External Factors of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict in the Context of the Second Karabakh War

Aim. To identify the features of the behavior of external actors in the South Caucasus during the Second Karabakh War and rank them according to the degree of influence on the events, outcomes, and settlement of the post-conflict situation.Tasks. To find out the main reasons for Armenia’s military defeat, as well as the extent of involvement in the armed conflict and post-conflict settlement of Turkey, Great Britain, Iran, the USA, France, the OSCE Minsk Group and the EU.Methods. Among the techniques and ways to achieve the stated goal of the study, the methods of comparative analysis, which allowed by comparing the degree of involvement and role in the conflict to identify beneficiaries and the most promising applicants for participation in post-conflict settlement; structural and functional analysis aimed at identifying connections, relationships and mediations between the participants of the events under consideration.Results. The analysis of the interested and motivated behavior of Turkey, Iran, the UK, the USA, France, the Minsk Group, and the EU in the 44-day armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan was carried out. An attempt is made to rank external actors according to the degree of influence on the course and outcome of the war; the main reasons for Armenia’s military defeat are established; Iran’s behavior and role in the conditions of war and post-conflict settlement are characterized; Azerbaijan’s support in the conflict by the countries of the Turkic Council is shown; the involvement of Turkey and Great Britain in the war is established; The role of Russia in the end of the war was determined; the positions of the USA and France as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group were clarified; the EU’s application for mediation in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani contradictions was assessed.Conclusions. Contrary to numerous opinions about the paralysis of Russia’s political will in the South Caucasus, it was Russia that, following the results of the Second Karabakh War, managed to strengthen its position and role in regional politics, unite its allies — Armenia and Azerbaijan — around it, inspire them with an understanding of the need to end armed confrontation in the conflict zone, and propose a realistic program of joint actions towards its political settlement

The US-China Trade War in the Context of Deglobalization and the Reideologization of International Relations (Part 2)

Continuation of the article. Devoted to the causes, manifestations, circumstances, results and global consequences of US-China trade war in 2018–2021. Based on the analysis of management decisions, expert assessments, statistics and opinion polls, the author makes judgments and assumptions about the continuity of US policy, provoking and aggravating conflict relations between the two countries, as well as contributing to their penetration into all spheres of politics, economy, culture and even sports. At the same time, consistent and adequate measures on the part of the People’s Republic of China, which have a predominantly defensive orientation, are taken into account. At the same time, the anti-Chinese trade, investment, and technology policy, which was already carried out under Donald Trump in the name of ensuring the national security of the United States, and under Joe Biden actually turned into a hybrid cold war, is interpreted in the context of causal relationships characterizing the crisis of the neoliberal model of capitalism and the intentions of the world elite to restart the Bretton Woods system by switching to “green” energy. The most important resource of the transformation that has begun is the ideology of justifying any sanctions and other strong-willed decisions of the “democratic” Western states led by the United States against the “authoritarian” losers of the energy transition. Consequently, the “trade war” of the USA and China, objectively acting as an instrument of disorganization of the global world and a powerful limiter of globalization based on “market fundamentalism”, becomes the demiurge of the new globalization projected on the platform of “ideological fundamentalism”. In the situation of a multipolar world and the intensified rivalry of nuclear powers, restarting the world economy through a global war seems impossible. On the contrary, the mechanism of collecting a “green” contribution in favor of potential beneficiaries of the new globalization has not yet been tested. Within this perspective, the US-China trade war becomes not only an existential concern of the US and its allies, but also a problem of China’s survival. Obviously, this circumstance explains the emerging rapprochement between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the direction of pooling resources and forming a military-political alliance

The Influence of Pan-Turkism on the Political Identity Formation of the Turkic States of Central Asia in the XXI Century (Part 2)

The negative tone of statements about pan-Turkism and Turkey’s policy in the post-Soviet space in the Central Asian region prevails in the Russian media. Indeed, pan-Turkism is a strong factor in the emerging statehood of the newly independent states of the region. At the same time, and it is important to emphasize this, it is not the only and far from defining one. His influence manifested itself mainly in the first half of the 1990s. All the authors note the role of Turkey at the initial stage of the sovereignty of the countries of this region. Then, first, due to lack of resources, its influence in Central Asia began to wane. New players appeared in the region, representing the interests of Western countries and China. Russian economic, military, and political influence also became more stable and weightier. Turkey’s attempts in the XXI century to achieve new successes in promoting its interests based on the values of Turkism did not lead to the expected results. Economic and military-political competitors continued to outpace it, and their successes encouraged Ankara to make measurements during its policy. She became more and more realistic and pragmatic. For a few reasons, during the first decade of the new century, the Turkish upper classes somewhat cooled down to pan-Turkism. At the same time, the elites of the Central Asian countries got a taste of state nationalism and, cultivating their own values, emphasized their sovereignty and the right to a multi-vector foreign policy. Overcoming their dependence on Moscow, they also demonstrated their unwillingness to follow in the wake of Ankara’s interests. In the conditions оf De-globalization and fragmentation that began after the global crisis of 2008–2009 pan-Turkism is once again becoming an important factor in the sovereign positioning of the Turkic-speaking republics of Central Asia. At the same time, it has ceased to act as an instrument of Turkish expansion and today represents a new phenomenon — “collective pan-Turkism”, which testifies to the common interest and solidarity aspirations of its participants. Russia, China and other non-regional actors will have to reckon with this circumstance in the future

