Prediction of Customer Movements in Large Tourism Industries by the Means of Process Mining

Customer movements in large tourism industries (such as public transport systems, attraction parks or ski resorts) can be understood as business processes. Their processes describe the flow of persons through the networked systems, while Information Systems log the different steps. The prediction of how large numbers of customers will behave in the near future is a complex and yet unsolved challenge. However, the possible business benefits of predictive analytics in the tourism industry are manifold. We propose to approach this task with the yet unexploited appli-cation of predictive process mining. In a prototypical use case, we work together with two major European ski resorts. We implement a predictive process mining algorithm towards the goal of predicting near future lift arrivals of skiers within the ski resort in real-time. Furthermore, we present the results of our prototypical implementation and draw conclusions for future research in the area

The Long Shadow of Senescence: Age Impacts Survival and Territory Defense in Loons

Senescence, increased mortality that occurs among animals of advanced age, impacts behavior and ecology in many avian species. We investigated actuarial, reproductive, and behavioral senescence using capture, marking, and resighting data from a 26-year study of common loons (Gavia immer). Territorial residents of both sexes exhibited high annual survival (0.94) until their mid 20s, at which point survival fell to 0.76 and 0.77 in males and females, respectively. Sexual symmetry in actuarial senescence is somewhat surprising in this species, because males make a substantially greater investment in territory defense and chick-rearing and because males engage in lethal contests for territory ownership. Survival of displaced breeders (0.80) was lower than that of territorial residents in both young and old individuals. Old males and females also experienced slightly higher annual probability of eviction (0.16 for males; 0.17 for females) than prime-aged breeders (0.13 for both sexes), indicating senescence in territory defense. Prime-aged males reclaimed territories at a high rate (0.49), in contrast to females of the same age (0.33). However, old males resettled with success (0.35) similar to old females (0.31), suggesting that males decline in competitive ability as they age. Nonetheless males, but not females, showed an apparent increase in breeding success over the entire lifetime, a possible indication that very old males make a terminal investment in reproductive output at the cost of survival

A large-scale proteogenomics study of apicomplexan pathogens-Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum

Proteomics data can supplement genome annotation efforts, for example being used to confirm gene models or correct gene annotation errors. Here, we present a large‐scale proteogenomics study of two important apicomplexan pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum. We queried proteomics data against a panel of official and alternate gene models generated directly from RNASeq data, using several newly generated and some previously published MS datasets for this meta‐analysis. We identified a total of 201 996 and 39 953 peptide‐spectrum matches for T. gondii and N. caninum, respectively, at a 1% peptide FDR threshold. This equated to the identification of 30 494 distinct peptide sequences and 2921 proteins (matches to official gene models) for T. gondii, and 8911 peptides/1273 proteins for N. caninum following stringent protein‐level thresholding. We have also identified 289 and 140 loci for T. gondii and N. caninum, respectively, which mapped to RNA‐Seq‐derived gene models used in our analysis and apparently absent from the official annotation (release 10 from EuPathDB) of these species. We present several examples in our study where the RNA‐Seq evidence can help in correction of the current gene model and can help in discovery of potential new genes

Patterns of richness across forest beetle communities—A methodological comparison of observed and estimated species numbers

Abstract Species richness is a frequently used measure of biodiversity. The compilation of a complete species list is an often unattainable goal. Estimators of species richness have been developed to overcome this problem. While the use of these estimators is becoming increasingly popular, working with the observed number of species is still common practice. To assess whether patterns of beetle communities based on observed numbers may be compared among each other, we compared patterns from observed and estimated numbers of species for beetle communities in the canopy of the Leipzig floodplain forest. These patterns were species richness and the number of shared species among three tree species and two canopy strata. We tested the applicability of the asymptotic Chao1 estimator and the estimate provided by the nonasymptotic rarefaction–extrapolation method for all tree species and both upper canopy and lower canopy. In the majority of cases, the ranking patterns of species richness for host tree species and strata were the same for the observed and estimated number of species. The ranking patterns of the number of species shared among host tree species and strata, however, were significantly different between observed and estimated values. Our results indicate that the observed number of species under‐represents species richness and the number of shared species. However, ranking comparisons of published patterns based on the number of observed species may be acceptable for species richness but likely not reliable for the number of shared species. Further studies are needed to corroborate this conclusion. We encourage to use estimators and to provide open access to data to allow comparative assessments

Response of Common and Rare Beetle Species to Tree Species and Vertical Stratification in a Floodplain Forest

Vertical stratification and host tree species are factors with a high influence on the structure of communities of xylobiont beetles. However, little is known about how this influence varies between common and rare species. Based on estimated species richness, we compared alpha and beta diversity patterns of common and rare species in the canopy of the Leipzig floodplain forest to assess their response to vertical stratification and tree species. We used two measures of rarity: threat level in red lists and abundance based on octaves. The understory displayed a significantly higher number of common species than the canopy strata. Conversely, the canopy strata harbored a higher number of rare species. Turnover was always dominant over richness differences in beta diversity partitions. Using Raup–Crick null models and non-metric multidimensional scaling, we found that the vertical strata accounted for 19% of the overall beta diversity of common species and for 15% of the overall beta diversity of rare species. The tree species accounted for 7% of the overall beta diversity of the common species and 3% of the beta diversity of the rare species. Our results indicate that studies carried out in the understory alone do not allow drawing conclusions regarding the biodiversity in the canopy strata, and thus regarding the overall community structure of xylobiont beetles in the canopy.This study is kindly supported by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, funded by the German Research Foundation (FZT 118). The Article processing charges were funded by the Open Science Office of the Leipzig University Library.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio