choice of PBC parameters impacts the virtual cells configurations, machine sharing and utilization

Source identification for mobile devices, based on wavelet transforms combined with sensor imperfections

One of the most relevant applications of digital image forensics is to accurately identify the device used for taking a given set of images, a problem called source identification. This paper studies recent developments in the field and proposes the mixture of two techniques (Sensor Imperfections and Wavelet Transforms) to get better source identification of images generated with mobile devices. Our results show that Sensor Imperfections and Wavelet Transforms can jointly serve as good forensic features to help trace the source camera of images produced by mobile phones. Furthermore, the model proposed here can also determine with high precision both the brand and model of the device

NewsImages : Addressing the Depiction Gap with an Online News Dataset for Text-Image Rematching

We present NewsImages, a dataset of online news items, and the related NewsImages rematching task. The goal of NewsImages is to provide researchers with a means of studying the depiction gap, which we define to be the difference between what an image literally depicts and the way in which it is connected to the text that it accompanies. Online news is a domain in which the image-text connection is known to be indirect: The news article does not describe what is literally depicted in the image. We validate NewsImages with experiments that show the dataset's and the task's use for studying occurring connections between image and text, as well as addressing the depiction gap, which include sparse data, diversity of content, and importance of background knowledge.Peer reviewe

Efficacy and safety of electrochemotherapy combined with peritumoral IL-12 gene electrotransfer of canine mast cell tumours

Electrochemotherapy combined with peritumoral interleukin-12 (IL-12) gene electrotransfer was used for treatment of mast cell tumours in 18 client-owned dogs. Local tumour control, recurrence rate, as well as safety of combined therapy were evaluated. One month after the therapy, no side effects were recorded and good local tumour control was observed with high complete responses rate which even increased during the observation period to 72%. IL-12 gene electrotransfer resulted in 78% of patients with detectable serum IFN- and/or IL-12 levels. In the treated tumours vascular changes as well as minimal T-lymphocytes infiltration was observed. After 1week, the plasmid DNA was not detected intra- or peritumorally and no horizontal gene transfer was observed. In summary, our study demonstrates high antitumour efficacy of electrochemotherapy combined with IL-12 electrotransfer, which also prevented recurrences or distant metastases, as well as its safety and feasibility in treatment of canine mast cell tumours

Sex differences in neurodevelopmental and common mental disorders examined from three epidemiological perspectives.

Sex differences in neurodevelopmental and common mental disorders are a ubiquitous, well-known, though poorly understood phenomenon. This study examined the issue from three epidemiological perspectives: congruence in age of onset, distribution of sex-ratios with respect to age of onset and similarity of comorbidity and risk factor patterns. The analysis was based on data from the population-based PsyCoLaus study (N = 4874, age 35-82 y). Congruence in age of onset and distribution of sex-ratios were examined with the Mann-Whitney test and cluster analysis. The similarity of comorbidity and risk factor patterns, which were represented by 35 variables, was assessed with the Jaccard coefficient and, after factor analysis, with Tucker's congruence coefficient. While age of onset parameters differed little by sex, the sex ratio varied markedly both in early and in late onset disorders. Moreover, the Jaccard coefficients for most disorders indicated that the similarity of comorbidity and further association patterns was low. Similarly, Tucker's congruence coefficient remained below the range of fair similarity in all factor combinations. In sum, sex differences in common mental disorders were impressively reflected by diverging sex ratios and comorbidity / risk factor patterns. This outcome supports the notion that most mental disorders need a sex-specific etiopathogenetic understanding

Infectious, atopic and inflammatory diseases, childhood adversities and familial aggregation are independently associated with the risk for mental disorders: Results from a large Swiss epidemiological study.

To examine the associations between mental disorders and infectious, atopic, inflammatory diseases while adjusting for other risk factors. We used data from PsyCoLaus, a large Swiss Population Cohort Study (n = 3720; age range 35-66). Lifetime diagnoses of mental disorders were grouped into the following categories: Neurodevelopmental, anxiety (early and late onset), mood and substance disorders. They were regressed on infectious, atopic and other inflammatory diseases adjusting for sex, educational level, familial aggregation, childhood adversities and traumatic experiences in childhood. A multivariate logistic regression was applied to each group of disorders. In a complementary analysis interactions with sex were introduced via nested effects. Associations with infectious, atopic and other chronic inflammatory diseases were observable together with consistent effects of childhood adversities and familial aggregation, and less consistent effects of trauma in each group of mental disorders. Streptococcal infections were associated with neurodevelopmental disorders (men), and measles/mumps/rubella-infections with early and late anxiety disorders (women). Gastric inflammatory diseases took effect in mood disorders (both sexes) and in early disorders (men). Similarly, irritable bowel syndrome was prominent in a sex-specific way in mood disorders in women, and, moreover, was associated with early and late anxiety disorders. Atopic diseases were associated with late anxiety disorders. Acne (associations with mood disorders in men) and psoriasis (associations with early anxiety disorders in men and mood disorders in women) contributed sex-specific results. Urinary tract infections were associated with mood disorders and, in addition, in a sex-specific way with late anxiety disorders (men), and neurodevelopmental and early anxiety disorders (women). Infectious, atopic and inflammatory diseases are important risk factors for all groups of mental disorders. The sexual dimorphism of the associations is pronounced

