287 research outputs found
Election turnout statistics in many countries: similarities, differences, and a diffusive field model for decision-making
We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11
different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a
previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find
in particular that the spatial correlation of turnout rates decay
logarithmically with distance in all cases. This result is quantitatively
reproduced by a decision model that assumes that each voter makes his mind as a
result of three influence terms: one totally idiosyncratic component, one
city-specific term with short-ranged fluctuations in space, and one long-ranged
correlated field which propagates diffusively in space. A detailed analysis
reveals several interesting features: for example, different countries have
different degrees of local heterogeneities and seem to be characterized by a
different propensity for individuals to conform to the cultural norm. We
furthermore find clear signs of herding (i.e. strongly correlated decisions at
the individual level) in some countries, but not in others.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, 7 table
Bayesian sequential integration within a preclinical pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling framework:Lessons learned
The present manuscript aims to discuss the implications of sequential knowledge integration of small preclinical trials in a Bayesian pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) framework. While, at first sight, a Bayesian PK-PD framework seems to be a natural framework to allow for sequential knowledge integration, the scope of this paper is to highlight some often-overlooked challenges while at the same time providing some guidances in the many and overwhelming choices that need to be made. Challenges as well as opportunities will be discussed that are related to the impact of (1) the prior specification, (2) the choice of random effects, (3) the type of sequential integration method. In addition, it will be shown how the success of a sequential integration strategy is highly dependent on a carefully chosen experimental design when small trials are analyzed
Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections
How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a
head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather
anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify
tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a
model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative
strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between
individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the
polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of
victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls'
impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model
reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian
mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure
How can the stigma of public transport as the ‘poor man’s vehicle’ be overcome to enhance sustainability and climate change mitigation?
Natural Resources Forum, a United Nations Sustainable Development Journal is running a special series over the
2009-2011 period on themes to be considered by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development in its 18th
and 19th sessions: chemicals, mining, sustainable consumption and production, transport and waste management. In this
issue, experts address the question:
“How can the stigma of public transport as the ‘poor man’s vehicle’ be overcome to enhance sustainability and
climate change mitigation?
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