Klimaverhandlungen: Welche Erwartungen können an den Klimagipfel in Paris gestellt werden?

Kurz vor dem anstehenden Klimagipfel äußert sich Angela Merkel in der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung wie folgt: "Zu Recht wird von Regierungen und Politikern erwartet, daß sie nicht länger die Augen vor erdrückenden wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnissen verschließen, daß der Klimaschutz rasches und energisches Handeln erfordert." Frau Merkel stellt schließlich eine klare Forderung an die Ergebnisse des Klimagipfels: "Die Treibhausgasemissionen müssen nicht nur stabilisiert, sondern möglichst rasch vermindert werden." Diese Aussagen sind heute noch aktuell, wurden jedoch tatsächlich am 26. März 1995 veröffentlicht (FAS, 1995); zu der Zeit also als Frau Merkel selbst noch das Amt der Bundesumweltministerin bekleidete und kurz darauf den ersten Klimagipfel als Präsidentin eröffnete. Nach mehr als 20 Jahren der Klimadiplomatie im Rahmen der Vereinten Nationen liegt die Aufmerksamkeit nun auf dem 21. Klimagipfel (COP, Conference of the Parties), der vom 30. November bis zum 11. Dezember in Paris stattfinden wird. Diesem Gipfel wird allgemeinhin zugeschrieben, die letzte Chance für eine rechtzeitige globale Einigung zur Vermeidung eines gefährlichen Klimawandels zu sein. In diesem DIW Roundup beleuchten wir die anstehende COP21 und diskutieren sowohl den aktuellen Stand als auch kontroverse Punkte der anstehenden Verhandlungen. Zudem zeigen wir Meilensteine bisheriger Klimagipfel und erläutern die ökonomische Theorie hinter internationalen Umweltabkommen

The Paris Climate Agreement: Is it sufficient to limit climate change?

"The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph for people and our planet" (UN News Centre, 2015). Statements, like this one from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, represent the global excitement shortly after the acceptance of the Paris Agreement and describe the outcome of the COP21 in December 2015 primarily as 'historical'. Twenty years after the UN's first COP (Conference of the Parties), the international community reached "the first universal agreement in the history of climate negotiations" (French Government, 2015). Euphoria about the diplomatic success gave way to scepticism if the deal will actually have real political power to initiate ambitious climate policy worldwide that can prevent dangerous levels of climate change. It will be the next years and decades that show whether the Paris Agreement can create the so far missing global ambition to limit anthropogenic climate change and its capability to reduce risks and vulnerability to the impacts of an already changed climate. In this DIW Roundup we discuss the most important achievements of the negotiations in Paris, and show necessary steps, so that the convention will lead to the historic actions it is meant to create. Doing so, we complement a previous DIW Roundup, where we evaluated expectations prior to the Paris climate talks in December 2015

Development of a methodology of evaluation of financial stability of commercial banks

The field of evaluation of financial stability of commercial banks, which emanates from persistent existence of financial crisis, induces interest of researchers for over a century. The span of prevailing methodologies stretches from over-simplified risk-return approaches to ones comprising large number of economic variables on the micro- and/or macro-economic level. Methodologies of rating agencies and current methodologies reviewed and applied by the ECB are not intended for reducing information asymmetry in the market of commercial banks. In the paper it is shown that the Lithuanian financial system is bankbased with deposits of households being its primary sources, and its stability is primarily depending on behavior of depositors. A methodology of evaluation of commercial banks with features of decreasing information asymmetry in the market of commercial banks is being developed by comparing different MCDA methods

