Population Projections for Forty-Four European Countries: The Ongoing Population Ageing

In the current paper we present the population projections for forty-four European countries. The dynamics of migration might prevent some European countries from experiencing population decline in the near future, although fertility has been below replacement for some time. Similarly, the EU-27 population is projected to further increase. Our results confirm that population ageing is underway all around Europe, albeit with clear differences across countries. According to the traditional measures of population age structure, the countries with the oldest populations are expected to be found within the EU. However, these measures do not take into account the longevity change: a man of 65 living in a country with a higher life expectancy might be at a different stage of the life cycle in comparison to a man of 65 living in a country with lower life expectancy. Relying on three alternative measures of age which consider explicitly changes in the remaining life expectancy, we find evidence that ageing will continue, but (1) it might be more severe in some countries where population is shrinking towards older ages but life expectancy is still rather low; (2) it might not be as fast as it appears when not adjusting for the longevity change. As an example, the former Soviet Union states and some countries of the Balkan region show the highest proportion of population with a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less; in Italy and Germany the prospective median age and the proportion of population with a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less might increase at a slower pace than the corresponding conventional measures, i.e. the population median age and the proportion of people aged 65+

Population Projections for non-EU / non-EFTA Countries in Europe

In this study we develop population projections for the non EU/non EFTA countries in Europe. The natural population dynamics recently observed in these countries are moving in a similar direction as in the rest of Europe, even though there is significant, country-specific heterogeneity regarding the intensity and timing of these changes. Contrary to other European countries, the majority of these countries will see a favourable period in terms of the characteristics of their population age profiles in the near future. With a low share of young and elderly populations on the one hand, and a prominent working-age population on the other hand, this demographic window could trigger socio-economic development. Yet this situation will only prevail during a short period, until the dependency ratio once more increases as the ageing process advances, which also seems to be an item on the future demographic agenda of these countries

European Demographic Datasheet 2016

The European Demographic Datasheet 2016 shows key demographic data, population trends and projections until 2050. It covers fertility, mortality, migration and population structure, including population ageing, and their changes. The datasheet combines data for all countries of Europe and for broader European regions, as well as maps, population pyramids, tables, graphs and featured thematic boxes. It pays special attention to the importance of migration for the current and future population changes across the continent and to the alternative indicators of population ageing. In comparison to the Data Sheet Poster, the online version provides expanded data coverage, additional maps and population pyramids, ranking charts and details about data sources and definitions. It also allows users to download all data and images

Cost-Effectiveness of Bosutinib for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Chronic Phase Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in the Second-Line Setting

Background A recently conducted matching-adjusted indirect comparison demonstrated that bosutinib improved progression-free survival, and delayed progression to advanced disease compared with dasatinib and nilotinib in patients with second line (2L) chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML). However, the long-term clinical and economic impact of using bosutinib versus dasatinib and nilotinib has not been evaluated. The objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of bosutinib compared with dasatinib and bosutinib compared with nilotinib from a US payer perspective. Methods A cost-effectiveness model was developed using partition survival methods and three health states: progression-free, progression, and death. Trial data (individual patient-level and aggregate-level data) informed the progression-free and overall survival estimates. Costs included drugs and medical resource use. Utility values were obtained from literature. Sensitivity analyses (SAs) included one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs). Results Comparing bosutinib versus dasatinib resulted in a gain of 0.4 discounted life years, 1.5 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental costs of $28,459 (values in 2020 US dollars), for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of$19,811/QALY gained. Comparing bosutinib versus nilotinib resulted in a gain of 0.8 discounted life-years, 1.8 QALYs, and incremental costs of $76,563, for an ICER of$41,932/QALY gained. Drug costs and extrapolation distribution type were the main drivers of the model in the one-way SAs. In the PSAs, bosutinib had >90% and >80% probabilities of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY versus dasatinib and nilotinib, respectively. Conclusions Our results suggest that compared with dasatinib and nilotinib, bosutinib may represent good value for money for treating 2L CP-CML patients

Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations

BACKGROUND: Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. Supporting non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven unpopular. A complementary approach is to raise the average labor force participation rate. These policies are generally more politically palatable because they often remove barriers, allowing people who would like to work to do so. OBJECTIVE: To conceptualize and estimate the trade-off between pension age and labor force participation rate policies. METHODS: We project the populations of European countries and apply different levels of labor force participation rates to the projected populations. We introduce the notion of a relative burden, which is the ratio of the fraction of the income of people in the labor market in 2050 that they transfer to adults out of the labor market to the same fraction in 2009. We use this indicator to investigate the trade-offs between changes in normal pension ages and the general level of labor force participation rates. RESULTS: We show that, in most European countries, a difference in policies that results in an increase in average labor force participation rates by an additional one to two percentage points by 2050 can substitute for a one-year increase in the normal pension age. This is important because, in many European countries, without additional increases in labor force participation rates, normal pension ages would have to be raised well above 68 by 2050 to keep the burden on those working manageable. CONCLUSIONS: Because of anticipated increases in life expectancy and health at older ages as well as because of financial necessity, some mix of increases in pension ages and in labor force participation rates will be needed. Pension age changes by themselves will not be sufficient

Quantifying Policy Tradeoffs to Support Aging Populations

Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. The support of non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven to be unpopular. A complementary approach is to raise the average labor force participation rate. These policies are generally more politically palatable. We conceptualized and estimated, for the first time, the tradeoff between pension age and labor force participation rate policies and show that, in most European countries, a difference in policies that results in an increase in labor force participation rates by an additional one to two percentage points by 2050 can substitute for a one year increase in the normal pension age

Antifungal and antimycobacterial activity of new N1-[1-aryl-2-(1H-Imidazol-1-yl and 1H-1,2,4-triazol-1-yl)-ethylidene]-pyridine-2-carboxamidrazone derivatives: A combined experimental and computational approach.

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