On the ignorance of group-level effects – The tragedy of personnel evaluation?

In social-dilemma situations (e.g., public-good games), people may pursue their local self- interests, thereby lowering the overall payoff of their group and, paradoxically, even their individual payoffs as a result. Likewise, in inner-individual dilemmas, even without conflict of interest between persons, people may pursue local goals at the expense of overall utility. Our experiments investigate such dissociations of individual and group-level effects in the context of personnel evaluation and selection. Participants were given the role of human resource managers selecting workers to optimize the overall payoff for the company. We investigated contexts where the individually best/worst ‘employees’ systematically caused the worst/best group performance. When workers in a team could substantially increase or decrease co-workers’ performance, most participants (albeit not all) tended to focus solely on individual performance without considering their overall contribution even when instructed to maximize group performance. This undue focus on individual information meant that employees who enhanced team performance the most often received the most negative evaluations. This may result in a ‘tragedy of personnel evaluation’ relevant to maladaptive incentive structures (personnel evaluation), job offers (personnel selection), and a substantially negative impact on organizational effectiveness. At the same time, the results suggest ways this problem may be overcome

Formal models of source reliability

The paper introduces, compares and contrasts formal models of source reliability proposed in the epistemology literature, in particular the prominent models of Bovens and Hartmann (2003) and Olsson (2011). All are Bayesian models seeking to provide normative guidance, yet they differ subtly in assumptions and resulting behavior. Models are evaluated both on conceptual grounds and through simulations, and the relationship between models is clarified. The simulations both show surprising similarities and highlight relevant differences between these models. Most importantly, however, our evaluations reveal that important normative concerns arguably remain unresolved. The philosophical implications of this for testimony are discussed

How good is your evidence and how would you know?

This paper examines the basic question of how we can come to form accurate beliefs about the world when we do not fully know how good or bad our evidence is. Here we show, using simulations with otherwise optimal agents, the cost of misjudging the quality of our evidence, and compare different strategies for correctly estimating that quality, such as outcome, and expectation-based updating. We identify conditions under which misjudgment of evidence quality can nevertheless lead to accurate beliefs, as well as those conditions where no strategy will help. These results indicate both where people will nevertheless succeed and where they will fail when information quality is degraded

Knowledge through social networks: accuracy, error, and polarisation

This paper examines the fundamental problem of testimony. Much of what we believe to know we know in good part, or even entirely, through the testimony of others. The problem with testimony is that we often have very little on which to base estimates of the accuracy of our sources. Simulations with otherwise optimal agents examine the impact of this for the accuracy of our beliefs about the world. It is demonstrated both where social networks of information dissemination help and where they hinder. Most importantly, it is shown that both social networks and a common strategy for gauging the accuracy of our sources give rise to polarisation even for entirely accuracy motivated agents. Crucially these two factors interact, amplifying one another’s negative consequences, and this side effect of communication in a social network increases with network size. This suggests a new causal mechanism by which social media may have fostered the increase in polarisation currently observed in many parts of the world

ToF-SIMS mediated analysis of human lung tissue reveals increased iron deposition in COPD (GOLD IV) patients

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a debilitating lung disease that is currently the third leading cause of death worldwide. Recent reports have indicated that dysfunctional iron handling in the lungs of COPD patients may be one contributing factor. However, a number of these studies have been limited to the qualitative assessment of iron levels through histochemical staining or to the expression levels of iron-carrier proteins in cells or bronchoalveolar lavage fluid. In this study, we have used time of flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to visualize and relatively quantify iron accumulation in lung tissue sections of healthy donors versus severe COPD patients. An IONTOF 5 instrument was used to perform the analysis, and further multivariate analysis was used to analyze the data. An orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) score plot revealed good separation between the two groups. This separation was primarily attributed to differences in iron content, as well as differences in other chemical signals possibly associated with lipid species. Further, relative quantitative analysis revealed twelve times higher iron levels in lung tissue sections of COPD patients when compared to healthy donors. In addition, iron accumulation observed within the cells was heterogeneously distributed, indicating cellular compartmentalization

Chemosensory abilities in consumers of a western-style diet

People vary in their habitual diet and also in their chemosensory abilities. In this study we examined whether consumption of a Western-style diet, rich in saturated fat and added sugar, is associated with either poorer or different patterns of chemosensory perception, relative to people who consume a healthier diet. Participants were selected based on a food frequency questionnaire, which established whether they were likely to consume a diet either higher or lower in saturated fat and added sugar. Eighty-seven participants were tested for olfactory ability (threshold, discrimination, identification), gustatory ability (PROP sensitivity, taste intensity, quality and hedonics), and flavour processing (using dairy fat-sugar-odour mixtures). A Western-style diet was associated with poorer odour identification ability, greater PROP sensitivity, poorer fat discrimination, different patterns of sweetness taste enhancement, and hedonic differences in taste and flavour perception. No differences were evident for odour discrimination or threshold, in perception of taste intensity/quality (excluding PROP) or the ability of fats to affect flavour perception. The significant relationships were of small to moderate effect size, and would be expected to work against consuming a healthier diet. The discussion focuses on whether these diet-related differences precede adoption of a Western-style diet and/or are a consequence of it

