Belief in Conspiracy Theories and Susceptibility to the Conjunction Fallacy

People who believe in the paranormal have been found to be particularly susceptible to the conjunction fallacy. The present research examines whether the same is true of people who endorse conspiracy theories. Two studies examined the association between conspiracist ideation and the number of conjunction violations made in a variety of contexts (neutral, paranormal and conspiracy). Study 1 found that participants who endorsed a range of popular conspiracy theories more strongly also made more conjunction errors than participants with weaker conspiracism, regardless of the contextual framing of the conjunction. Study 2, using an independent sample and a generic measure of conspiracist ideation, replicated the finding that conspiracy belief is associated with domain-general susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy. The findings are discussed in relation to the association between conspiracism and other anomalous beliefs, the representativeness heuristic and the tendency to infer underlying causal relationships connecting ostensibly unrelated events

Talking to the dead in the classroom. How a supposedly psychic event impacts beliefs and feelings

Paranormal beliefs (PBs) are common in adults. There are numerous psychological correlates of PBs and associated theories, yet, we do not know whether such correlates reinforce or result from PBs. To understand causality, we developed an experimental design in which participants experience supposedly paranormal events. Thus, we can test an event’s impact on PBs and PB-associated correlates (Mohr, Lesaffre, & Kuhn, 2018). Here, 419 naïve students saw a performer making contact with a confederate’s deceased kin. We tested participants’ opinions and feelings about this performance, and whether these predicted how participants explain the performance. We assessed participants’ PBs and repetition avoidance (PB related cognitive correlate) before and after the performance. Afterwards, participants rated explanations of the event and described their opinions and feelings (open-ended question). Overall, 65% of participants reported having witnessed a genuine paranormal event. The open-ended question revealed distinct opinion and affect groups, with reactions commonly characterized by doubt and mixed feelings. Importantly, paranormal explanations were more likely when participants reported their feelings than when not reported. Beyond these results, we replicated that 1) higher pre-existing PBs were associated with more psychic explanations (confirmation bias), and 2) PBs and repetition avoidance did not change from before to after the performance. Yet, PBs reminiscent of the actual performance (spiritualism) increased

Perceived Stress, Thinking Style and Paranormal Belief

Paranormal beliefs often become stronger in times of stress. Such beliefs have also been found to vary in accordance with thinking style, whereby stronger beliefs are often observed in experiential thinkers. Little research, however, has explored the interaction between perceived stress and thinking style. 82 males and females aged 18 to 62 years (mean = 29.96 ± 12.53 years) completed measures of perceived stress, thinking style (rational and experiential) and paranormal belief. The results revealed stronger beliefs in experiential thinkers, compared with those with a rational thinking style. Perceived stress alone, was not a prominent predictor of belief but the combination of stress and thinking style, specifically high perceived stress with a rational thinking style, significantly predicted greater global paranormal belief, belief in superstition, traditional religious belief, and belief in psi. High perceived stress appeared to facilitate belief in rational thinkers as conversely, belief was lowest in rational thinkers under conditions of low-perceived stress. These findings suggest that stress may lower the propensity for rational thinking and consequently, encourage belief in scientifically unsubstantiated phenomena. This interaction may have implications for coping during stressful situations

The Moderating Effect of Mental Toughness: Perception of Risk and Belief in the Paranormal

This research demonstrates that higher levels of mental toughness provide cognitive-perceptual processing advantages when evaluating risk. No previous research, however, has examined mental toughness in relation to perception of risk and paranormal belief (a variable associated with distorted perception of causality and elevated levels of perceived risk). Accordingly, the present paper investigated relationships between these factors. A sample of 174 participants completed self-report measures assessing mental toughness, general perception of risk, and paranormal belief. Responses were analyzed via correlations and moderation analyses. Results revealed that mental toughness correlated negatively with perception of risk and paranormal belief, whereas paranormal belief correlated positively with perception of risk. For the moderation effects, simple slopes analyses indicated that high levels of MT and subfactors of commitment and confidence reduced the strength of association between paranormal belief and perceived risk. Therefore, MT potentially acts as a protective factor among individuals who believe in the paranormal, reducing the tendency to perceive elevated levels of risk

Some experiments on the paranormal cognition of drawings With reference to personality and attitudinal variables

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Evidence for transliminality from a subliminal card-guessing task

In this experiment we sought to provide evidence for transliminality from a test of subliminal perception that was disguised as a computerised ESP card-guessing task. It was predicted that highly transliminal individuals would outperform those with low levels of transliminality when given subliminal primes or 'clues' to the correct choice of card, but not when no primes were given. In line with the prediction, higher levels of transliminality were found to be associated with a greater number of correct selections of the target card on the primed trials, but not on the unprimed trials. In addition, a positive correlation was obtained between transliminality and detection accuracy, suggesting that higher levels of transliminality are associated with a greater sensitivity to visual stimulation. The results are discussed with reference to the possibility that transliminality might offer an alternative explanation for some ostensibly psychic perceptual experiences if subliminally acquired material is wrongly attributed to psychic sources

Research note: Demonstrating the concurrent validity of two coincidence measures

Given the hypothesized relationship between paranormal belief and attribution of psychic causes to coincidences, two coincidence measures (each with five items about coincidences) are tested for their concurrent validity against Thalbourne’s (1995) Australian Sheep-Goat Scale (ASGS). The two measures significantly predict ASGS scores, and for both measures, sheep tended to give higher ratings to the coincidences than did goats. It is concluded that coincidence measures do not necessarily serve the same function as paranormal belief/experience scales, but they may be serviceable substitutes or aids in specific research situations.Lance Storm and Michael A. Thalbourn