Predicting aquatic development and mortality rates of Aedes aegypti.

Mosquito-borne pathogens continue to be a significant burden within human populations, with Aedes aegypti continuing to spread dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus throughout the world. Using data from a previously conducted study, a linear regression model was constructed to predict the aquatic development rates based on the average temperature, temperature fluctuation range, and larval density. Additional experiments were conducted with different parameters of average temperature and larval density to validate the model. Using a paired t-test, the model predictions were compared to experimental data and showed that the prediction models were not significantly different for average pupation rate, adult emergence rate, and juvenile mortality rate. The models developed will be useful for modeling and estimating the upper limit of the number of Aedes aegypti in the environment under different temperature, diurnal temperature variations, and larval densities

Impacts of diurnal temperature and larval density on aquatic development of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> - Fig 5

<p>(A) Mean proportion of larval mortality with 95% confidence intervals. (B) Mean time of first pupation with 95% confidence intervals. (C) Mean time of first adult emergence with 95% confidence intervals. (D) Mean proportion of adult mosquitoes with 95% confidence intervals.</p

Daily data collection process.

<p>Daily data collection process.</p

Impacts of diurnal temperature and larval density on aquatic development of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> - Fig 6

<p>(A) Interaction plot of proportion of larval mortality. (B) Interaction plot of first pupation. (C) Interaction plot of first adult emergence. (D) Interaction plot of proportion of adult mosquitoes.</p

Impacts of diurnal temperature and larval density on aquatic development of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> - Fig 4

<p>(A) Proportion of larvae under D26-37. (B) Proportion of pupae under D26-37. (C) Proportion of emerged adults under D26-37. (D) Proportion of larvae under C32. (E) Proportion of pupae under C32. (F) Proportion of emerged adult mosquitoes under C32.</p

Average daily high, average, and low temperatures for Houston, Texas.

<p>Average daily high, average, and low temperatures for Houston, Texas.</p

Impacts of diurnal temperature and larval density on aquatic development of <i>Aedes aegypti</i>

<div><p>The increasing range of <i>Aedes aegypti</i>, vector for Zika, dengue, chikungunya, and other viruses, has brought attention to the need to understand the population and transmission dynamics of this mosquito. It is well understood that environmental factors and breeding site characteristics play a role in organismal development and the potential to transmit pathogens. In this study, we observe the impact of larval density in combination with diurnal temperature on the time to pupation, emergence, and mortality of <i>Aedes aegypti</i>. Experiments were conducted at two diurnal temperature ranges based on 10 years of historical temperatures of Houston, Texas (21–32°C and 26.5–37.5°C). Experiments at constant temperatures (26.5°C, 32°C) were also conducted for comparison. At each temperature setting, five larval densities were observed (0.2, 1, 2, 4, 5 larvae per mL of water). Data collected shows significant differences in time to first pupation, time of first emergence, maximum rate of pupation, time of maximum rate of pupation, maximum rate of emergence, time of maximum rate of emergence, final average proportion of adult emergence, and average proportion of larval mortality. Further, data indicates a significant interactive effect between temperature fluctuation and larval density on these measures. Thus, wild population estimates should account for temperature fluctuations, larval density, and their interaction in low-volume containers.</p></div