Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends

Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing extreme event probability. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of mid-atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) cluster analysis, we detect robust pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979–2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea ice decline (1990–2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer/autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence, and/or maximum duration of regional circulation patterns

Summers with low Arctic sea ice linked to persistence of spring atmospheric circulation patterns

The declining trend of Arctic September sea ice constitutes a significant change in the Arctic climate system. Large year-to-year variations are superimposed on this sea–ice trend, with the largest variability observed in the eastern Arctic Ocean. Knowledge of the processes important for this variability may lead to an improved understanding of seasonal and long-term changes. Previous studies suggest that transport of heat and moisture into the Arctic during spring enhances downward surface longwave radiation, thereby controlling the annual melt onset, setting the stage for the September ice minimum. In agreement with these studies, we find that years with a low September sea–ice concentration (SIC) are characterized by more persistent periods in spring with enhanced energy flux to the surface in forms of net longwave radiation plus turbulent fluxes, compared to years with a high SIC. Two main atmospheric circulation patterns related to these episodes are identified: one resembles the so-called Arctic dipole anomaly that promotes transport of heat and moisture from the North Pacific, whereas the other is characterized by negative geopotential height anomalies over the Arctic, favoring cyclonic flow from Siberia and the Kara Sea into the eastern Arctic Ocean. However, differences between years with low and high September SIC appear not to be due to different spring circulation patterns; instead it is the persistence and intensity of processes associated with these patterns that distinguish the two groups of anomalous years: Years with low September SIC feature episodes that are consistently stronger and more persistent than years with high SIC. © 2018 The Author(s