Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat

Projected climate changes will affect wheat crop production both in the main processes of plant growth and development but also in the occurrences and severities of plant diseases. We assessed the potential infection periods of wheat leaf rust (WLR) at two climatologically different sites in Luxembourg. A threshold-based model, taking hourly values of air temperatures, relative humidity and precipitation during night-time into account, was used for calculating favourable WLR infection days during three periods throughout the cropping season. Field experiments were conducted during the 2003–2013 period at the selected sites. Projected climate data, from a multi model ensemble of regional climate models (spatial resolution 25 km) as well as an additional projection with a higher spatial resolution of 1.3 km, were used for investigating the potential WLR infection periods for two future time spans. Results showed that the infections of WLR were satisfactorily simulated during the development of wheat at both sites for the 2003–2013 period. The probabilities of WLR detection were close to 1 and the critical success index ranged from 0.80 to 0.94 (perfect score = 1 for both). Moreover, the highest proportions of favourable days of WLR infection were simulated during spring and summer at both sites. Regional climate projections showed an increase in temperatures by 1.6 K for 2041–2050 and by 3.7 K for 2091–2100 compared to the reference period 1991–2000. Positive trends in favourable WLR infection conditions occur at both sites more conducive than in the reference period due to projected climatic conditions

Cinétique de décroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du blé d'hiver

Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area. A large number of agrometeorological models for crop yield assessment are available with various levels of complexity and empiricism. However, the current development of models for wheat yield forecasting does not always reflect the inclusion of the loss of valuable green area and its relation to biotic and abiotic processes in production situation. In this study the senescence phase of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is monitored through the GAI (Green Area Index), calculated from digital hemispherical photographies taken over plots in Belgium, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg and France. Two curve-fitting functions (modified Gompertz and modified logistic) are used to describe the senescence phase. Metrics derived from these functions and characterizing this phase (i.e. the maximum value of GAI, the senescence rate and the time taken to reach either 37% or 50% of the green surface in the senescent phase) are related to final grain yields. The regression-based models calculated with these metrics showed that final yield could be estimated with a coefficient of determination of 0.83 and a RMSE of 0.48 t·ha-1. Such simple models may be considered as a first yield estimates that may be performed in order to provide a better integrated yield assessment in operational systems. Indeed, estimation of cereal-crop production, particularly wheat, is considered as a priority in most crop research programs due to the relevance of food grain to world agricultural production

Asymptotic analysis of pollution filtration through thin random fissures between two porous media

We describe the asymptotic behaviour of a filtration problem from a contaminated porous medium to a non-contaminated porous medium through thin vertical fissures of fixed height h>0, of random thinness of order {\epsilon} and which are $\epsilon$-periodically distributed. We compute the limit velocity of the flow and the limit flux of pollutant at the interfaces between the two porous media and the intermediate one

Boundary Asymptotic Analysis for an Incompressible Viscous Flow: Navier Wall Laws

We consider a new way of establishing Navier wall laws. Considering a bounded domain $\Omega$ of R N , N=2,3, surrounded by a thin layer $\Sigma \epsilon$, along a part $\Gamma$2 of its boundary $\partial \Omega$, we consider a Navier-Stokes flow in $\Omega \cup \partial \Omega \cup \Sigma \epsilon$ with Reynolds' number of order 1/$\epsilon$ in $\Sigma \epsilon$. Using $\Gamma$-convergence arguments, we describe the asymptotic behaviour of the solution of this problem and get a general Navier law involving a matrix of Borel measures having the same support contained in the interface $\Gamma$2. We then consider two special cases where we characterize this matrix of measures. As a further application, we consider an optimal control problem within this context

Asymptotic behaviour of contact problems between two elastic materials through a fractal interface

AbstractTwo linear elastic materials are brought into contact along a fractal interface Σ. We suppose that the contact is perfect on small zones disposed on Σ. Using Γ-convergence arguments, we establish the possible limit contact laws which appear when letting the common size of these zones tend to 0. We also generalise these results to the case of more general obstacle problems on this fractal interface

Сядзем, мамулька

Сядзем, мамульк