Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management: case of Hajj pilgrimage

Abstract Background Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals. Methods We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram. Results The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site. Conclusions This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events

Mosquito-borne arboviruses of African origin: review of key viruses and vectors

Abstract Key aspects of 36 mosquito-borne arboviruses indigenous to Africa are summarized, including lesser or poorly-known viruses which, like Zika, may have the potential to escape current sylvatic cycling to achieve greater geographical distribution and medical importance. Major vectors are indicated as well as reservoir hosts, where known. A series of current and future risk factors is addressed. It is apparent that Africa has been the source of most of the major mosquito-borne viruses of medical importance that currently constitute serious global public health threats, but that there are several other viruses with potential for international challenge. The conclusion reached is that increased human population growth in decades ahead coupled with increased international travel and trade is likely to sustain and increase the threat of further geographical spread of current and new arboviral disease