Red Signals: Trade Deficits and the Current Account

This paper proposes a method to asses the potential problems of sustainability of a country’s sovereign debt. We claim that the relevant variables used for this analysis are typically subject to changes which are associated with changes in macroeconomics policies. We propose a procedure for identifying periods under which the trade deficit and the current account accumulate at a nonstationary rate. Our approach is based on imposing identifying restrictions on Markov switching type models. An empirical application of the procedure to UK data is examined and discussed. We find that periods of non-stationary trade deficits typically coincide with current account crises

Testing the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate Hypothesis Using a Markov Switching Model and Instrumental Variables

This paper develops a model for the forward and spot exchange rate which allows for the presence of a Markov switching risk premium in the forward market and considers the issue of testing for the unbiased forward exchange rate (UFER) hypothesis. Using US/UK data, it is shown that the UFER hypothesis cannot be rejected provided that instrumental variables are used to account for within-regime correlation between explanatory variables and disturbances in the Markov switching model on which the test is based

A test for volatility spillovers

This paper proposes a new procedure for analyzing volatility links between di®erent markets based on a bivariate Markov switching model. An empirical application of this procedure to three emerging markets is examined and discussed

Social responsibility and social security: The foundation of caja de pensiones para la vejez y de ahorros

The concept of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is not new. Over the course of time, many entrepreneurs have created and developed companies, with a strong sense of ethical and social responsibility. This paper presents an example of how CSR was conceived and put into practice when Caja de Pensiones para la Vejez y de Ahorros was created in Barcelona in 1905, following the life and ideas of its founder, Francesc Moragas, a lawyer with a deep commitment to social action and a successful conception of the technical and economic dimensions of a financial and social institution.savings bank; corporate social responsibility; social security; welfare state;

Corporate social responsibility in the first years of Caja de Pensiones para la Vejez y de Ahorros

When Caja de Pensiones para la Vejez y de Ahorros, 'la Caixa', was created in 1905, it was not just a transient response to a serious social, political, and economic problem; it also provided a permanent solution by creating a long-lasting social welfare institution. In addition, its founder understood the responsibility of social welfare institutions not as an isolated responsibility for each institution, but as part of a harmonious whole that is a true moral entity, with a socio-economic character, independence and unity of nature, purpose and form. The purpose of this article is to show how the conception of corporate social responsibility of Francesc Moragas, the founder of 'la Caixa,' informed the activities of the new institution in a variety of dimensions, including its service to its customers, its economic strengths, its social welfare work and its participation in the creation of Spain's public social security system.savings bank; corporate social responsibility; social security; welfare state;

Detrital zircon from a late Paleozoic accretionary complex of SW Iberia (Variscan Belt): History of crustal growth and recycling at the Rheic convergent margin

