Selection of provenances to adapt tropical pine forestry to climate change on the basis of climate analogs

Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii play an important role in the forestry sector in the tropics and subtropics and, in recent decades, members of the International Tree Breeding and Conservation Program (Camcore) at North Carolina State University have established large, multi-site provenance trials for these pine species. The data collected in these trials provide valuable information about species and provenance choice for plantation establishment in many regions with different climates. Since climate is changing rapidly, it may become increasingly difficult to choose the right species and provenance to plant. In this study, growth performance of plantings in Colombia, Brazil and South Africa was correlated to the degree of climatic dissimilarity between planting sites. Results are used to assess the suitability of seed material under a changing climate for four P. patula provenances and six P. tecunumanii provenances. For each provenance, climate dissimilarities based on standardized Euclidean distances were calculated and statistically related to growth performances. We evaluated the two methods of quantifying climate dissimilarity with extensive field data based on the goodness of fit and statistical significance of the climate distance relation to differences in height growth. The best method was then used as a predictor of a provenance change in height growth. The provenance-specific models were used to predict provenance performance under different climate change scenarios. The developed provenance-specific models were able to significantly relate climate similarity to different growth performances for five out of six P. tecunumanii provenances. For P. patula provenances, we did not find any correlation. Results point towards the importance of the identification of sites with stable climates where high yields are achievable. In such sites, fast-growing P. tecunumanii provenances with a high but narrow growth optimum can be planted. At sites with climate change of uncertain direction and magnitude, the choice of P. patula provenances, with greater tolerance towards different temperature and precipitation regimes, is recommended. Our results indicate that the analysis of provenance trial data with climate similarity models helps us to (1) maintain plantation productivity in a rapidly changing environment; and (2) improve our understanding of tree species’ adaptation to a changing climate

Identifying tree populations for conservation action through geospatial analyses

Rapid development of information and communication technologies has made it possible to easily collect georeferenced information on species and their environment, and to use it for analyzing biological diversity, its distribution and threats to it. Such analyses can importantly inform development of conservation strategies and priorities, especially across countries or species distribution ranges (Guarino et al. 2002). Data for spatial analyses on species or genetic diversity and its distribution are collected in specifically designed studies, obtained from existing records of species occurrence, or both. Observations may be complemented by species distribution modelling, where the potential occurrence of a species is predicted based on its documented geographic distribution and climate in those areas. Results on the distribution of diversity, documented or modelled, can then be compared, for example, with existing protected areas, rates of forest degradation, threats of environmental changes, or socio-economic indicators, to identify priority tree populations and tailor strategies for their conservation and sustainable use (Pautasso 2009). In this paper recent case studies on spatial biodiversity analyses across the tropics are presented, demonstrating how such analyses can help to identify most unique or most threatened populations of a tree species for conservation actions. Insights on initiating collaborative research on diversity and distributions of important Asian tree species are also discussed

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a nurse-delivered intervention to improve adherence to treatment for HIV : a pragmatic, multicentre, open-label, randomised clinical trial

This trial was funded from public money by the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW; grant number 171002208). Aardex provided support on the development of the study website. We thank all the HIV nurses and physicians from the seven HIV clinics involved in the AIMS study for their input and collaboration (Academic Medical Centre, Slotervaart hospital, and St. Lucas-Andreas hospital, all in Amsterdam; the Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden; HAGA hospital, The Hague; Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam; and Isala clinic, Zwolle), the study participants, and the Stichting HIV Monitoring (SHM) for their support in accessing the SHM database for identifying patient inclusion criteria and developing the Markov model. Finally, we thank and remember Herman Schaalma (deceased) for his contribution to the study design and grant application.Peer reviewedPostprin