Cancer recurrence times from a branching process model

As cancer advances, cells often spread from the primary tumor to other parts of the body and form metastases. This is the main cause of cancer related mortality. Here we investigate a conceptually simple model of metastasis formation where metastatic lesions are initiated at a rate which depends on the size of the primary tumor. The evolution of each metastasis is described as an independent branching process. We assume that the primary tumor is resected at a given size and study the earliest time at which any metastasis reaches a minimal detectable size. The parameters of our model are estimated independently for breast, colorectal, headneck, lung and prostate cancers. We use these estimates to compare predictions from our model with values reported in clinical literature. For some cancer types, we find a remarkably wide range of resection sizes such that metastases are very likely to be present, but none of them are detectable. Our model predicts that only very early resections can prevent recurrence, and that small delays in the time of surgery can significantly increase the recurrence probability.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, 4 table

Variation in treatment and survival of older patients with non-metastatic breast cancer in five European countries: a population-based cohort study from the EURECCA Breast Cancer Group

Surgical oncolog

Variation in treatment and survival of older patients with non-metastatic breast cancer in five European countries: A population-based cohort study from the EURECCA Breast Cancer Group

Background: Older patients are poorly represented in breast cancer research and guidelines do not provide evidence based recommendations for this specific group. We compared treatment strategies and survival outcomes between European countries and assessed whether variance in treatment patterns may be associated with variation in survival. Methods: Population-based study including patients aged ≥ 70 with non-metastatic BC from cancer registries from the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, England and Greater Poland. Proportions of local and systemic treatments, five-year relative survival and relative excess risks (RER) between countries were calculated. Results: In total, 236,015 patients were included. The proportion of stage I BC receiving endocrine therapy ranged from 19.6% (Netherlands) to 84.6% (Belgium). The proportion of stage III BC receiving no breast surgery varied between 22.0% (Belgium) and 50.8% (Ireland). For stage I BC, relative survival was lower in England compared with Belgium (RER 2.96, 95%CI 1.30-6.72, P <.001). For stage III BC, England, Ireland and Greater Poland showed significantly worse relative survival compared with Belgium. Conclusions: There is substantial variation in treatment strategies and survival outcomes in elderly with BC in Europe. For early-stage BC, we observed large variation in endocrine therapy but no variation in relative survival, suggesting potential overtreatment. For advanced BC, we observed higher survival in countries with lower proportions of omission of surgery, suggesting potential undertreatment

Plasma protein changes reflect colorectal cancer development and associated inflammation

Abstract Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common malignancy and the second leading cause of death worldwide. Efficient non-invasive blood-based biomarkers for CRC early detection and prognosis are urgently needed. Methods: To identify novel potential plasma biomarkers, we applied a proximity extension assay (PEA), an antibody-based proteomics strategy to quantify the abundance of plasma proteins in CRC development and cancer-associated inflammation from few μL of plasma sample. Results: Among the 690 quantified proteins, levels of 202 plasma proteins were significantly changed in CRC patients compared to age-and-sex-matched healthy subjects. We identified novel protein changes involved in Th17 activity, oncogenic pathways, and cancer-related inflammation with potential implications in the CRC diagnosis. Moreover, the interferon γ (IFNG), interleukin (IL) 32, and IL17C were identified as associated with the early stages of CRC, whereas lysophosphatidic acid phosphatase type 6 (ACP6), Fms-related tyrosine kinase 4 (FLT4), and MANSC domain-containing protein 1 (MANSC1) were correlated with the late-stages of CRC. Discussion: Further study to characterize the newly identified plasma protein changes from larger cohorts will facilitate the identification of potential novel diagnostic, prognostic biomarkers for CRC