\u27Traffic-light\u27 nutrition labelling and \u27junk-food\u27 tax : a modelled comparison of cost-effectiveness for obesity prevention

Introduction: Cost-effectiveness analyses are important tools in efforts to prioritise interventions for obesity prevention.Modelling facilitates evaluation of multiple scenarios with varying assumptions. This study compares the cost-effectiveness ofconservative scenarios for two commonly proposed policy-based interventions: front-of-pack &lsquo;traffic-light&rsquo; nutrition labelling(traffic-light labelling) and a tax on unhealthy foods (&lsquo;junk-food&rsquo; tax).Methods: For traffic-light labelling, estimates of changes in energy intake were based on an assumed 10% shift in consumptiontowards healthier options in four food categories (breakfast cereals, pastries, sausages and preprepared meals) in 10% of adults. For the &lsquo;junk-food&rsquo; tax, price elasticities were used to estimate a change in energy intake in response to a 10% price increase in seven food categories (including soft drinks, confectionery and snack foods). Changes in population weight and body mass index by sex were then estimated based on these changes in population energy intake, along with subsequent impacts on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Associated resource use was measured and costed using pathway analysis, based on a health sector perspective (with some industry costs included). Costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2003 Australian adult population.Results: Both interventions resulted in reduced mean weight (traffic-light labelling: 1.3 kg (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.2;1.4); &lsquo;junk-food&rsquo; tax: 1.6 kg (95% UI: 1.5; 1.7)); and DALYs averted (traffic-light labelling: 45 100 (95% UI: 37 700; 60 100);&lsquo;junk-food&rsquo; tax: 559 000 (95% UI: 459 500; 676 000)). Cost outlays were AUD81 million (95% UI: 44.7; 108.0) for traffic-lightlabelling and AUD18 million (95% UI: 14.4; 21.6) for &lsquo;junk-food&rsquo; tax. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed both interventions were&lsquo;dominant&rsquo; (effective and cost-saving).Conclusion: Policy-based population-wide interventions such as traffic-light nutrition labelling and taxes on unhealthy foods arelikely to offer excellent &lsquo;value for money&rsquo; as obesity prevention measures.<br /

Photonically enabled communication systems beyond 1000 GHz

This paper presents a review of the recent development and research work on InP devices and their associated systems to generate and detect signal beyond 1 THz. The potential of the technology and the remaining challenges are also discussed. The paper will present recent results on laser sources that could be used as the basis of the THz sources as well as a set of potential THz emitters such as the UTC photodiode which has already permitted up to 25 muW to be emitted at 1 THz

Stress induced hyperglycemia and the subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes in survivors of critical illness

OBJECTIVE: Stress induced hyperglycemia occurs in critically ill patients who have normal glucose tolerance following resolution of their acute illness. The objective was to evaluate the association between stress induced hyperglycemia and incident diabetes in survivors of critical illness. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: All adult patients surviving admission to a public hospital intensive care unit (ICU) in South Australia between 2004 and 2011. PATIENTS: Stress induced hyperglycemia was defined as a blood glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/L (200 mg/dL) within 24 hours of ICU admission. Prevalent diabetes was identified through ICD-10 coding or prior registration with the Australian National Diabetes Service Scheme (NDSS). Incident diabetes was identified as NDSS registration beyond 30 days after hospital discharge until July 2015. The predicted risk of developing diabetes was described as sub-hazard ratios using competing risk regression. Survival was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. MAIN RESULTS: Stress induced hyperglycemia was identified in 2,883 (17%) of 17,074 patients without diabetes. The incidence of type 2 diabetes following critical illness was 4.8% (821 of 17,074). The risk of diabetes in patients with stress induced hyperglycemia was approximately double that of those without (HR 1.91 (95% CI 1.62, 2.26), p<0.001) and was sustained regardless of age or severity of illness. CONCLUSIONS: Stress induced hyperglycemia identifies patients at subsequent risk of incident diabetes.Mark P. Plummer, Mark E. Finnis, Liza K. Phillips, Palash Kar, Shailesh Bihari, Vishwanath Biradar, Stewart Moodie, Michael Horowitz, Jonathan E. Shaw, Adam M. Dean

The effect of gender and age on the association between weight status and health-related quality of life in Australian adolescents

Evidence suggests an inverse relationship between excess weight and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in children and adolescents, however little is known about whether this association is moderated by variables such as gender and age. This study aimed to investigate these relationships

Development and application of model of resource utilization, costs, and outcomes for stroke (MORUCOS): an Australian economic model for stroke

Objectives: To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]).Methods: The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions.Results: The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$15,117 versus AUD$17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997).Conclusions: MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model

Development and application of model of resource utilization, costs, and outcomes for stroke (MORUCOS): an Australian economic model for stroke

Objectives: To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]).Methods: The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions.Results: The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$15,117 versus AUD$17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997).Conclusions: MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model

Obesity-related health impacts of fuel excise taxation- an evidence review and cost-effectiveness study

BackgroundReducing automobile dependence and improving rates of active transport may reduce the impact of obesogenic environments, thereby decreasing population prevalence of obesity and other diseases where physical inactivity is a risk factor. Increasing the relative cost of driving by an increase in fuel taxation may therefore be a promising public health intervention for obesity prevention.MethodsA scoping review of the evidence for obesity or physical activity effect of changes in fuel price or taxation was undertaken. Potential health benefits of an increase in fuel excise taxation in Australia were quantified using Markov modelling to simulate obesity, injury and physical activity related health impacts of a fuel excise taxation intervention for the 2010 Australian population. Health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained and healthcare cost savings from diseases averted were estimated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were reported and results were tested through sensitivity analysis.ResultsLimited evidence on the effect of policies such as fuel taxation on health-related behaviours currently exists. Only three studies were identified reporting associations between fuel price or taxation and obesity, whilst nine studies reported associations specifically with physical activity, walking or cycling. Estimates of the cross price elasticity of demand for public transport with respect to fuel price vary, with limited consensus within the literature on a probable range for the Australian context. Cost-effectiveness modelling of a AUD0.10 per litre increase in fuel excise taxation using a conservative estimate of cross price elasticity for public transport suggests that the intervention would be cost-effective from a limited societal perspective (237 HALYs gained, AUD2.6 M in healthcare cost savings), measured against a comparator of no additional increase in fuel excise. Under &ldquo;best case&rdquo; assumptions, the intervention would be more cost-effective (3181 HALYs gained, AUD34.2 M in healthcare cost savings).ConclusionsExploratory analysis suggests that an intervention to increase fuel excise taxation may deliver obesity and physical activity related benefits. Whilst such an intervention has significant potential for cost-effectiveness, potential equity and acceptability impacts would need to be minimised. A better understanding of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a range of transport interventions is required in order to achieve more physically active transport environments.<br /

Observation of Sommerfeld precursors on a fluid surface

We report the observation of two types of Sommerfeld precursors (or forerunners) on the surface of a layer of mercury. When the fluid depth increases, we observe a transition between these two precursor surface waves in good agreement with the predictions of asymptotic analysis. At depths thin enough compared to the capillary length, high frequency precursors propagate ahead of the ''main signal'' and their period and amplitude, measured at a fixed point, increase in time. For larger depths, low frequency ''precursors'' follow the main signal with decreasing period and amplitude. These behaviors are understood in the framework of the analysis first introduced for linear transient electromagnetic waves in a dielectric medium by Sommerfeld and Brillouin [1].Comment: to be published in Physical Review Letter