Mean-Payoff Optimization in Continuous-Time Markov Chains with Parametric Alarms

Continuous-time Markov chains with alarms (ACTMCs) allow for alarm events that can be non-exponentially distributed. Within parametric ACTMCs, the parameters of alarm-event distributions are not given explicitly and can be subject of parameter synthesis. An algorithm solving the $\varepsilon$-optimal parameter synthesis problem for parametric ACTMCs with long-run average optimization objectives is presented. Our approach is based on reduction of the problem to finding long-run average optimal strategies in semi-Markov decision processes (semi-MDPs) and sufficient discretization of parameter (i.e., action) space. Since the set of actions in the discretized semi-MDP can be very large, a straightforward approach based on explicit action-space construction fails to solve even simple instances of the problem. The presented algorithm uses an enhanced policy iteration on symbolic representations of the action space. The soundness of the algorithm is established for parametric ACTMCs with alarm-event distributions satisfying four mild assumptions that are shown to hold for uniform, Dirac and Weibull distributions in particular, but are satisfied for many other distributions as well. An experimental implementation shows that the symbolic technique substantially improves the efficiency of the synthesis algorithm and allows to solve instances of realistic size.Comment: This article is a full version of a paper accepted to the Conference on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems (QEST) 201

DiVinE-CUDA - A Tool for GPU Accelerated LTL Model Checking

In this paper we present a tool that performs CUDA accelerated LTL Model Checking. The tool exploits parallel algorithm MAP adjusted to the NVIDIA CUDA architecture in order to efficiently detect the presence of accepting cycles in a directed graph. Accepting cycle detection is the core algorithmic procedure in automata-based LTL Model Checking. We demonstrate that the tool outperforms non-accelerated version of the algorithm and we discuss where the limits of the tool are and what we intend to do in the future to avoid them

Bayesian statistical parameter synthesis for linear temporal properties of stochastic models

Parameterized verification of temporal properties is an active research area, being extremely relevant for model-based design of complex systems. In this paper, we focus on parameter synthesis for stochastic models, looking for regions of the parameter space where the model satisfies a linear time specification with probability greater (or less) than a given threshold. We propose a statistical approach relying on simulation and leveraging a machine learning method based on Gaussian Processes for statistical parametric verification, namely Smoothed Model Checking. By injecting active learning ideas, we obtain an efficient synthesis routine which is able to identify the target regions with statistical guarantees. Our approach, which is implemented in Python, scales better than existing ones with respect to state space of the model and number of parameters. It is applicable to linear time specifications with time constraints and to more complex stochastic models than Markov Chains

Synthesizing and tuning chemical reaction networks with specified behaviours

We consider how to generate chemical reaction networks (CRNs) from functional specifications. We propose a two-stage approach that combines synthesis by satisfiability modulo theories and Markov chain Monte Carlo based optimisation. First, we identify candidate CRNs that have the possibility to produce correct computations for a given finite set of inputs. We then optimise the reaction rates of each CRN using a combination of stochastic search techniques applied to the chemical master equation, simultaneously improving the of correct behaviour and ruling out spurious solutions. In addition, we use techniques from continuous time Markov chain theory to study the expected termination time for each CRN. We illustrate our approach by identifying CRNs for majority decision-making and division computation, which includes the identification of both known and unknown networks.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, appeared the proceedings of the 21st conference on DNA Computing and Molecular Programming, 201

Precise parameter synthesis for stochastic biochemical systems

We consider the problem of synthesising rate parameters for stochastic biochemical networks so that a given time-bounded CSL property is guaranteed to hold, or, in the case of quantitative properties, the probability of satisfying the property is maximised or minimised. Our method is based on extending CSL model checking and standard uniformisation to parametric models, in order to compute safe bounds on the satisfaction probability of the property. We develop synthesis algorithms that yield answers that are precise to within an arbitrarily small tolerance value. The algorithms combine the computation of probability bounds with the refinement and sampling of the parameter space. Our methods are precise and efficient, and improve on existing approximate techniques that employ discretisation and refinement. We evaluate the usefulness of the methods by synthesising rates for three biologically motivated case studies: infection control for a SIR epidemic model; reliability analysis of molecular computation by a DNA walker; and bistability in the gene regulation of the mammalian cell cycle

