Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms

Identifying priority areas for ecosystem service management in South African grasslands

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services required to support human well-being and are home to a diverse fauna and flora. Degradation of grasslands due to agriculture and other forms of land use threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Various efforts are underway around the world to stem these declines. The Grassland Programme in South Africa is one such initiative and is aimed at safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this developing programme, we identified spatial priority areas for ecosystem services, tested the effect of different target levels of ecosystem services used to identify priority areas, and evaluated whether biodiversity priority areas can be aligned with those for ecosystem services. We mapped five ecosystem services (below ground carbon storage, surface water supply, water flow regulation, soil accumulation and soil retention) and identified priority areas for individual ecosystem services and for all five services at the scale of quaternary catchments. Planning for individual ecosystem services showed that, depending on the ecosystem service of interest, between 4% and 13% of the grassland biome was required to conserve at least 40% of the soil and water services. Thirty-four percent of the biome was needed to conserve 40% of the carbon service in the grassland. Priority areas identified for five ecosystem services under three target levels (20%, 40%, 60% of the total amount) showed that between 17% and 56% of the grassland biome was needed to conserve these ecosystem services. There was moderate to high overlap between priority areas selected for ecosystem services and already-identified terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity priority areas. This level of overlap coupled with low irreplaceability values obtained when planning for individual ecosystem services makes it possible to combine biodiversity and ecosystem services in one plan using systematic conservation planning.Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biolog

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year

Do ecosystem service maps and models meet stakeholders’ needs? A preliminary survey across sub-Saharan Africa

To achieve sustainability goals, it is important to incorporate ecosystem service (ES) information into decision-making processes. However, little is known about the correspondence between the needs of ES information users and the data provided by the researcher community. We surveyed stakeholders within sub-Saharan Africa, determining their ES data requirements using a targeted sampling strategy. Of those respondents utilising ES information (>90%; n=60), 27% report having sufficient data; with the remainder requiring additional data – particularly at higher spatial resolutions and at multiple points in time. The majority of respondents focus on provisioning and regulating services, particularly food and fresh water supply (both 58%) and climate regulation (49%). Their focus is generally at national scales or below and in accordance with data availability. Among the stakeholders surveyed, we performed a follow-up assessment for a sub-sample of 17 technical experts. The technical experts are unanimous that ES models must be able to incorporate scenarios, and most agree that ES models should be at least 90% accurate. However, relatively coarse-resolution (1–10 km2) models are sufficient for many services. To maximise the impact of future research, dynamic, multi-scale datasets on ES must be delivered alongside capacity-building efforts

A comparative analysis of components incorporated in conservation priority assessments: a case study based on South African species of terrestrial mammals.

Assessing the risk of extinction to species forms an essential part of regional conservation initiatives that facilitate the allocation of limited resources for conservation. The present study conducted conservation priority assessments for 221 South African terrestrial mammal species using existing data sources. These data sources included regional IUCN Red List assessments, regional geographic distributions, relative endemism, taxonomic distinctiveness, relative body mass and human density. These components were in turn subjected to two quantitative conservation priority assessment techniques in an attempt to determine regional conservation priorities for South African terrestrial mammals. The top 22 mammal species (i.e. the top 10% of assessed species) identified by both regional conservation priority assessment techniques to be of conservation priority, consistently identified 13 South African terrestrial mammal species to be of high conservation priority. Seven of the 13 species were from the order Afrosoticida, two species from the order Eulipotyphla, with one species each from the orders Chiroptera, Lagomorpha, Pholidota, and Rodentia. More importantly, 12 of the 13 mammal species were also listed as threatened in the 2004 Red Data Book of South African Mammals. These results suggest that the two conservation priority assessment techniques used in the present study may represent a practical and quantitative method for determining regional conservation priorities, and include measures that represent vulnerability, conservation value, and threat.DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biolog

A comparative analysis of components incorporated in conservation priority assessments: a case study based on South African species of terrestrial mammals.

Assessing the risk of extinction to species forms an essential part of regional conservation initiatives that facilitate the allocation of limited resources for conservation. The present study conducted conservation priority assessments for 221 South African terrestrial mammal species using existing data sources. These data sources included regional IUCN Red List assessments, regional geographic distributions, relative endemism, taxonomic distinctiveness, relative body mass and human density. These components were in turn subjected to two quantitative conservation priority assessment techniques in an attempt to determine regional conservation priorities for South African terrestrial mammals. The top 22 mammal species (i.e. the top 10% of assessed species) identified by both regional conservation priority assessment techniques to be of conservation priority, consistently identified 13 South African terrestrial mammal species to be of high conservation priority. Seven of the 13 species were from the order Afrosoticida, two species from the order Eulipotyphla, with one species each from the orders Chiroptera, Lagomorpha, Pholidota, and Rodentia. More importantly, 12 of the 13 mammal species were also listed as threatened in the 2004 Red Data Book of South African Mammals. These results suggest that the two conservation priority assessment techniques used in the present study may represent a practical and quantitative method for determining regional conservation priorities, and include measures that represent vulnerability, conservation value, and threat.DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biolog

Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty

Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0 6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation. © 2020 The Author

Some physiopathological features of experimental Homeria glauca (Wood & Evans) N. E. Br. poisoning in Merino sheep

Five Merino sheep were dosed 3 g/kg of dry, finely-milled Homeria glauca (Natal yellow tulp) plant material. An electrocardiogram was recorded and the arterial and central venous blood pressure, blood gases, haematological variables, plasma electrolytes (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, PO₄²⁻) and a variety of serum enzymes and chemical constituents were measured hourly until death (3 sheep) or until sheep were in extremis (2 sheep). Heart rate rose progressively as a result of sinus and, later, ventricular tachycardia. Systolic blood pressure rose, but there was little change in the mean and diastolic arterial pressures and central venous pressure. There was progressive hypoxaemia, hypercarbia and acidaemia with depletion of plasma bicarbonate. Haemoconcentration, hyperkalaemia and hypochloraemia were found along with rising serum creatinine and plasma glucose. Rises in serum enzymes indicated widespread tissue damage. Electrocardiographic recordings were being made at the moment of death in 3 of the 5 sheep. In these 3 sheep the cause of death was ventricular fibrillation.The articles have been scanned in colour with a HP Scanjet 5590; 600dpi. Adobe Acrobat XI Pro was used to OCR the text and also for the merging and conversion to the final presentation PDF-format.Department of Agriculture, RSA