Mitigation of the LHC Inverse Problem

The LHC inverse problem refers to the difficulties in determining the parameters of an underlying theory from data (to be) taken by the LHC experiments: if they find signals of new physics, and an underlying theory is assumed, could its parameters be determined uniquely, or do different parameter choices give indistinguishable experimental signatures? This inverse problem was studied before for a supersymmetric Standard Model with 15 free parameters. This earlier study found 283 indistinguishable pairs of parameter choices, called degenerate pairs, even if backgrounds are ignored. We can resolve all but 23 of those pairs by constructing a true \chi^2 distribution using mostly counting observables. The elimination of systematic errors would even allow separating the residual degeneracies. Taking the Standard Model background into account we still can resolve 237 of the 283 "degenerate" pairs. This indicates that (some of) our observables should also be useful for the purpose of determining the values of SUSY parameters.Comment: 32 pages, 13 figures, typo in (3.6) corrected, version to appear in Phys. Rev.

European land-use at 6000 BP: from on-site data to the large-scale view

No abstract available

Hunting for CDF Multi-Muon "Ghost" Events at Collider and Fixed-Target Experiments

In 2008 the CDF collaboration discovered a large excess of events containing two or more muons, at least one of which seemed to have been produced outside the beam pipe. We investigate whether similar "ghost" events could (and should) have been seen in already completed experiments. The CDF di-muon data can be reproduced by a simple model where a relatively light X particle undergoes four-body decay. This model predicts a large number of ghost events in Fermilab fixed-target experiments E772, E789 and E866, applying the cuts optimized for analyses of Drell-Yan events. A correct description of events with more than two muons requires a more complicated model, where two X particles are produced from a very broad resonance Y. This model can be tested in fixed-target experiments only if the cut on the angles, or rapidities, of the muons can be relaxed. Either way, the UA1 experiment at the CERN ppbar collider should have observed O(100) ghost events.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figure

Treatment fidelity in the Camden Weight Loss (CAMWEL) intervention assessed from recordings of advisor-participant consultations.

BACKGROUND: Variations in the delivery of content and process can alter the effectiveness of complex interventions. This study examined the fidelity of a weight loss intervention (Camden Weight Loss) from recorded consultations by assessing advisors' delivery of content, use of motivational interviewing approach and therapeutic alliance. METHODS: A process evaluation was conducted of advisor-participant consultations in a 12-month randomised controlled trial of an intervention for adult volunteers with a body mass index categorised as overweight or obese. A convenience sample of 22 consultations (12% of 191 participants) recorded at the intervention mid-point were available for analysis. Consultations were independently rated by two observers independent of intervention or study delivery, using: a fidelity scale, the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity Scale and the Primary Care Therapy Process Rating Scale. Raters were blind to participants' responses to the intervention and weight outcomes. Half the participants (N = 11) achieved significant weight loss (≥ 5% of baseline weight). RESULTS: A mean of 41% of prescribed content was delivered, with a range covered per session of 8-98%, falling below the 100% content expected per session. Tasks included most frequently were: taking weight and waist measurements (98%), scheduling next appointment (86%), review of general progress (85%) and reviewing weight change (84%). Individual items most frequently addressed were 'giving encouragement' and 'showing appreciation of participant's efforts' (95 and 88% respectively). Consultation length (mean 19 min, range 9-30) was shorter than the 30-min allocation. Quantity of content correlated with consultation length (p < 0.01). Advisors' use of motivational interviewing was rated at 'beginner proficiency' for Global Clinician Rating, Reflection to Question Ratio and Percent Open Questions. Therapeutic alliance scores were moderate. Affective aspects were rated highly (e.g. supportive encouragement, involvement and warmth). CONCLUSIONS: Intervention fidelity varied in both content and process, emphasising the importance of ongoing fidelity checks in a complex intervention. Advisors focused on certain practical aspects of the intervention and providing an encouraging interpersonal climate. This concurs with other research findings, which have revealed the value participants in a weight loss intervention place on an empathic advisor-participant relationship. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT00891943, on 1 May 2009