In this study we present new U-Pb ages of detrital zircons from greywackes and quartzites of the Pulo do Lobo Anticline (PLA) that have been interpreted to represent a Late Paleozoic accretionary complex in SW Iberia. The PLA separates the Ossa Morena Zone, which has a North- Gondwana affinity throughout Late Ediacaran and Early Paleozoic times, from the South Portuguese Zone, which is considered to be underlain by Laurussia basement. The PLA stratigraphy most likely represents a synorogenic basin that records the closure of the Late Paleozoic Rheic Ocean and the amalgamation of Pangaea. The youngest formations of the PLA contain upper Devonian microfossils.The results obtained indicate that the detrital zircons from the PLA represent a wide range of Precambrian and Paleozoic crystallization ages. Recycling of older sedimentary units of the Late Ediacaran active margin (Cadomian/Pan-African orogenies) as well as of the Early Paleozoic rifting and passive margin (Rheic Ocean) stages, accounts for the older populations with North-Gondwana affinity (Cambrian, Neoproterozoic, Paleoproterozoic and Archean, with a gap of Mesoproterozoic-age). However, the Mesoproterozoic detrital zircon ages found in the greywackes of the Pulo do Lobo Formation (< 7%) that do not correspond to any substantial source within North-Gondwana, could come from recycled sedimentary deposits or from denudation of Grenville-age basement (Laurussia?). The more recent formations present in the northern limb (Ferreira-Ficalho Group) of the PLA show a significant age cluster in the upper Devonian (c. 378 Ma), whereas on the southern limb (Chança Group), samples have from base to top of the stratigraphic sequence: a minor age cluster in the middle Devonian (c. 390 Ma), a significant age cluster in upper Devonian (c. 380 Ma) and very significant age cluster in the upper Devonian (c. 372 Ma). The presence of middle-upper Devonian detrital zircons in combination with very low abundances of Mesoproterozoic detrital zircon suggests that the PLA sedimentary rocks were not derived from exotic sources but rather have a North-Gondwanan origin. The zircon population in the interval c. 390-380 Ma has no identified corresponding magmatic or stratigraphic source in SW Iberia. Considering that, during the development of the upper Devonian basins of SW Iberia, Laurussia basement was not exposed and that there was no magmatic arc on the North-Gondwana margin, we suggest that the c. 390- 380 Ma detrital zircons are most probably derived from denudation of a (intra-oceanic) magmatic arc related to the closure of the Rheic Ocean

Peptide-directed crystal growth modification in the formation of ZnO

Biomolecule-mediated synthesis is fascinating in terms of the level of control and the intricate hierarchical structures of the materials that can be produced. In this study we compare the behavior of a phage display identified peptide, EAHVMHKVAPRP (EM-12) with that of a mutant peptide EAHVCHKVAPRP (EC-12), having additional complexation capability, on the formation of ZnO from solution. The synthesis conditions (Zn(CH3COO)2–NH3 hydrothermal method at 50 °C) were chosen to generate rod-shaped ZnO via layered basic zinc salts (LBZs) as intermediates. Both peptides affected the crystal formation process by moderating the amount of Zn2+ ions in solution (EC12 having a greater effect than EM12) but only EC12 was shown to interact with the solid phase(s) formed during the reaction. Depending on the peptide concentration used, EM-12 was shown to delay and/or suppress ZnO formation. In contrast, additions of EC-12, although leading to the retention of higher levels of Zn2+ ions in solution did not similarly delay the transformation of the intermediate phases to ZnO but were found to dramatically modify the morphology of ZnO crystallites with mushroom shaped crystals being formed. From the results of detailed materials characterization and changes in the morphology observed, the interactions between the peptide(s) and solution and solid state species present during the process of ZnO crystal formation in the presence of EM-12 and EC-12 are proposed

Lyapunov exponents from geodesic spread in configuration space

The exact form of the Jacobi -- Levi-Civita (JLC) equation for geodesic spread is here explicitly worked out at arbitrary dimension for the configuration space manifold M_E = {q in R^N | V(q) < E} of a standard Hamiltonian system, equipped with the Jacobi (or kinetic energy) metric g_J. As the Hamiltonian flow corresponds to a geodesic flow on (M_E,g_J), the JLC equation can be used to study the degree of instability of the Hamiltonian flow. It is found that the solutions of the JLC equation are closely resembling the solutions of the standard tangent dynamics equation which is used to compute Lyapunov exponents. Therefore the instability exponents obtained through the JLC equation are in perfect quantitative agreement with usual Lyapunov exponents. This work completes a previous investigation that was limited only to two-degrees of freedom systems.Comment: REVTEX file, 10 pages, 2 figure

The anomaly-induced effective action and natural inflation

The anomaly-induced inflation (modified Starobinsky model) is based on the application of the effective quantum field theory approach to the Early Universe. We present a brief general review of the model and show that it does not require a fine-tuning for the parameters of the theory or initial data, gives a real chance to meet a graceful exit to the FRW phase and also has positive features with respect to the metric perturbations.Comment: Invited talk at the International Workshop on Astroparticle and High Energy Physics, October 14 - 18, 2003, Valencia, Spai