The IIASA Energy-Multi Criteria Analysis Tool (ENE-MCA)

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), building on work carried out within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA), have developed an interactive web-based scenario analysis tool that permits the concurrent assessment of synergies and trade-offs between multiple energy objectives at the global scale. This software, known as the IIASA Energy-Multi Criteria Analysis Policy Tool (ENE-MCA), is designed to assist national policy makers in their strategic policy planning processes. The tool extends work undertaken for the GEA and, as such, is built on the extensive set of global energy and environmental scenarios that have been generated as part of the GEA process. This document serves as an introduction to the ENE-MCA tool and as a brief manual for the typical user

Conduct disorder symptoms and illicit drug use in juvenile justice involved youth: The reciprocal relationship between positive illicit drug use attitudes and illicit drug use

Conduct disorder (CD) symptoms cooccur at high rates with illicit drug use in juvenile justice involved youth, which results in poorer outcomes; however, research has not identified where best to intervene in this relationship, limiting the identification of modifiable risk factors to reduce negative effects of CD symptoms. Two mediation models were examined to investigate the potential for CD symptoms to influence a reciprocal relationship between illicit drug use and positive drug attitudes, controlling for age, gender, and race. Data were examined for 245 juvenile justice involved youth (mean age = 15.46, SD = 1.30, range 12-18, 64.9% Black, 80.4% male) who completed court-ordered psychological assessments. Findings indicate: (1) Positive attitudes toward illicit drug use significantly mediated the relationship between CD symptoms and illicit drug use (β = 0.16, CI 0.09-0.27; test for indirect effect z = 4.17, p < .001) and (2) illicit drug use significantly mediated the relationship between CD symptoms and positive attitudes toward illicit drug use (β = 0.20, CI 0.12-0.32; test for indirect effect z = 4.87, p < .001). Overall, the present study suggests that CD symptoms impart risk for illicit drug use both indirectly, through more positive attitudes toward illicit drug use, and directly, which further strengthens positive attitudes toward illicit drug use

PTSD Symptoms Mediate the Relationship Between Sexual Abuse and Substance Use Risk in Juvenile Justice-Involved Youth

Juvenile justice-involved youth face disproportionate rates of sexual abuse, which increases the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and substance use disorders (SUDs), both of which are associated with poor long-term outcomes. The present study tested two mediation and moderation models, controlling for age, race, and history of physical abuse, with gender as a moderator, to determine whether PTSD symptoms serve as a risk factor and/or mechanism in the relationship between sexual abuse and substance use. Data were examined for 197 juvenile justice-involved youth (mean age = 15.45, 68.9% non-White, 78.4% male) that completed court-ordered psychological assessments. Results indicated that PTSD symptoms significantly mediated the relationship between sexual abuse and drug (β = 3.44, confidence interval [CI] [0.26, 7.41]; test for indirect effect z = 2.41, p = .02) and alcohol use (β = 1.42, CI [0.20, 3.46]; test for indirect effect z = 2.23, p = .03). PTSD symptoms and gender were not significant moderators. Overall, PTSD symptoms mediate the relationship between sexual abuse and SUDs in juvenile justice-involved youth, which suggests viability of targeting PTSD symptoms as a modifiable risk factor to reduce the effects of sexual abuse on substance use in this high-risk population

The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp)

The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed by IIASA has been a central tool of energy-environment-economy systems analysis in the global scientific and policy arena. It played a major role in the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); it provided marker scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs); and it underpinned the analysis of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA). Alas, to provide relevant analysis for current and future challenges, numerical models of human and earth systems need to support higher spatial and temporal resolution, facilitate integration of data sources and methodologies across disciplines, and become open and transparent regarding the underlying data, methods, and the scientific workflow. In this manuscript, we present the building blocks of a new framework for an integrated assessment modeling platform; the \ecosystem" comprises: i) an open-source GAMS implementation of the MESSAGE energy++ system model integrated with the MACRO economic model; ii) a Java/database backend for version-controlled data management, iii) interfaces for the scientific programming languages Python & R for efficient input data and results processing workflows; and iv) a web-browser-based user interface for model/scenario management and intuitive \drag-and-drop" visualization of results. The framework aims to facilitate the highest level of openness for scientific analysis, bridging the need for transparency with efficient data processing and powerful numerical solvers. The platform is geared towards easy integration of data sources and models across disciplines, spatial scales and temporal disaggregation levels. All tools apply best-practice in collaborative software development, and comprehensive documentation of all building blocks and scripts is generated directly from the GAMS equations and the Java/Python/R source code

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges

This research assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We illustrate how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Decarbonization will lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide (22-32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030). At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100-600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1-0.7% of GDP). Novel aspects of this work include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2°C climate target

Relationship of Blood Lactate and Sweat Lactate on Exercise Intensity

Typical procedures for measuring blood lactate involve either finger stick blood samples or venous blood draws. The literature is equivocal regarding whether sweat lactate values change with exercise intensity. Recently, wearable technology devices have been developed to measure sweat lactate. Purpose: To examine the relationship between sweat lactate and blood lactate values during incremental exercise. Methods: This study consisted of 12 (8 male, 4 female) healthy recreationally active individuals (VO2peak 35.5 ± 7.6 ml/kg/min) between the ages of 18 and 25 (22 ± 2 yrs) who volunteered for the study. Participants performed an exercise test on a cycle ergometer to volitional fatigue to determine blood lactate, lactate threshold, VO2peak, and peak heart rate (HR). Blood lactate was collected via finger stick at each 3-min stage of exercise. Participants performed a subsequent exercise session at 40, 60, and 80% heart rate reserve (HRR). During the 20-min stages of this test, blood and sweat lactate were collected during each intensity level. Sweat lactate was collected in a sweat “pouch” at each state of exercise. Sweat lactate samples were analyzed via the lactate oxidase method on a Chemwell 2910 chemistry analyzer. Blood lactate samples were analyzed using a Lactate Plus analyzer. Whole body sweat rate was calculated from pre- and post-exercise body weight at each intensity, factoring in water consumed and urine voided. Results: Sweat rate increased with increasing intensity (40%: 9.66 ± 7.58; 60%: 18.10 ± 12.51; 80% 24.32 ± 15.44 ml/min). Sweat lactate significantly differed between 60 and 80% intensities (15.66 ± 5.73, 12.52 ± 4.44 mmol/L, respectively), P = 0.03. Blood lactate levels at 40, 60, and 80% intensities were 2.67 ± 1.15, 3.60 ± 1.90, and 4.83 ± 1.52, respectively (P \u3c 0.001). CONCLUSION: These findings agree with Buono, Lee, & Miller, 2010 who found sweat lactate decreases as sweat rate increases. It is likely that sweat lactate decreases with increasing exercise intensity due to dilution as sweat rate increases. From this data, it appears that sweat lactate does not demonstrate a relationship with blood lactate that warrants replacing blood lactate in exercise testing with sweat lactate. This may be due to the lactate in sweat originating from eccrine glands and thus is not reflective of muscle metabolism

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges

This research assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We illustrate how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Decarbonization will lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide (22-32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030). At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100-600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1-0.7% of GDP). Novel aspects of this work include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2°C climate target

Estimation of the Global Health Impacts of Air Pollution

Air pollution is increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to global health outcomes. A methodological framework for evaluating the global health related outcomes of outdoor and indoor (household) air pollution is presented and validated for the year 2005. Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 re estimated with a combination of energy and atmospheric models, with detailed representation of urban and rural spatial exposures. Populations dependent on solid fuels are established with household survey data. Health impacts for outdoor and household air pollution are independently calculated using the fractions of disease that can be attributed to ambient air pollution exposure and solid fuel use. Estimated ambient pollution concentrations indicate that more than 80% of the population exceeds the WHO Air Quality Guidelines in 2005. In addition, 3.26 billion people were found to use solid fuel for cooking in three regions of Sub Saharan Africa, South Asia and Pacific Asia in 2005. Outdoor air pollution results in 2.7 million deaths or 23 million DALYs while household air pollution from solid fuel use and related indoor smoke results in 2.1 million deaths or 41.6 million DALYs. The higher morbidity from household air pollution can be attributed to children below the age of five in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia. The burden of disease from air pollution is found to be significant, thus indicating the importance of policy interventions