The experience of teasing in elective cosmetic surgery patients

The role of teasing as a motivator for patients undertaking elective cosmetic surgery was investigated. Pre-operative data were collected, using a range of standardized tests in addition to open ended questions about their experience of teasing, from 449 patients aged 18 to 70 undergoing elective cosmetic surgery in Australia. Just under half of the sample indicated that they had been teased or bullied about their appearance. Teased patients showed significantly higher levels of anxiety, depression and dysmorphic concern; lower levels of physical attractiveness and appearance satisfaction; and lower levels of satisfaction with discrete aspects of their appearance than nonteased patients. Teasing also contributed to longer periods of considering surgery as an answer to body dissatisfaction concerns, even when controlling for age. Prevention education initiatives on appearance-related teasing should be targeted at school students. This, along with earlier detection of the psychological impacts of weight and appearance-related teasing, fewer people, if offered strategies for coping through counseling, may contemplate surgery as a response to this teasing

Global-scale comparisons of human land use: developing shared terminology for land-use practices for global change

Although archaeological data are needed to understand the impacts of past human land use on the Earth system, synthesis is hampered by a lack of consistent categories. We develop hierarchical and scalable land-use classifications for use across the globe

Prehistoric land-cover and land-use history in Ireland at 6000 BP

Land cover and use are compared for Neolithic Ireland, revealing complex inter-relationships between land cover and the archaeological record. Land-cover data can be misinterpreted when isolated from the land-use activities that help shape them, while land-cover data complements land-use datasets

Perceptions of Acute Malnutrition and Its Management in Infants Under 6 Months of Age: A Qualitative Study in Rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization guidelines advise community-based care (CBC) for "uncomplicated" severe acute malnutrition (SAM) infants <6 months old (u6m), whereas current national protocols refer to inpatient care. Our aim was to inform and shape future management strategies by understanding caregivers' and different stakeholders' perceptions on malnutrition among infants u6m on barriers/facilitators to future CBC. METHODS: The methods used in this study are as follows: in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) in southern Bangladesh, thematic analysis of transcripts, and sample size by data saturation. RESULTS: We conducted 5 FGDs with 29 caregivers, 4 with 29 health care workers, 4 key informant interviews each with community leaders and health supervisors. Five themes emerged. 1) Identification of SAM infants and care-seeking behavior: malnutrition was not noticed until severe, caregivers focused on clinical symptoms. Both allopathic and traditional healers were consulted. (2) Perceived causes of infant malnutrition: underlying illness, poor feeding practices, poverty, and local superstitions. (3) Views and preferences on treatment: hospitals and doctors were perceived as offering the best treatment, health care workers were also important, and respondents highlighted the need care of the caregiver/mother along with the infant. (4) Perceived benefits and risks of CBC: lower cost and greater accessibility were appreciated but worried about quality. (5) Community networks: wider family and social support networks were considered important aspects of care. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable potential for CBC but needs to be better and earlier identification of at-risk infants, strengthening of health systems to avoid community options being perceived as "second best," engagement with families and communities to tackle "upstream" determinants of SAM, and care for mother-infant pairs

Exploiting routinely collected severe case data to monitor and predict influenza outbreaks

Abstract Background Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are reported weekly to Public Health England. These data are both readily available and have the potential to provide valuable information to estimate and predict the key transmission features of seasonal and pandemic influenza. Methods We propose an epidemic model that links the underlying unobserved influenza transmission process to data on severe influenza cases. Within a Bayesian framework, we infer retrospectively the parameters of the epidemic model for each seasonal outbreak from 2012 to 2015, including: the effective reproduction number; the initial susceptibility; the probability of admission to intensive care given infection; and the effect of school closure on transmission. The model is also implemented in real time to assess whether early forecasting of the number of admissions to intensive care is possible. Results Our model of admissions data allows reconstruction of the underlying transmission dynamics revealing: increased transmission during the season 2013/14 and a noticeable effect of the Christmas school holiday on disease spread during seasons 2012/13 and 2014/15. When information on the initial immunity of the population is available, forecasts of the number of admissions to intensive care can be substantially improved. Conclusion Readily available severe case data can be effectively used to estimate epidemiological characteristics and to predict the evolution of an epidemic, crucially allowing real-time monitoring of the transmission and severity of the outbreak