The US-China Trade War in the Context of Deglobalization and the Re-ideologization of International Relations (Part 1)

This paper is devoted to the causes, manifestations, circumstances, results and global consequences of US-China trade war in 2018–2021. Based on the analysis of management decisions, expert assessments, statistics and opinion polls, the author makes judgments and assumptions about the continuity of US policy, provoking and aggravating conflict relations between the two countries, as well as contributing to their penetration into all spheres of politics, economy, culture and even sports. At the same time, consistent and adequate measures on the part of the People’s Republic of China, which have a predominantly defensive orientation, are taken into account. At the same time, the anti-Chinese trade, investment, and technology policy, which was already carried out under Donald Trump in the name of ensuring the national security of the United States, and under Joe Biden actually turned into a hybrid cold war, is interpreted in the context of causal relationships characterizing the crisis of the neoliberal model of capitalism and the intentions of the world elite to restart the Bretton Woods system by switching to “green” energy. The most important resource of the transformation that has begun is the ideology of justifying any sanctions and other strong-willed decisions of the “democratic” Western states led by the United States against the “authoritarian” losers of the energy transition. Consequently, the “trade war” of the USA and China, objectively acting as an instrument of disorganization of the global world and a powerful limiter of globalization based on “market fundamentalism”, becomes the demiurge of the new globalization projected on the platform of “ideological fundamentalism”. In the situation of a multipolar world and the intensified rivalry of nuclear powers, restarting the world economy through a global war seems impossible. On the contrary, the mechanism of collecting a “green” contribution in favor of potential beneficiaries of the new globalization has not yet been tested. Within this perspective, the US-China trade war becomes not only an existential concern of the US and its allies, but also a problem of China’s survival. Obviously, this circumstance explains the emerging rapprochement between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the direction of pooling resources and forming a military-political alliance

The Turkish Factor in Relations between Russia and Kazakhstan in the Context of Eurasian Integration

Today, the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) have to respond to a set of challenges and threats that hinder the progressive development of regional integration. Among them are the problems of relations between the member countries themselves, who found themselves in a difficult situation in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. This does not detract from the huge potential of Eurasian integration and the possibility of expanding the range of interested participants in this project. For this reason, Russia and Kazakhstan are obliged to fully protect the constructive, allied, fraternal relations that have developed between them, especially since the success of Eurasian integration as a whole largely depends on this. The combination of objective factors and circumstances, including the spread of Turkey’s influence in Central Asia, puts RussianKazakh relations to certain tests. The Great Turan project, implemented by Turkey and its Turkicspeaking partners, carries certain risks for Russia. The purpose of this study is to clarify the circumstances related to this. At the same time, the author focuses on the development of Russian-Kazakh economic relations in the context of the implementation of the Eurasian integration project. It exposes the myth that the EEU is a politicized institution inspired by the “imperial elites” of Russia. Revealing and analyzing the existing conflict of interests, certain differences in the understanding of the tactical tasks of national development, the author shows that the conflict potential in relations between Russia and Kazakhstan is reliably stopped both by the leaders of the states and by the high level of good-neighborliness and popular will and has no prospects of aggravation. At the same time, the conclusion is justified that no problematic issues of Russian-Kazakh relations can devalue the positive prospects for Eurasian integration. The author also seeks to substantiate the thesis about the inability of the Turkish factor to cause damage to Russian-Kazakh relations and the Eurasian project as a whole. Moreover, the author tries to bring an objective platform under the statement about the compatibility and the possibility of interfacing the Eurasian and all-Turkic integration projects

The Influence of Pan-Turkism on the Political Identity Formation of the Turkic States of Central Asia in the XXI Century (Part 1)

