Farmer preferences for milpa diversity and genetically modified maize in Mexico: a latent class approach

Maize, the second most globally important staple crop after wheat, originated in Mexico, where it is typically grown as part of a set of associated crops and practices called the milpa system. This ancient mode of production is practiced today in ways that vary by cultural context and agro-environment. Milpas generate private economic value, in terms of food security, diet quality and livelihoods, for the twomillion farm households who manage them. Furthermore, milpas generate public economic value by conserving agrobiodiversity, especially that of maize landraces, which have the potential to contribute unique traits needed by plant breeders for future crop improvement. In this way, milpas contribute to global food security in maize. However, the sustainability of the milpa system has been threatened by offfarm employment opportunities, long-distance migration, the increasing commercialization and intensification of maize production. Most recently, the milpa system has been negatively impacted by the contamination of maize landraces by genetically modified (GM) maize, cultivation of which is currently prohibited in Mexico. Here, we employ a choice experiment to estimate Mexican farmers’ valuation of three components of agrobiodiversity (crop species richness, maize variety richness and maize landraces), and examine their interest in cultivating GM maize. Choice experiment data, household level social, economic and demographic data, community level economic development data, and information on milpa production characteristics, and farmers’ attitudes and perceptions with regards to GM food and crops were collected from 420 farm households across 17 communities in three states of Mexico. Using these data, we analyzed the heterogeneity of farmer preferences using a latent class model, which can be used to simultaneously identify sample segments having homogenous preferences for milpa attributes, as well as farmer characteristics affecting preferences. We further identified the characteristics of farmers who are most likely to continue growing maize landraces and managing milpa systems, as well as those least likely to accept GM maize. Specifically, we identified three distinct segments of farmers: (i) Landrace Conservationists derive the highest private economic value from continued management of landraces and the highest economic loss from the possible adoption of GM maize. These farmers are young, dislike GM foods and crops, and are mainly located at the Oaxaca site, where transgenic constructs have been found in maize landraces. (ii) Milpa Diversity Managers derive the highest economic value from managing all of the agrobiodiversity components of the milpa, and suffer fewer losses from management of GM maize. These are older farmers, who are curious and like to experiment with maize varieties. (iii) Marginalized Maize Producers derive little value from crop species and maize variety richness, receive minimal value from maize landraces, and also experience the smallest negative impact from the adoption of GM maize. These farmers are located in the most isolated communities, have the lowest level of productivity, and oversee the largest milpa areas. They are also the most tightly integrated into the maize output markets. These novel findings have implications for debates concerning the adoption of GM maize in Mexico and its associated costs and benefits, as well as for the design of targeted, cost-effective conservation programs on farms

Sources of Productivity Growth in Wheat: A Review of Recent Performance and Medium- to Long-Term Prospects

Sources of yield growth in wheat are investigated based on a stylized framework of technical change. Evidence suggests that the relative contribution of input intensification to yield growth has diminished in recent years and is likely to continue to decline in the future. One potential source of yield growth in wheat during the medium to long term is improved efficiency of input use, rather than input intensification, through sustainable wheat production practices rather than pure input increases. Other large gains could be made with continuous adoption of newer and better modern varieties based on advances in wheat breeding. Wide crossing and biotechnology could improve the stability of wheat yields in the intermediate term; their long-term impact on yield under optimal conditions is less certain. World wheat demand is likely to grow more slowly over the next 30 years than it did in the past 30 years. At the same time, a wider variety of technological options will need to be tapped over the next three decades to achieve the necessary gains in wheat yields. Research costs per unit of increased wheat production are likely to be somewhat higher. Nonetheless, continued investment in wheat research is necessary to achieve production levels consistent with constant or slowly declining real world wheat prices.Crop Production/Industries,

On farm conservation of rice biodiversity in Nepal: a simultaneous estimation approach

"This paper presents an empirical case study about farmer management of rice genetic resources in two communities of Nepal, drawing on interdisciplinary, participatory research that involved farmers, rice geneticists, and social scientists. The decision-making process of farm households is modeled and estimated in order to provide information for the design of community-based conservation programs. A bivariate model with sample selection treats the simultaneous process of whether farmers decide to plant landraces or modern varieties, and whether the landraces they choose to plant constitute genetic diversity of interest for future crop improvement. Findings show that the two landrace choices are affected by different social and economic factors. The estimation procedure demonstrates that in certain cases, however, the decision processes are interrelated. Policies to promote the conservation of local rice diversity will need to take both processes into account. Fitted equations are then used to compare the likelihood that households targeted for conservation according to one set of conservation criteria also meet other conservation criteria. Households most likely to plant landraces identified as important for crop improvement also grow richer, more spatially diverse rice varieties. In these communities, few policy trade-offs would result from employing one set of criteria instead of the other." Authors' AbstractLandraces, Crop diversity,

