Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record

The low-latitude boundary layer: Application of ISTP advances to past data

The destruction of the four Cluster craft was a major loss to the planned ISTP effort, of which studies of the magnetopause and low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) were an important part. While awaiting the re-flight mission, Cluster-II, we have been applying advances in our understanding made using other ISTP craft (like Polar and Wind) and using ground-based facilities (in particular the EISCAT incoherent scatter radars and the SuperDARN HF coherent radars) to measurements of the LLBL made in 1984 and 1985 by the AMPTE-UKS and -IRM spacecraft pair. In particular, one unexplained result of the AMPTE mission was that the electron characteristics could, in nearly all cases, order independent measurements near the magnetopause, such as the magnetic field, ion temperatures and the plasma flow. Studies of the cusp have shown that the precipitation is ordered by the time-elapsed since the field line was opened by reconnection. This insight has allowed us to reanalyse the AMPTE data and show that the ordering by the transition parameter is also due to the variation of time elapsed since reconnection, with the important implication that reconnection usually coats most of the dayside magnetopause with at least some newly-opened field lines. In addition, we can use the electron characteristics to isolate features like RDs, slow-mode shocks and slow-mode expansion fans. The ion characteristics can be used to compute the reconnection rate. We here retrospectively apply these new techniques, developed in the ISTP era, to a much-studied flux transfer event observed by the AMPTE satellites. As a result, we gain new understanding of its cause and structure

3D printed agglomerates for granule breakage tests

In the research into agglomeration, a long term barrier is the lack of a universally accepted method to evaluate the breakage propensity of agglomerates. Computer simulation is often used but is limited by the lack of identical, controlled agglomerates to test and validate simple models, let alone replicate the complex structure of real industrial agglomerates. This paper presents work on the characterisation of strength of model test agglomerates prepared by a 3D printing production method enabling fully reproducible structures. Agglomerates were designed using Solidworks 2014 software and printed by an Objet500 Connex 3D printer. Materials with different mechanical properties were used to print the particles and the inter particle bonds, allowing a series of combinations of bond strength, particle strength and agglomerate structure to be tested. Compression and impact tests were performed to investigate the breakage behaviour of the printed agglomerates in terms of agglomerate orientations, bond properties and strain rates. This method will allow more rigorous testing of agglomerate breakage models

The progestin-only contraceptive medroxyprogesterone acetate, but not norethisterone acetate, enhances HIV-1 Vpr-mediated apoptosis in human CD4+ T cells through the glucocorticoid receptor

The glucocorticoid receptor (GR) regulates several physiological functions, including immune function and apoptosis. The HIV-1 virus accessory protein, viral protein R (Vpr), can modulate the transcriptional response of the GR. Glucocorticoids (GCs) and Vpr have been reported to induce apoptosis in various cells, including T-cells. We have previously shown that the injectable contraceptive, medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) is a partial to full agonist for the GR, unlike norethisterone acetate (NET-A). We investigated the functional cross talk between the GR and Vpr in inducing apoptosis in CD4 + T-cells, in the absence and presence of GCs and these progestins, as well as progesterone. By using flow cytometry, we show that, in contrast to NET-A and progesterone, the synthetic GR ligand dexamethasone (Dex), cortisol and MPA induce apoptosis in primary CD4 + T-cells. Furthermore, the C-terminal part of the Vpr peptide, or HIV-1 pseudovirus, together with Dex or MPA further increased the apoptotic phenotype, unlike NET-A and progesterone. By a combination of Western blotting, PCR and the use of receptor- selective agonists, we provide evidence that the GR and the estrogen receptor are the only steroid receptors expressed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. These results, together with the findings that RU486, a GR antagonist, prevents Dex-, MPA- and Vpr-mediated apoptosis, provide evidence for the first time that GR agonists or partial agonists increase apoptosis in primary CD4 + T-cells via the GR. We show that apoptotic induction involves differential expression of key apoptotic genes by both Vpr and GCs/MPA. This work suggests that contraceptive doses of MPA but not NET-A or physiological doses of progesterone could potentially accelerate depletion of CD4 + T-cells in a GR-dependent fashion in HIV-1 positive women, thereby contributing to immunodeficiency. The results imply that choice of progestin used in contraception may be critical to susceptibility and progression of diseases such as HIV-1

Using Extreme Value Theory for Determining the Probability of Carrington-Like Solar Flares

Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. By their very nature, extreme space weather events occur rarely and, therefore, statistical methods are required to determine the probability of their occurrence. Space weather events can be characterised by a number of natural phenomena such as X-ray (solar) flares, solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes, coronal mass ejections and various geophysical indices (Dst, Kp, F10.7). In this paper extreme value theory (EVT) is used to investigate the probability of extreme solar flares. Previous work has assumed that the distribution of solar flares follows a power law. However such an approach can lead to a poor estimation of the return times of such events due to uncertainties in the tails of the probability distribution function. Using EVT and GOES X-ray flux data it is shown that the expected 150-year return level is approximately an X60 flare whilst a Carrington-like flare is a one in a 100-year event. It is also shown that the EVT results are consistent with flare data from the Kepler space telescope mission.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures; updated content following reviewer feedbac

Kinetics of immersion nucleation driven by surface tension

Immersion nucleation is the nuclei formation mechanism for wet granulation systems where the liquid drops are large relative to the primary particles. The process of immersion nucleation has been examined in many studies, however the kinetics of nuclei formation are not well understood, and there is a distinct lack of experimentally validated models for this process. A kinetic model has been proposed by Hounslow et al. (2009) which describes surface tension driven immersion nucleation. This paper presents the results from a series of experiments measuring the kinetics of immersion nucleation, and these results are compared with the model predictions. Drops of model liquids (aqueous HPMC solution and silicone oil) are placed on static powder beds of zeolite and lactose. Nuclei granules are carefully excavated at different times and the change in granule mass with time is measured. As predicted by Hounslow et al.'s model, the granule mass increases with the square root of time to a maximum granule size at a time tmax after an initial adjustment period. The critical packing factor is shown to be a function of powder properties, and not dependent on the liquid properties. The model captures well the measured effects of liquid and powder properties. However, the kinetics of the nucleation process are much slower than predicted by the model. It is believed this is due to continued percolation of the liquid within the powder bed, after the liquid drop is fully immersed. This secondary liquid movement may have an important effect on granule growth kinetics, and influence final granule product properties