Pravastatin ameliorates placental vascular defects, fetal growth, and cardiac function in a model of glucocorticoid excess

Fetoplacental glucocorticoid overexposure is a significant mechanism underlying fetal growth restriction and the programming of adverse health outcomes in the adult. Placental glucocorticoid inactivation by 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 (11β-HSD2) plays a key role. We previously discovered that Hsd11b2(−/−) mice, lacking 11β-HSD2, show marked underdevelopment of the placental vasculature. We now explore the consequences for fetal cardiovascular development and whether this is reversible. We studied Hsd11b2(+/+), Hsd11b2(+/−), and Hsd11b2(−/−) littermates from heterozygous (Hsd11b(+/−)) matings at embryonic day (E)14.5 and E17.5, where all three genotypes were present to control for maternal effects. Using high-resolution ultrasound, we found that umbilical vein blood velocity in Hsd11b2(−/−) fetuses did not undergo the normal gestational increase seen in Hsd11b2(+/+) littermates. Similarly, the resistance index in the umbilical artery did not show the normal gestational decline. Surprisingly, given that 11β-HSD2 absence is predicted to initiate early maturation, the E/A wave ratio was reduced at E17.5 in Hsd11b2(−/−) fetuses, suggesting impaired cardiac function. Pravastatin administration from E6.5, which increases placental vascular endothelial growth factor A and, thus, vascularization, increased placental fetal capillary volume, ameliorated the aberrant umbilical cord velocity, normalized fetal weight, and improved the cardiac function of Hsd11b2(−/−) fetuses. This improved cardiac function occurred despite persisting indications of increased glucocorticoid exposure in the Hsd11b2(−/−) fetal heart. Thus, the pravastatin-induced enhancement of fetal capillaries within the placenta and the resultant hemodynamic changes correspond with restored fetal cardiac function. Statins may represent a useful therapeutic approach to intrauterine growth retardation due to placental vascular hypofunction

Defining the proteolytic landscape during enterovirus infection.

Viruses cleave cellular proteins to remodel the host proteome. The study of these cleavages has revealed mechanisms of immune evasion, resource exploitation, and pathogenesis. However, the full extent of virus-induced proteolysis in infected cells is unknown, mainly because until recently the technology for a global view of proteolysis within cells was lacking. Here, we report the first comprehensive catalog of proteins cleaved upon enterovirus infection and identify the sites within proteins where the cleavages occur. We employed multiple strategies to confirm protein cleavages and assigned them to one of the two enteroviral proteases. Detailed characterization of one substrate, LSM14A, a p body protein with a role in antiviral immunity, showed that cleavage of this protein disrupts its antiviral function. This study yields a new depth of information about the host interface with a group of viruses that are both important biological tools and significant agents of disease

Low-Multiplicity Burst Search At The Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

Results are reported from a search for low-multiplicity neutrino bursts in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory. Such bursts could indicate the detection of a nearby core-collapse supernova explosion. The data were taken from Phase I (1999 November-2001 May), when the detector was filled with heavy water, and Phase II (2001 July-2003 August), when NaCl was added to the target. The search was a blind analysis in which the potential backgrounds were estimated and analysis cuts were developed to eliminate such backgrounds with 90% confidence before the data were examined. The search maintained a greater than 50% detection probability for standard supernovae occurring at a distance of up to 60 kpc for Phase I and up to 70 kpc for Phase II. No low-multiplicity bursts were observed during the data-taking period.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, CanadaIndustry Canada, CanadaNational Research Council, CanadaNorthern Ontario Heritage Fund, CanadaAtomic Energy of Canada, Ltd., CanadaOntario Power Generation, CanadaHigh Performance Computing Virtual Laboratory, CanadaCanada Foundation for Innovation, CanadaCanada Research Chairs, CanadaDepartment of Energy, USNational Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, USAlfred P. Sloan Foundation, USScience and Technology Facilities Council, UKFundacao para a Ciencia e a Technologia, PortugalAstronom