Ray stability in weakly range-dependent sound channels

Ray stability is investigated in environments consisting of a range-independent background sound-speed profile on which a range-dependent perturbation, such as that produced by internal waves in deep ocean environments, is superimposed. Numerical results show that ray stability is strongly influenced by the background sound speed profile. Ray instability is shown to increase with increasing magnitude of alpha := I omega^{prime} / omega, where 2 pi / omega(I) is the range of a ray double loop and I is the ray action variable. The mechanism, shear-induced instability enhancement, by which alpha controls ray instability is described.Comment: To appear in JAS

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Temperature and Emission-Measure Profiles Along Long-Lived Solar Coronal Loops Observed with TRACE

We report an initial study of temperature and emission measure distributions along four steady loops observed with the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) at the limb of the Sun. The temperature diagnostic is the filter ratio of the extreme-ultraviolet 171-angstrom and 195-angstrom passbands. The emission measure diagnostic is the count rate in the 171-angstrom passband. We find essentially no temperature variation along the loops. We compare the observed loop structure with theoretical isothermal and nonisothermal static loop structure.Comment: 10 pages, 3 postscript figures (LaTeX, uses aaspp4.sty). Accepted by ApJ Letter

Comparison of Short-Wavelength Reduced-Illuminance and Conventional Autofluorescence Imaging in Stargardt Macular Dystrophy

Purpose To compare grading results between short-wavelength reduced-illuminance and conventional autofluorescence imaging in Stargardt macular dystrophy. Design Reliability study. Methods setting: Moorfields Eye Hospital, London (United Kingdom). patients: Eighteen patients (18 eyes) with Stargardt macular dystrophy. observation procedures: A series of 3 fundus autofluorescence images using 3 different acquisition parameters on a custom-patched device were obtained: (1) 25% laser power and total sensitivity 87; (2) 25% laser power and freely adjusted sensitivity; and (3) 100% laser power and freely adjusted total sensitivity (conventional). The total area of 2 hypoautofluorescent lesion types (definitely decreased autofluorescence and poorly demarcated questionably decreased autofluorescence) was measured. main outcome measures: Agreement in grading between the 3 imaging methods was assessed by kappa coefficients (κ) and intraclass correlation coefficients. Results The mean ± standard deviation area for images acquired with 25% laser power and freely adjusted total sensitivity was 2.04 ± 1.87 mm2 for definitely decreased autofluorescence (n = 15) and 1.86 ± 2.14 mm2 for poorly demarcated questionably decreased autofluorescence (n = 12). The intraclass correlation coefficient (95% confidence interval) was 0.964 (0.929, 0.999) for definitely decreased autofluorescence and 0.268 (0.000, 0.730) for poorly demarcated questionably decreased autofluorescence. Conclusions Short-wavelength reduced-illuminance and conventional fundus autofluorescence imaging showed good concordance in assessing areas of definitely decreased autofluorescence. However, there was significantly higher variability between imaging modalities for assessing areas of poorly demarcated questionably decreased autofluorescence