Population biology of Octopus vulgaris on the temperate south-eastern coast of South Africa

Population structure and biology of Octopus vulgaris was investigated along the south-eastern coast of South Africa. Samples were collected inter- and sub-tidally as a precursor to the establishment of an experimental octopus fishery in the region. In total, 300 (intertidal) and 147 (subtidal) O. vulgaris were collected over a two year period. Females were found to dominate the intertidal area (sex ratio 2:1), while no difference was found subtidally (sex ratio 1:1). Of those collected intertidally, immature females were most prevalent while males ranged from immature to mature. Mature females were only found subtidally. A marked size difference was apparent, with the subtidal octopus being substantially larger. Although brooding females were found throughout the year, numbers peaked in summer. Individual fecundity ranged between 42,000–790,000 eggs. The total number of eggs produced and the number of eggs per egg string were correlated to female size. Diet did not vary greatly between the inter- and sub-tidal areas, with the main prey items being crustaceans, teleosts and octopus. It appears that the immature females use the intertidal area to feed and grow, before migrating to deeper areas to mature and spawn

RXTE observations of the dipping low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1624-49

We analyse ~ 360 ks of archival data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) of the 21 hr orbital period dipping low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1624-49. We find that outside the dips the tracks in the colour-colour and hardness-intensity diagrams (CDs and HIDs) are reminiscent of those of atoll sources in the middle and upper parts of the banana branch. The tracks show secular shifts up to ~ 10%. We study the power spectrum of 4U 1624-49 as a function of the position in the CD. This is the first time power spectra of this source are presented. No quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are found. The power spectra are dominated by very low frequency noise (VLFN), characteristic for atoll sources in the banana state, and band limited noise (BLN) which is not reliably detected but may, uncharacteristically, strengthen and increase in frequency with spectral hardness. The VLFN fits to a power law, which becomes steeper when the source moves to the harder part of the CD. We conclude that 4U 1624-49 is an atoll source which in our observations is in the upper banana branch. Combining this with the high (0.5-0.7 L_Edd) luminosity, the long-term flux stability of the source as seen with the RXTE All-Sky Monitor (ASM), and with the fact that it is an X-ray dip source, we conclude that 4U 1624-49 is most likely a GX atoll source such as GX 3+1 and GX 9+9, but seen edge on.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in A&A. This version: a few typos correcte

Existence and uniqueness of limit cycles in a class of second order ODE's with inseparable mixed terms

We prove a uniqueness result for limit cycles of the second order ODE $\ddot x + \dot x \phi(x,\dot x) + g(x) = 0$. Under mild additional conditions, we show that such a limit cycle attracts every non-constant solution. As a special case, we prove limit cycle's uniqueness for an ODE studied in \cite{ETA} as a model of pedestrians' walk. This paper is an extension to equations with a non-linear $g(x)$ of the results presented in \cite{S}

Separation of complexity classes in Koiran's weak model

AbstractWe continue the study of complexity classes over the weak model introduced by P. Koiran. In particular we provide several separations of complexity classes, the most remarkable being the strict inclusion of P in NP. Other separations concern classes defined by weak polynomial time over parallel or alternating machines as well as over nondeterministic machines whose guesses are required to be 0 or 1

Measuring on Farm Diversity and Determinants of Barley Diversity in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Maintaining on-farm diversity of crop varieties has received increasing attention as a strategy for mitigating production risk and protecting food security in resource-poor farming systems with few opportunities for insurance or trade. Barley is grown under a wide range of environmental conditions and in marginal areas or seasons where the production of other cereals is limited. Food consumption preferences and variable tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses influence the mixture and number of varieties to be grown. Phenotypic diversity was determined using Shannon diversity index. An econometric approach has been applied to identify the social and economic factors that influence levels of diversity maintained on-farm. A high phenotypic diversity index (0.79) was recorded from sampled barley varieties. Censored regression indicates that physical characteristics of the farm (land fragmentation index, farm size), agro climatic features of the site (altitude, rainfall, temperature) and household characteristics (only number of children) had a significant and positive impact on diversity and area allocation of barley. The significant negative relation of number of extension contact with barley diversity implies further attention and analysis. Key words: On farm diversity, Determinants of diversity, On farm conservation, Diversity inde