The Internet and the Future of Financial Services: Transparency, Differential Pricing and Disintermediation

The Internet has had a profound effect on the financial service sector, dramatically changing the cost and capabilities for marketing, distributing and servicing financial products and enabling new types of products and services to be developed. This is especially true for retail financial services where widespread adoption of the Internet, the standardization provided by the world-wide web, and the low cost of Internet communications and transactions have made it possible to reach customers electronically in ways that were prohibitively costly even 5 years ago; indeed, pre-Internet attempts at the online distribution of retail financial services were outright failures in the mid-1980s. The concurrent growth and de-facto standardization of Internet-enabled personal financial management software (e.g., Quicken and Microsoft Money) have also contributed to an increasing array of low cost and potentially richer ways to provide information and transaction services to customers. The growth in Internet-enabled products and service has been rapid in some sectors and slower in others. Retail brokerage has seen a dramatic change with more than 15% (Salomon Smith Barney, 2000) of brokerage assets now managed in on-line trading counts, and substantially more if "traditional" brokerage accounts and mutual funds with on-line access are included. Similarly, approximately 10 million US customers currently use on-line banking (O'Brien, 2000) and 39 of the top 100 banks offer fully functional internet banking (ePayNews, 2000). Many banks and brokerages are on their second or third release of their on-line delivery platform. Credit cards, while not radically transformed in operational aspects of the business, have begun to have some volume of new origination on-line. In addition, leading credit card companies such as Capital One Financial have been some of the largest "traditional" companies in the use of Internet advertising (see www.adrelevance.com, 1999). More regulated and complex financial products such as mortgages and insurance have had some origination volume on the Internet (an estimated $17Bn of mortgages will be originated and ~$400mm in insurance premiums will be sold online in 2000). For these sectors, the adoption of on-line origination has been much slower and concentrated in entrants, rather than incumbent firms. However, despite the small level of originations, the Internet has become a significant and growing source of product information - it is estimated that about 10% of insurance customers and 15% of mortgage customers have used the internet to shop for these products (Forrester, 1998; McVey, 2000). This may ultimately affect product purchase and pricing structure, irrespective of the delivery channel. Internet companies have also played a role in many other segments of the industry such as financial information and news, rating and comparison services, and even some areas where one might think the Internet would have a less significant role, such as financial planning and investment banking. While the continued growth rates are uncertain and the penetration for the more complex products has not yet been shown to be widespread, it is safe to conclude that the Internet will play a significant role in consumer financial services for a large subset of customers, and that this role will be significantly different across different sub-sectors of the financial industry. In discussions of the Internet impact on the financial services sector, the emphasis has often been placed on the direct cost-saving effects of using the Internet to provide transaction services. These potential cost savings are indeed significant and in the long term may lead to significant creation of value. However, there also substantial barriers to realizing much of this value. In some industries, such as the credit card industry, many of the potential gains from automation have already been realized, and in others, the gains may be concentrated in only a few areas of the value chain. For products which are sold through branches or agents (banking, mortgage and insurance), realization of cost savings will require a difficult and time consuming redesign of the retail delivery system. Finally, many of these efficiencies are accompanied by improved customer convenience. To the extent that consumers respond by consuming more services, particularly those that generate costs but not revenue, overall costs may not be substantially reduced. This has been the experience of previous innovations in retail financial service delivery such as automated teller machines (ATMs). Computers, and more recently the Internet, are best described as "general purpose technologies" (Brynjolfsson and Hitt, 2000), like the electric motor or the telegraph (Bresnehan and Trajtenberg, 1995). For general purpose technologies, most of the economic value they create is associated with their ability to enable complementary innovations in organization, market structure, and products and services. However, at the same time, these complementary changes are often disruptive to the existing structure of an industry (Tushman and Anderson, 1986; Bower and Christensen, 1995), leading to significant redistribution of value among industry participants and between producers and consumers. To understand the true impact of the Internet on the financial service industry, it is therefore necessary to identify how the Internet affects the critical drivers of industry structure, and how it enables or necessitates changes in products and services. This will necessarily be difficult, as it is hard to isolate the contribution of the Internet separately from the effects of other complementary innovations, and to distinguish Internet effects from other of long-term industry trends and exogenous factors. While obtaining precise numerical estimates of the productivity effects will be hard, in many cases the direction and general magnitude of the impact on productivity, profitability and consumer surplus (consumer value) will be clear. We see three principal issues that will determine the transformation of retail financial services: Transparency, or the ability of all market participants to determine the available range of prices for financial instruments and financial services; Differential pricing, in which finer and finer distinctions must be made among groups of customers, setting their prices based upon the revenue streams they generate, the costs to serve them, and their resulting profitability; Disintermediation or bypass, in which net-based direct interaction eliminates the role previously enjoyed by financial advisors, retail stock brokers, and insurance agents. Each of these will affect the roles to be played by financial service providers, the sources of profits available to them, and the strategies they may choose to pursue in order to earn those profits. However, different financial products will be affected differently by each of these issues in both the nature and the magnitude of the effect. In addition, these factors are often interdependent - for example, differential pricing is often a necessary response to increasing price transparency to prevent erosion of margins, and the ability to deliver sophisticated (although typically not complex) pricing strategies to customers may be affected by the incentives and structure of the distribution system. For these reasons, we will organize the remainder of the paper around the discussion of these effects as they apply within different sectors in financial services. The emphasis of our analysis will be on the primary sectors in retail financial services: credit cards, deposit banking, mortgages, brokerage, and insurance. Our focus is the retail segment because it has been the most radically transformed by the Internet to date, primarily because the retail business has the most to benefit from the reduction in customer interaction costs, the ability to reach mass markets, and the reduction in the role of geography in determining the strategies of financial services providers. Much of the computing- and communications-enabled transformation in the relationships among financial institutions or between financial institutions and consumers of wholesale financial services (for example, brokerage houses and exchanges, or large firms and their commercial lenders) have already occurred or were well underway before the Internet was commercialized. For these markets, the economics of computing and networking were still favorable under previous generations of technology. Many of the commercial financial services that are likely to be transformed by the Internet, at least in the medium term (3-5 years), are those that closely resemble retail services (such as commercial mortgage, short term lending, leasing, cash management, and the like). That is not to say that business to business (B2B) e-commerce opportunities do not exist in the financial sector - only that many of the medium term opportunities that are directly a result of the Internet are closely analogous to changes in the retail sector, and the others are probably more closely related to organizational and market innovation rather than a result of ubiquitous and low-cost communications technology.