Robustness in regional development studies. The case of Lithuania

The definition of robustness in econometrics, the error term in a linear equation, was not only broadened, but, in addition, moved to the meaning of common language: from a cardinal to a qualitative one: the most robust one, more robust than…, as robust as……, robust, weak robust, less robust than…, not robust, etc. Both interpretations are tested by an application on the Robustness in Regional Development, namely of the Lithuanian Regions. The computation of Regional Income, being an exponent of the welfare economy, is not sufficient for the measurement of the well‐being of the regional population. The well‐being economy goes farther. In the well‐being economy, each individual would have to feel good concerning material wealth, health, education, all kind of security and concerning the environment. In other words, multiple objectives have to be fulfilled. Moreover, these different multiple objectives are expressed in different units. Weights are most of the time used to equalize these different units. However, introduction of weights means also introduction of subjectivity. In order to avoid this dilemma, the internal mechanical solution of a ratio system, producing dimensionless numbers, is preferred. In addition, this outcome creates the opportunity to use also a non‐subjective reference point theory. The choice of the objectives is also non‐subjective if all stakeholders are involved, or if all possible objectives are represented. This theory, which is called MOORA (Multi‐Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis), is applied to the different regions of Lithuania. A redistribution of income has to take place from the well‐being Lithuanian regions to the poorer regions, but under limiting conditions and for well defined and eventually controlled projects. First Publish Online: 09 Jun 201

How to invest in Belgian shares by MULTIMOORA optimization

Different multiple objectives expressed in different units make optimization difficult. Therefore, the internal mechanical solution of a Ratio System, producing dimensionless numbers, is preferred to weights, which are most of the time used to compare the different units. In addition, the ratio system creates the opportunity to use a second approach: a non-subjective Reference Point Theory. Therefore, the Reference Point Theory uses the ratios found in the ratio system as co-ordinates for the alternative solutions, which are then compared to a Maximal Objective Reference Point. The two approaches form a control on each other. This overall theory is called MOORA (Multi-Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis). The results are still more convincing if a Full Multiplicative Form is added, three methods assembled under the name of MULTIMOORA. At that moment, the control by three different approaches forms a guaranty for a solution being as non-subjective as possible. As to calculate the sum of three obtained ranks is not allowed, a theory of Ordinal Dominance is developed in order to remain in the ordinal sphere. MULTIMOORA is used to decide upon an investment in Belgian shares on basis of a ranking in the BEL20 Index

Is credit rating reserved territory for credit rating agencies? A MULTIMOORA approach for European firms and countries

Credit Rating Agencies rate firms and countries by internal experts but with a final qualitative judgment by their management acting as decision makers. These ratings on their turn influence the countries credit rating and ipso facto of their enterprises. The work of the CRA is in fact double: credit rating of firms and other organizations at one side and countries on the other. Considering the credit rating of firms, the CRA made significant mistakes during the Recession 2007−2009 and their judgment is too much American oriented, in any way from a European point of view. Consequently, in Europe many efforts were made to come to a new agency, but all efforts failed. It could be different for the rating of countries. Is a more scientific approach, eventually on a quantitative and structural basis, not possible? Therefore, MULTIMOORA, a quantitative method, is suggested. The study was made for all countries of the European Continent. Based on data available in 2013 and on their extrapolation, the results are quite comparable to the results of Standard & Poor’s Credit Rating System of the moment. As the classifications of Moody’s and Fitch are very similar to those of Standard & Poor’s the outcome would be similar for these other Credit Rating Agencies

European Union member states preparing for Europe 2020. An application of the MULTIMOORA method

It is the intention of the European Union to create a growing and sustainable European economy by 2020, a much more moderate target than the 2010 target of becoming the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world. This intention has to be supported by an adequate Optimization and Decision Support System. Therefore, MULTIMOORA is proposed. MULTIMOORA is a quantitative method, which compares multiple and optimum objectives, expressed in different units, as much as possible on a non-subjective basis. In opposition to similar methods MULTIMOORA does not need normalization, being based on dimensionless measures. Importance of an objective can eventually be given by the stakeholders concerned. MULTIMOORA is composed of three approaches: Ratio System, Reference Point and Multiplicative Form Methods, all of the same importance and each controlling each other. Twenty two objectives, 10 originating from statistics and 12 from statistics and forecasts, important for the future, characterize the 27 EU-Countries economies as a preparation for 2020. Which of these countries are the best prepared for 2020? A Dominance Theory, summarizing the three obtained ordinal numbers per country, ranks the 27 countries for that purpose