Generalized stacking fault energy surfaces and dislocation properties of aluminum

We have employed the semidiscrete variational generalized Peierls-Nabarro model to study the dislocation core properties of aluminum. The generalized stacking fault energy surfaces entering the model are calculated by using first-principles Density Functional Theory (DFT) with pseudopotentials and the embedded atom method (EAM). Various core properties, including the core width, splitting behavior, energetics and Peierls stress for different dislocations have been investigated. The correlation between the core energetics and dislocation character has been explored. Our results reveal a simple relationship between the Peierls stress and the ratio between the core width and atomic spacing. The dependence of the core properties on the two methods for calculating the total energy (DFT vs. EAM) has been examined. The EAM can give gross trends for various dislocation properties but fails to predict the finer core structures, which in turn can affect the Peierls stress significantly (about one order of magnitude).Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

BENCHOP–SLV: the BENCHmarking project in Option Pricing–Stochastic and Local Volatility problems

In the recent project BENCHOP–the BENCHmarking project in Option Pricing we found that Stochastic and Local Volatility problems were particularly challenging. Here we continue the effort by introducing a set of benchmark problems for this type of problems. Eight different methods targeted for the Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) formulation and the Partial Differential Equation (PDE) formulation of the problem, as well as Fourier methods making use of the characteristic function, were implemented to solve these problems. Comparisons are made with respect to time to reach a certain error level in the computed solution for the different methods. The implemented Fourier method was superior to all others for the two problems where it was implemented. Generally, methods targeting the PDE formulation of the problem outperformed the methods for the SDE formulation. Among the methods for the PDE formulation the ADI method stood out as the best performing one

Host-plant acceptance on mineral soil and humus by the pine weevil Hylobius abietis (L.)

1 The pine weevil Hylobius abietis (L.) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae) is an economically important pest of conifer forest regeneration in Europe and Asia. 2 Soil scarification, which usually exposes mineral soil, is widely used to protect seedlings from weevil attack. However, the mechanism behind this protective effect is not yet fully understood. 3 Field experiments were conducted to determine the pine weevil's responses to visual and odour stimuli from seedlings when moving on mineral soil and on undisturbed humus surface. 4 One experiment measured the number of pine weevils approaching seedlings, with and without added host odour, on mineral soil and undisturbed humus. Seedlings with added host odour attracted more weevils on both soil types. Unexpectedly, somewhat more weevils approached seedlings surrounded by mineral soil. 5 In a similar experiment, feeding attacks on seedlings planted directly in the soil were recorded. Only half as many seedlings were attacked on mineral soil as on undisturbed humus. 6 In the first experiment, the weevils were trapped 2.5 cm from the bases of the seedlings' stems, whereas they could reach the seedlings in the experiment where seedlings were planted directly in the soil. We conclude that the pine weevils' decision on whether or not to feed on a seedling is strongly influenced by the surrounding soil type and that this decision is taken in the close vicinity of the seedling. The presence of pure mineral soil around the seedling strongly reduces the likelihood that an approaching pine weevil will feed on it

Dynamically coupling full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation for marine ice sheet flow using Elmer/Ice (v8.3)

Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve due to the nonlinearity introduced by the rheology. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are commonly used, especially when modeling a marine ice sheet (ice sheet, ice shelf, and/or ice stream) for 103 years or longer. The shallow ice approximation (SIA) and shallow shelf approximation (SSA) are commonly used but are accurate only for certain parts of an ice sheet. Here, we report a novel way of iteratively coupling FS and SSA that has been implemented in Elmer/Ice and applied to conceptual marine ice sheets. The FS–SSA coupling appears to be very accurate; the relative error in velocity compared to FS is below 0.5&thinsp;% for diagnostic runs and below 5&thinsp;% for prognostic runs. Results for grounding line dynamics obtained with the FS–SSA coupling are similar to those obtained from an FS model in an experiment with a periodical temperature forcing over 3000 years that induces grounding line advance and retreat. The rapid convergence of the FS–SSA coupling shows a large potential for reducing computation time, such that modeling a marine ice sheet for thousands of years should become feasible in the near future. Despite inefficient matrix assembly in the current implementation, computation time is reduced by 32&thinsp;%, when the coupling is applied to a 3-D ice shelf.</p