A Novel Method to Verify Multilevel Computational Models of Biological Systems Using Multiscale Spatio-Temporal Meta Model Checking

Insights gained from multilevel computational models of biological systems can be translated into real-life applications only if the model correctness has been verified first. One of the most frequently employed in silico techniques for computational model verification is model checking. Traditional model checking approaches only consider the evolution of numeric values, such as concentrations, over time and are appropriate for computational models of small scale systems (e.g. intracellular networks). However for gaining a systems level understanding of how biological organisms function it is essential to consider more complex large scale biological systems (e.g. organs). Verifying computational models of such systems requires capturing both how numeric values and properties of (emergent) spatial structures (e.g. area of multicellular population) change over time and across multiple levels of organization, which are not considered by existing model checking approaches. To address this limitation we have developed a novel approximate probabilistic multiscale spatio-temporal meta model checking methodology for verifying multilevel computational models relative to specifications describing the desired/expected system behaviour. The methodology is generic and supports computational models encoded using various high-level modelling formalisms because it is defined relative to time series data and not the models used to generate it. In addition, the methodology can be automatically adapted to case study specific types of spatial structures and properties using the spatio-temporal meta model checking concept. To automate the computational model verification process we have implemented the model checking approach in the software tool Mule (http://mule.modelchecking.org). Its applicability is illustrated against four systems biology computational models previously published in the literature encoding the rat cardiovascular system dynamics, the uterine contractions of labour, the Xenopus laevis cell cycle and the acute inflammation of the gut and lung. Our methodology and software will enable computational biologists to efficiently develop reliable multilevel computational models of biological systems

Approximate policy iteration for Markov decision processes via quantitative adaptive aggregations

We consider the problem of finding an optimal policy in a Markov decision process that maximises the expected discounted sum of rewards over an infinite time horizon. Since the explicit iterative dynamical programming scheme does not scale when increasing the dimension of the state space, a number of approximate methods have been developed. These are typically based on value or policy iteration, enabling further speedups through lumped and distributed updates, or by employing succinct representations of the value functions. However, none of the existing approximate techniques provides general, explicit and tunable bounds on the approximation error, a problem particularly relevant when the level of accuracy affects the optimality of the policy. In this paper we propose a new approximate policy iteration scheme that mitigates the state-space explosion problem by adaptive state-space aggregation, at the same time providing rigorous and explicit error bounds that can be used to control the optimality level of the obtained policy. We evaluate the new approach on a case study, demonstrating evidence that the state-space reduction results in considerable acceleration of the policy iteration scheme, while being able to meet the required level of precision

Approximate policy iteration for Markov decision processes via quantitative adaptive aggregations

We consider the problem of finding an optimal policy in a Markov decision process that maximises the expected discounted sum of rewards over an infinite time horizon. Since the explicit iterative dynamical programming scheme does not scale when increasing the dimension of the state space, a number of approximate methods have been developed. These are typically based on value or policy iteration, enabling further speedups through lumped and distributed updates, or by employing succinct representations of the value functions. However, none of the existing approximate techniques provides general, explicit and tunable bounds on the approximation error, a problem particularly relevant when the level of accuracy affects the optimality of the policy. In this paper we propose a new approximate policy iteration scheme that mitigates the state-space explosion problem by adaptive state-space aggregation, at the same time providing rigorous and explicit error bounds that can be used to control the optimality level of the obtained policy. We evaluate the new approach on a case study, demonstrating evidence that the state-space reduction results in considerable acceleration of the policy iteration scheme, while being able to meet the required level of precision

Precise Parameter Synthesis for Stochastic Biochemical Systems

We consider the problem of synthesising rate parameters for stochastic biochemical networks so that a given time-bounded CSL property is guaranteed to hold, or, in the case of quantitative properties, the probability of satisfying the property is maximised/minimised. We develop algorithms based on the computation of lower and upper bounds of the probability, in conjunction with refinement and sampling, which yield answers that are precise to within an arbitrarily small tolerance value. Our methods are efficient and improve on existing approximate techniques that employ discretisation and refinement. We evaluate the usefulness of the methods by synthesising rates for two biologically motivated case studies, including the reliability analysis of a DNA walker