VIŠECILJNA OPTIMIZACIJA BLAGOSTANJA U ZEMLJAMA ČLANICAMA EU-ROPSKE UNIJE

Well-being is of crucial importance for both individual and society as a whole. It is therefore important to quantify performance and progress made by certain states, regions, communities, social groups, and individuals in improving their well–being. The aim of study was to offer a new framework for multi–criteria assessment as well as international comparison of objective well–being. Well–being is a multi–dimensional phenomenon; hence the appropriate indicator system should be capable to identify the most important underlying processes influencing well–being. For our research we have established the indicator system of twelve indicators identifying various dimensions of well–being. Therefore we propose MULTIMOORA, a model which can be used for approaching the objective of societal well–being. It is applied for international comparison of the well-being in the EU Member States. Consequently, it was revealed that Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, France, Cy-prus, Finland, Germany, and Belgium have achieved the highest level of well–being as of 2009. At the other end of spectrum, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Lat-via, and Romania can be considered as those peculiar with relatively lowest well–being.Blagostanje je od ključnog značaja kako za pojedinca tako i za društvo u cjelini. Stoga je važno kvantificirati performanse i napredak određenih država, regija, zajednica, društvenih grupa i pojedinaca kako bi se unaprijedilo njihovo blagostanje. Cilj istraživanja je ponuditi novi okvir za višeciljnu procjenu kao i međunarodnu usporedbu objektivnog blagostanja. Blagostanje je višedimenzionalna pojava; stoga bi prikladni sustav indikatora trebao biti u mogućnosti identificirati najvažnije temeljne procese koji utječu na blagostanje. Za potrebe našeg istraživanja ustanovili smo indikatorski sustav od dvanaest indikatora koji identificiraju razne dimenzije blagostanja. Stoga predlažemo MULTIMOORA, model koji se može koristiti za približavanje cilju društvenog blagostan-ja. Primjenjuje se u svrhu međunarodne usporedbe blagostanja u zemljama članicama EU. Tako se otkrilo da su Irska, Nizozemska, Danska, Austrija, Francuska, Cipar, Finska, Njemačka i Belgija do-segle najviši stupanj blagostanja od 2009. Na drugom kraju spektra se nalaze Češka, Litva, Slovačka, Bugarska, Poljska, Mađarska, Estonija, Latvija i Rumunjska u kojima je blagostanje najniže

Lithuanian case study of masonry buildings from the Soviet period

This paper presents the process of effective selection of building elements for renovation important for energy saving in buildings. A large part of energy is lost in non-effective buildings. Therefore, in renovation of buildings, it is important to select effective structural improvements. Building insulation could not only save energy but also time, money and materials, which means that different objectives expressed in different units have to be fulfilled. Although different methods exist for the application of Multi Objective Optimisation, MULTIMOORA, which is composed of three sub-methods – Ratio System, Reference Point Method that uses ratios from the ratio system, and the Full Multiplicative Form – was preferred. Consequently, different solutions for building envelope renovation were ranked by MULTIMOORA as applied for masonry buildings from the Soviet period

The construction sector in twenty European countries during the recession 2008–2009 – country ranking by MULTIMOORA

The recession 2008-2009 which influenced the World economy has set new challenges for the development of the European construction sector. In the years 2008–2009 a great number of countries faced serious production and employment breakdowns. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the construction sector from a macroeconomic point of view by comparing construction market variations appeared during the crisis in twenty European countries. Therefore statistical indicators of the construction sector were used and a multiobjective evaluation method under the name of MULTIMOORA was employed. However these traditional indicators of the construction sector deliver an incomplete definition of real situations within the sector as during the recession plenty of constructed buildings remained unsold. Therefore the authors of this article propose a rather complex comparison of construction indicators for different European countries. The case study provides the analysis and calculations performed with the help of the MULTIMOORA method. This method enables the evaluation of European countries in accordance with the investigated objectives and ranges them into different groups according to the objectives set for the construction sector