Quantitative or momentum-based multi-style rotation? UK experience

The objective of this article is to examine whether short-term variation in the ranking of size and style index returns in the UK equity market is better predictable and exploitable by means of quantitative or momentum style-rotation strategies. Using UK index data, we assess the profitability of a number of long-only and long/short multi-stylerotation strategies based on these two alternative methods. The findings suggest that trading rules based on simple short-term momentum strategies are able to generate higher Sharpe ratios and greater end-of-period wealth at a reasonable level of transaction costs than our quantitatively based trading rules. This result is particularly pronounced among the long-only strategies

Evaluation of land surface models in reproducing satellite-derived LAI over the high-latitude northern hemisphere. Part I: Uncoupled DGVMs

PublishedJournal ArticleLeaf Area Index (LAI) represents the total surface area of leaves above a unit area of ground and is a key variable in any vegetation model, as well as in climate models. New high resolution LAI satellite data is now available covering a period of several decades. This provides a unique opportunity to validate LAI estimates from multiple vegetation models. The objective of this paper is to compare new, satellite-derived LAI measurements with modeled output for the Northern Hemisphere. We compare monthly LAI output from eight land surface models from the TRENDY compendium with satellite data from an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) from the latest version (third generation) of GIMMS AVHRR NDVI data over the period 1986-2005. Our results show that all the models overestimate the mean LAI, particularly over the boreal forest. We also find that seven out of the eight models overestimate the length of the active vegetation-growing season, mostly due to a late dormancy as a result of a late summer phenology. Finally, we find that the models report a much larger positive trend in LAI over this period than the satellite observations suggest, which translates into a higher trend in the growing season length. These results highlight the need to incorporate a larger number of more accurate plant functional types in all models and, in particular, to improve the phenology of deciduous trees. © 2013 by the authors.The corresponding author also thanks the CONACYT-CECTI and the University of Exeter for their funding during the PhD studies. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00256.1.To assess the climate impacts of historical and projected land cover change in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), new time series of transient Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4) plant functional type (PFT) and wood harvest parameters have been developed. The new parameters capture the dynamics of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) land cover change and wood harvest trajectories for the historical period from 1850 to 2005 and for the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios from 2006 to 2100. Analysis of the biogeochemical impacts of land cover change in CCSM4 reveals that the model produced a historical cumulative land use flux of 127.7 PgC from 1850 to 2005, which is in general agreement with other global estimates of 156 PgC for the same period. The biogeophysical impacts of the transient land cover change parameters were cooling of the near-surface atmosphere over land by −0.1°C, through increased surface albedo and reduced shortwave radiation absorption. When combined with other transient climate forcings, the higher albedo from land cover change was counteracted by decreasing snow albedo from black carbon deposition and high-latitude warming. The future CCSM4 RCP simulations showed that the CLM4 transient PFT parameters can be used to represent a wide range of land cover change scenarios. In the reforestation scenario of RCP 4.5, CCSM4 simulated a drawdown of 67.3 PgC from the atmosphere into the terrestrial ecosystem and product pools. By contrast the RCP 8.5 scenario with deforestation and high wood harvest resulted in the release of 30.3 PgC currently stored in the ecosystem

Acute myeloid leukemia in patients previously diagnosed with breast cancer: Experience of the GIMEMA group

Objective: To evaluate in a multicenter retrospective study, the clinical and laboratory characteristics and the outcome of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) previously diagnosed with breast cancer (BC) among an adult acute leukemia population. Patients and methods: Between June 1992 and July 1996, 3934 new cases of adults with acute leukemia were recorded in GIMEMA Archive of Adult Acute Leukemia (2964 AML, 901 ALL, 69 acute leukemia expressing both myeloid and lymphoid surface markers). Results: Two hundred patients (5.1%) presented with a history of previous malignancy (21 of them were affected by ALL and 179 by AML). Among sAML, 37 patients (29%) had a previous breast cancer. They consisted of 36 females and 1 male, median age 56 years, range 34-87. The median latency between the 2 malignancies was 54 months (range 5-379). Twenty-seven patients received chemo- and/or radiotherapy for breast cancer (7 only chemotherapy, 6 only radiotherapy, and 14 combined treatment). All patients were surgically treated but in 10 patients surgical debridement was the sole therapy for breast cancer. The drugs most frequently employed were alkylating agents (18 patients), topoisomerase II inhibitors (9 patients), antimetabolites (20 patients) (CMF, CEF and MMM combinations). At onset of sAML the median WBC count was 7.7 × 109/1 (0.8-153) and the median platelet count was 33.5 × 109/1 (3-305). Considering morphological features, FAB subtypes were 4 M0, 5 M1, 11 M2, 5 M3, 8 M4, 3 M5, and 1 M6. Cytogenetic study was performed on 28 patients and 12 of them presented abnormalities. It is noteworthy that chromosome 5 or 7 abnormalities (typically observed in those patients treated with alkylating agents) were present only in three cases. Thirty-four patients received chemotherapy for sAML, and twenty-five of them achieved a CR (74%), with a median duration of twenty-eight weeks (5-280+). The overall survival was 8 months (1-80+). Discussion: The high number of sAML we observed in patients with a previous breast cancer, may be due to the fact that this malignancy is the most frequent neoplasm in women and by the high probability of cure with a consequent long disease-free survival. Our results suggest that the risk of sAML after recovery from breast cancer is increasing due to the rise in the number of patients cured from breast cancer, and in the future could be a relevant problem for haematologists