Autoregression as a means of assessing the strength of seasonality in a time series

BACKGROUND: The study of the seasonal variation of disease is receiving increasing attention from health researchers. Available statistical tests for seasonality typically indicate the presence or absence of statistically significant seasonality but do not provide a meaningful measure of its strength. METHODS: We propose the coefficient of determination of the autoregressive regression model fitted to the data ([Image: see text]) as a measure for quantifying the strength of the seasonality. The performance of the proposed statistic is assessed through a simulation study and using two data sets known to demonstrate statistically significant seasonality: atrial fibrillation and asthma hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The simulation results showed the power of the [Image: see text] in adequately quantifying the strength of the seasonality of the simulated observations for all models. In the atrial fibrillation and asthma datasets, while the statistical tests such as Bartlett's Kolmogorov-Smirnov (BKS) and Fisher's Kappa support statistical evidence of seasonality for both, the [Image: see text] quantifies the strength of that seasonality. Corroborating the visual evidence that asthma is more conspicuously seasonal than atrial fibrillation, the calculated [Image: see text] for atrial fibrillation indicates a weak to moderate seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.44, 0.28 and 0.45 for both genders, males and females respectively), whereas for asthma, it indicates a strong seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.82, 0.78 and 0.82 for both genders, male and female respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of health services research, evidence of the statistical presence of seasonality is insufficient to determine the etiologic, clinical and policy relevance of findings. Measurement of the strength of the seasonal effect, as can be determined using the [Image: see text] technique, is also important in order to provide a robust sense of seasonality

A population based time series analysis of asthma hospitalisations in Ontario, Canada: 1988 to 2000

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a common yet incompletely understood health problem associated with a high morbidity burden. A wide variety of seasonally variable environmental stimuli such as viruses and air pollution are believed to influence asthma morbidity. This study set out to examine the seasonal patterns of asthma hospitalisations in relation to age and gender for the province of Ontario over a period of 12 years. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based study design was used to assess temporal patterns in hospitalisations for asthma from April 1, 1988 to March 31, 2000. Approximately 14 million residents of Ontario eligible for universal healthcare coverage during this time were included for analysis. Time series analyses were conducted on monthly aggregations of hospitalisations. RESULTS: There is strong evidence of an autumn peak and summer trough seasonal pattern occurring every year over the 12-year period (Fisher-Kappa (FK) = 23.93, p > 0.01; Bartlett Kolmogorov Smirnov (BKS) = 0.459, p < 0.01). This pattern was observed in both sexes. However, young males (0–4 years) were hospitalised at two to three times the rate of females of the same age. Rates were much lower in the older age groups. A downward trend in asthma hospitalisations was observed in the total population over the twelve-year period (beta = -0.980, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: A clear and consistent seasonal pattern was observed in this study for asthma hospitalisations. These findings have important implications for the development of effective management and prevention strategies

Asthma Prevalence and Severity in Arab American Communities in the Detroit Area, Michigan

Immigrant populations provide a unique intersection of cultural and environmental risk factors implicated in asthma etiology. This study focuses on asthma prevalence and severity in 600 Arab American households in metro Detroit, the largest immigrant reception zone for Arab Americans in North America. The survey method introduced a number of novel features: (a) a ranking scheme for the key environmental risk factors for asthma was used to derive an aggregated environmental risk index (ERI) for each household, and (b) an aggregate measure of asthma severity based on symptom frequency and intensity. Environmental risk factors and surrogates for socioeconomic status (SES) were found to be stronger predictors of asthma prevalence than asthma severity, while demographic variables such as English fluency and birth in the United States were better predictors of asthma severity than asthma prevalence. These results suggest that SES variables may be more reflective of environmental exposures in communities involved in this study, while English fluency and birth in the United States may be linked to health care access and utilization behavior that can influence the asthma management. We also found a significant relationship between asthma prevalence and degree of acculturation. Asthma prevalence was highest among moderately acculturated immigrants compared with new immigrants and those who were well acculturated, suggesting that among Arab Americans in the Detroit area, risk factors associated with new immigrant status are replaced by “western” risk factors as the population becomes more acculturated.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44945/1/10903_2005_Article_3673.pd

Complete genome sequence of Vibrio fischeri: A symbiotic bacterium with pathogenic congeners

Vibrio fischeri belongs to the Vibrionaceae, a large family of marine γ-proteobacteria that includes several dozen species known to engage in a diversity of beneficial or pathogenic interactions with animal tissue. Among the small number of pathogenic Vibrio species that cause human diseases are Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Vibrio vulnificus, the only members of the Vibrionaceae that have had their genome sequences reported. Nonpathogenic members of the genus Vibrio, including a number of beneficial symbionts, make up the majority of the Vibrionaceae, but none of these species has been similarly examined. Here we report the genome sequence of V. fischeri ES114, which enters into a mutualistic symbiosis in the light organ of the bobtail squid, Euprymna scolopes. Analysis of this sequence has revealed surprising parallels with V. cholerae and other pathogens