The negative tone of statements about pan-Turkism and Turkey’s policy in the post-Soviet space in the Central Asian region prevails in the Russian media. Indeed, pan-Turkism is a strong factor in the emerging statehood of the newly independent states of the region. At the same time, and it is important to emphasize this, it is not the only and far from defining one. His influence manifested itself mainly in the first half of the 1990s. All the authors note the role of Turkey at the initial stage of the sovereignty of the countries of this region. Then, first, due to lack of resources, its influence in Central Asia began to wane. New players appeared in the region, representing the interests of Western countries and China. Russian economic, military, and political influence also became more stable and weightier. Turkey’s attempts in the XXI century to achieve new successes in promoting its interests based on the values of Turkism did not lead to the expected results. Economic and military-political competitors continued to outpace it, and their successes encouraged Ankara to make measurements during its policy. She became more and more realistic and pragmatic. For a few reasons, during the first decade of the new century, the Turkish upper classes somewhat cooled down to pan-Turkism. At the same time, the elites of the Central Asian countries got a taste of state nationalism and, cultivating their own values, emphasized their sovereignty and the right to a multi-vector foreign policy. Overcoming their dependence on Moscow, they also demonstrated their unwillingness to follow in the wake of Ankara’s interests. In the conditions оf De-globalization and fragmentation that began after the global crisis of 2008–2009 pan-Turkism is once again becoming an important factor in the sovereign positioning of the Turkic-speaking republics of Central Asia. At the same time, it has ceased to act as an instrument of Turkish expansion and today represents a new phenomenon — “collective pan-Turkism”, which testifies to the common interest and solidarity aspirations of its participants. Russia, China and other non-regional actors will have to reckon with this circumstance in the future

Transnational Organized Crime and its Perspectives in Conditions of Global Instability

The article examines transnational organized crime, the ways of it’s classification, its types and subjects. The characteristic of directions, where crime groups have their activities. Also there is a complex of reasons of development of international crime, the solving of which could increase the level of the global security

New compartment model analysis of lean-mass and fat-mass growth with overfeeding

Objectives: Mathematical models of lean- and fat-mass growth with diet are useful to help describe and potentially predict the fat- and lean-mass change with different diets as a function of consumed protein and fat calories. Most of the existing models do not explicitly account for interdependence of fat-mass on the lean-mass and vice versa. The aim of this study was to develop a new compartmental model to describe the growth of lean and fat mass depending on the input of dietary protein and fat, and accounting for the interdependence of adipose tissue and muscle growth. Methods: The model was fitted to existing clinical data of an overfeeding trial for 23 participants (with a high-protein diet, a normal-protein diet, and a low-protein diet) and compared with the existing Forbes model. Results: Qualitatively and quantitatively, the compartment model data fit was smoother with less overall error than the Forbes model. The root means square error were 0.39, 0.93 and 0.72 kg for the new model, the Forbes model, and the modified Forbes model, respectively. Additionally, for the present model, the differences between some of the coefficients (on the cross dependence of fat and lean mass as well as on the intake diet dependence) across different diets were statistically significant (P \u3c 0.05). Conclusions: Our new Dey-model showed excellent fit to overfeeding data for 23 normal participants with some significant differences of model coefficients across diets, enabling further studies of the model coefficients for larger groups of participants with obesity or other diseases

Institutionalization of Counter-Terrorism Cooperation in the Eurasian Area: Current Issues and Prospects

The objective is to define the main parameters and current state of the institutionalization of international anti-terrorist activities in the Eurasian area. At the same time, the authors focus is on the institutional and legal aspects of institutionalizing the fight against terrorism in formats of CIS, CSTO, SCO. Also, the article defines and characterizes the problematic field of the stable system formation for interaction between different anti-terrorist structures in the Eurasian space in the context of existing institutionalization models of anti-terrorist cooperation (UN, NATO, EU, etc.). Authors justified the assumptions about the institutionalization and possible prospects of the Eurasian anti-terrorist initiative and the role of Russia in its implementation

Foreign Policy Strategy of the Fifth Republic: a Timid Turn towards Greater Eurasia

The article clarifies the prerequisites and circumstances ofFrancemovement in the direction of selfidentification as a Western economy. Based on an analysis of the foreign policy’s views and practical efforts of theFifthRepublic’s Presidents, the authors note the country's transition from opposing the expansion of partnership withGreat Britainand military cooperation with theUnited Stateswithin the North Atlantic Treaty’s framework to overcoming deep disagreements with NATO to restore membership in its military organization. The “Westernization” ofFrance’s security and defense policies is also explained by its move from national autonomy to understanding the importance of ensuring the country's sovereignty through active participation in European integration. Describing the “proWestern“ course ofFranceat the present stage, the authors pay attention to President E. Macron's skepticism concerning Euro-Atlantic solidarity and the deterioration of the conditions for transatlantic cooperation with theUnited States. According to the authors’ opinion, the current foreign policy strategy ofFranceis distinguished by Eurocentrism, as well as its desire for a strategic partnership with theRussian Federation