Do Better Customers Utilize Electronic Distribution Channels: The Case of PC Banking

Firms are increasingly implementing electronic distribution strategies to augment existing physical infrastructure for product and service delivery. However, to date there has been little systematic study on how these distribution channels affect customer profitability. In this study, we explore the revenue enhancement potential for electronic delivery in retail banking by comparing customers who utilize personal-computer based home banking ("PC Banking) to other bank customers. Our results, based on case studies and detailed customer data from four institutions, suggest that while PC banking customers appear to be more profitable, most of the differences are due to unobservable characteristics of these customers that were present before PC banking was adopted. Demographic characteristics and changes in customer behavior following the adoption of the product account for only a small fraction of the overall differences. We conclude that, at least to date, the primary potential value of the product is in the retention of high value customers rather than cost savings or incremental sales. Our results also suggest that it is important to distinguish behavioral changes from pre-existing customer characteristics when evaluating the impact of added electronic delivery channels.

Vertical Scope Revisited: Transaction Costs vs Capabilities & Profit Opportunities in Mortgage Banking

What determines vertical scope? Transactions cost economics (TCE) has been the dominant paradigm for understanding "make" vs. "buy" choices. However, the traditional focus on empirically validating or refuting TCE has taken attention away from other possible drivers of scope, and it has rarely allowed us to understand the explanatory power of TCE versus other competing theories. This paper, using a particularly rich panel dataset from the Mortgage Banking industry, explores both the extent to which TCE predictions hold, and their ability to explain the variance in scope, when compared to all other possible drivers of integration. Using some direct measures of transaction costs, we observe that integration does mitigate risks; yet such risks and transaction costs do not seem to drive firm-level decisions of integration in retail production of loans. Rather, capability-driven and capacity- (or limit to growth-) driven considerations explain a significant amount of variance in our sample, under a variety of specifications and tests. We thus conclude that while TCE explanations of vertical scope are important, their impact is dwarfed by capability differences and by the desire of firms to leverage their capabilities and productive capacity by using the market.Mortgage Banking; Transaction Costs; Integration; Capabilities; Capacity Constraints; Limits to Growth

(SNP062) M.M. Hitt, Jr. interviewed by Dorothy Noble Smith, transcribed by Peggy C. Bradley

Records an interview with M.M. Hitt, Jr., whose father owned a general store in Luray, Virginia, at the turn of the 20th century. Mr. Hitt ran his own confectionery store in Luray, from 1911 to about 1930. Discusses the retail business at that time and his impressions of the mountain people who would patronize his store. Includes references to local entrepreneur, George Freeman Pollock, owner of nearby Skyland resort, and local Episcopal missionary, Mary Deaconess Hutton.https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/snp/1053/thumbnail.jp

Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence

Recently, the relative demand for skilled labor has increased dramatically. We investigate one of the causes, skill-biased technical change. Advances in information technology (IT) are among the most powerful forces bearing on the economy. Employers who use IT often make complementary innovations in their organizations and in the services they offer. Our hypothesis is that these co-inventions by IT users change the mix of skills that employers demand. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that it is a cluster of complementary changes involving IT, workplace organization and services that is the key skill-biased technical change. We examine new firm-level data linking several indicators of IT use, workplace organization, and the demand for skilled labor. In both a short-run factor demand framework and a production function framework, we find evidence for complementarity. IT use is complementary to a new workplace organization which includes broader job responsibilities for line workers, more decentralized decision-making, and more self-managing teams. In turn, both IT and that new organization are complements with worker skill, measured in a variety of ways. Further, the managers in our survey believe that IT increases skill requirements and autonomy among workers in their firms. Taken together, the results highlight the roles of both IT and IT-enabled organizational change as important components of the skill-biased technical change.

Information Technology and Firm Boundaries: Evidence from Panel Data

Previous literature has suggested that information technology (IT) can affect firm bound- aries by changing the costs of coordinating economic activity within and between firms (internal and external coordination). This paper examines the empirical relationship between IT and firm structure and evaluates whether this structure is consistent with prior arguments about IT and coordination. We formulate an empirical model to relate the use of information technology capital to vertical integration and diversification. This model is tested using an 8- year panel data set of information technology capital stock, firm structure, and relevant control variables for 549 large firms. Overall, increased use of IT is found to be associated with substantial decreases in vertical integration and weak increases in diversification. In addition, firms that are less vertically integrated and more diversified have a higher demand for IT capital. While we cannot rule out all alternative explanations for these results, they are consistent with previous theoretical arguments that both internal and external coordination costs are reduced by IT

Comparative analysis of techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

Performability analysis is a technique developed for evaluating the effectiveness of fault-tolerant computing systems in multiphase missions. Performability was evaluated for its accuracy, practical usefulness, and relative cost. The evaluation was performed by applying performability and the fault tree method to a set of sample problems ranging from simple to moderately complex. The problems involved as many as five outcomes, two to five mission phases, permanent faults, and some functional dependencies. Transient faults and software errors were not considered. A different analyst was responsible for each technique. Significantly more time and effort were required to learn performability analysis than the fault tree method. Performability is inherently as accurate as fault tree analysis. For the sample problems, fault trees were more practical and less time consuming to apply, while performability required less ingenuity and was more checkable. Performability offers some advantages for evaluating very complex problems

A Comparison of Three Determinants of an Engagement Index for Use in a Simulated Flight Environment

The following report details a project design that is to be completed by the end of the year. Determining how engaged a person is at a task is rather difficult. There are many different ways to assess engagement. One such method is to use psychophysical measures. The current study focuses on three determinants of an engagement index proposed by researchers at NASA-Langley (Pope, A. T., Bogart, E. H., and Bartolome, D. S., 1995). The index (20 Beta/(Alpha+Theta)) uses EEG power bands to determine a person's level of engagement while performs a compensatory tracking task. The tracking task switches between manual and automatic modes. Participants each experience both positive and negative feedback within each trial of the three trials. The tracking task is altered in terms of difficulty depending on the participants current engagement index. The rationale of this study is to determine the optimal level of engagement to gain peak performance. The three determinants are based on an absolute index which differs from the past research which uses a slope index

Costly Bidding in Online Markets for IT Services

Internet-enabled markets are becoming viable venues for procurement of professional services. We investigate bidding behavior within the most active area of these early knowledge markets—the market for software development. These markets are important both because they provide an early view of the effectiveness of online service markets and because they have a potentially large impact on how software development services are procured and provided. Using auction theory, we develop a theoretical model that relates market characteristics to bidding and transaction behavior, taking into account costly bidding. We then test our model using data from an active online market for software development services, which yields contracts for 30%–40% of posted projects. In its current format, however, the studied market may induce excessive bidding by vendors. Consistent with our theoretical predictions and those of Carr (2003), higher-value projects attract significantly more bids, with lower average quality. Greater numbers of bids raise the cost to all participants, due to costly bidding and bid evaluation. Perhaps as a consequence, higher-value projects are also much less likely to be awarded

JOB HOPPING, KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS, AND REGIONAL RETURNS TO INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS

We show that substantial regional differences in returns to information technology (IT) investments by US firms are attributable in part to knowledge spillovers generated by the movements of IT workers among firms. We use a newly developed source of employee micro-data with employer identifiers and location information to model IT workers’ mobility patterns. Access to an external IT pool one standard deviation larger than the mean is associated with a 20% increase in the output elasticity of own IT investment. We discuss implications for managers and for policy makers