The McKenna rule and U.K. World War I finance

The United Kingdom employed the McKenna rule to conduct fiscal policy during World War I (WWI) and the interwar period. Named for Reginald McKenna, Chancellor of the Exchequer (1915–16), the McKenna rule committed the United Kingdom to a path of debt retirement, which we show was forward-looking and smoothed in response to shocks to the real economy and tax rates. The McKenna rule was in the tradition of the “English method” of war finance because the United Kingdom taxed capital to finance WWI. Higher rates of capital taxation also paid for debt retirement during and subsequent to WWI. The United Kingdom was motivated to implement the McKenna rule because of a desire to achieve a balance between fairness and equity. However, the McKenna rule adversely affected the real economy, according to a permanent income model. WWI and interwar U.K. data support the prediction that real activity is lower in response to higher past debt retirement rates.

UK World War I and interwar data for business cycle and growth analysis

This article contributes new time series for studying the UK economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average capital income, labor income, and consumption tax rates. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an annual sample that runs from 1913 to 1938. The authors highlight the usefulness of these time series with several empirical applications. The per capita hours worked data are used in a growth accounting exercise to measure the contributions of capital, labor, and productivity to output growth. The average tax rates are employed in a Bayesian model averaging experiment to reevaluate the Benjamin and Kochin (1979) regression.Business cycles ; Economic development ; Real-time data

U.K. World War I and interwar data for business cycle and growth analysis

This article contributes new time series for studying the U.K. economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average tax rates of capital income, labor income, and consumption. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an annual sample that runs from 1913 to 1938. We highlight the usefulness of these time series with several empirical applications. We use per capita hours worked in a growth accounting exercise to measure the contributions of capital, labor, and productivity to output growth. The average tax rates are employed in a Bayesian model averaging experiment to reevaluate the Benjamin and Kochin (1979) regression.

"Keep it real!": A real-time UK macro data set

We present a real-time macro data set for the UK. Each variable has many different vintages - reflecting the revisions and s that occur over time. Our aim is to provide a resource for researchers evaluating UK forecasting performance and policy-making in real time. We illustrate the importance of these data by analysing their impacts on UK inflation forecasts and monetary policy in the late 1980s. We find that, contrary to the view of contemporary policy-makers, the initial measurements of demand-side macro variables did not disguise inflationary pressures.

Feasibility investigation of integrated optics Fourier transform devices

The possibility of producing an integrated optics data processing device based upon Fourier transformations or other parallel processing techniques, and the ways in which such techniques may be used to upgrade the performance of present and projected NASA systems were investigated. Activities toward this goal include; (1) production of near-diffraction-limited geodesic lenses in glass waveguides; (2) development of grinding and polishing techniques for the production of geodesic lenses in LiNbO3 waveguides; (3) development of a characterization technique for waveguide lenses; and (4) development of a theory for corrected aspheric geodesic lenses. A holographic subtraction system was devised which should be capable of rapid on-board preprocessing of a large number of parallel data channels. The principle involved is validated in three demonstrations

An investigation for the development of an integrated optical data preprocessor

The successful fabrication and demonstration of an integrated optical circuit designed to perform a parallel processing operation by utilizing holographic subtraction to simultaneously compare N analog signal voltages with N predetermined reference voltages is summarized. The device alleviates transmission, storage and processing loads of satellite data systems by performing, at the sensor site, some preprocessing of data taken by remote sensors. Major accomplishments in the fabrication of integrated optics components include: (1) fabrication of the first LiNbO3 waveguide geodesic lens; (2) development of techniques for polishing TIR mirrors on LiNbO3 waveguides; (3) fabrication of high efficiency metal-over-photoresist gratings for waveguide beam splitters; (4) demonstration of high S/N holographic subtraction using waveguide holograms; and (5) development of alignment techniques for fabrication of integrated optics circuits. Important developments made in integrated optics are the discovery and suggested use of holographic self-subtraction in LiNbO3, development of a mathematical description of the operating modes of the preprocessor, and the development of theories for diffraction efficiency and beam quality of two dimensional beam defined gratings

Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Final design proposal: Delta Group-Nood Rider 821(tm)

The Nood Rider 821 (trademark) twin-engine, prop passenger aircraft is described. It is argued that the aircraft is very economical to operate and maintain, offering competitive advantages in the air travel marketplace. The aircraft was designed to operate in 'Aeroworld', a fictional world where the passengers are ping pong balls and the distances between cites are on the order of thousands of feet