A host signature based on TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP for reducing antibiotic overuse in children by differentiating bacterial from viral infections: a prospective, multicentre cohort study

Objectives: Identifying infection aetiology is essential for appropriate antibiotic use. Previous studies have shown that a host-protein signature consisting of TNF-related apoptosis-induced ligand (TRAIL), interferon-γ-induced protein-10 (IP-10), and C-reactive protein (CRP) can accurately differentiate bacterial from viral infections. Methods: This prospective, multicentre cohort study, entitled AutoPilot-Dx, aimed to validate signature performance and to estimate its potential impact on antibiotic use across a broad paediatric population (>90 days to 18 years) with respiratory tract infections, or fever without source, at emergency departments and wards in Italy and Germany. Infection aetiology was adjudicated by experts based on clinical and laboratory investigations, including multiplex PCR and follow-up data. Results: In total, 1140 patients were recruited (February 2017–December 2018), of which 1008 met the eligibility criteria (mean age 3.5 years, 41.9% female). Viral and bacterial infections were adjudicated for 628 (85.8%) and 104 (14.2%) children, respectively; 276 patients were assigned an indeterminate reference standard outcome. For the 732 children with reference standard aetiology, the signature discriminated bacterial from viral infections with a sensitivity of 93.7% (95%CI 88.7–98.7), a specificity of 94.2% (92.2–96.1), positive predictive value of 73.0% (65.0–81.0), and negative predictive value of 98.9% (98.0–99.8); in 9.8% the test results were equivocal. The signature performed consistently across different patient subgroups and detected bacterial immune responses in viral PCR-positive patients. Conclusions: The findings validate the high diagnostic performance of the TRAIL/IP-10/CRP signature in a broad paediatric cohort, and support its potential to reduce antibiotic overuse in children with viral infections

A holistic evaluation of patients with chronic Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection enrolled in the Italian PITER-B and delta cohort

Background and Aims: We aimed to characterize the epidemiologic and comorbidities profiles of patients with chronic Hepatitis D (CHD) followed in clinical practice in Italy and explored their interferon (IFN) eligibility. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of the PITER cohort consisting of consecutive HBsAg-positive patients from 59 centers over the period 2019-2023. Multivariable analysis was performed by logistic regression model. Results: Of 5492 HBsAg-positive enrolled patients, 4152 (75.6%) were screened for HDV, 422 (10.2%) were anti-HDV positive. Compared with HBsAg mono-infected, anti-HDV positive patients were more often younger, non-Italians, with a history of drug use, had elevated alanine transaminase (ALT), cirrhosis, or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Compared with Italians, anti-HDV positive non-Italians were younger (42.2% age ≤ 40 years vs. 2.1%; P < 0.001), more often females (males 43.0% vs. 68.6%; P < 0.001) with less frequent cirrhosis and HCC. HDV-RNA was detected in 63.2% of anti-HDV-positive patients, who were more likely to have elevated ALT, cirrhosis, and HCC. Extrahepatic comorbidities were present in 47.4% of anti-HDV positive patients and could affect the eligibility of IFN-containing therapies in at least 53.0% of patients in care. Conclusions: CHD affects young, foreign-born patients and older Italians, of whom two-thirds had cirrhosis or HCC. Comorbidities were frequent in both Italians and non-Italians and impacted eligibility for IFN

Is HCV elimination among persons living with HIV feasible? Data from the NoCo study in the setting of the ICONA cohort

Background and aims: Whether the HCV test-and-treat strategy impacted on the rate of new HCV infections among PLWH in Italy is unknown. Methods: Prospective study of PLWH in the ICONA network. At baseline, PLWH were tested for HCV-Ab; HCV-RNA (if HCV-Ab positive) and, if positive, treated with DAA. SVR12 indicated eradication. Seroconversions and re-infections were evaluated yearly in HCV-Ab neg and HCV-RNA neg at first screening. We estimated the following: HCV seroconversions, incidence of HCV reinfections, and access to DAA and SVR12 rates tighter with factors associated with each outcome. Data were analysed by Cox regression, Poisson regression and logistic regression models. Results: Sixteen thousand seven hundred and forty-three PLWH were included; 27.3% HCV-Ab positive; of these, 39.3% HCV-RNA positive. HCV seroconversion incidence: .48/100 PYFU (95% CI: .36-.65); re-infections incidence: 1.40/100 PYFU (95% CI: .91-2.04). The risk factor for HCV re-infection was young age: aIRR 1.85, 95% CI: 1.17-2.95) per 10 years younger. 86.4% of HCV viremic in follow-up started DAA. PWID vs. heterosexuals (aHR .75, 95% CI .62-.90), HIV-RNA >50 copies/mL (aHR .70, 95% CI .56-.87), HCV genotype other than G1, G2, G3, G4 or with multiple/missing HCV genotype and post-COVID-19 calendar periods were associated with lower DAA access. 922/965 (95.5%) PLWH achieved SVR12. We estimated 72% reduction of chance to achieve SVR12 in PLWH with a CD4 count <200/mm3 (vs. CD4 ≥200/mm3 aOR .18, 95% CI: .07-.46). 95.5% of DAA-treated individuals eradicated HCV, but they represent only 53.2% of HCV viremic PLWH and 66.4% of those in follow-up. HCV-RNA positivity by year decreased from 41.7% in 2017 to 11.7% in 2022. Conclusions: The screening-and-treat campaign implemented in Italy, even if only partially effective, resulted in a dramatic drop in HCV circulation in our cohort

Does Syphilis Increase the Risk of HIV-RNA Elevation >200 Copies/mL in HIV-Positive Patients under Effective Antiretroviral Treatment? Data from the ICONA Cohort

Background:To assess the impact of syphilis infection on the risk of HIV-RNA elevation in people living with HIV (PLWH) with current HIV-RNA ≤50 copies/mL.Setting:The Italian Cohort Naive Antiretrovirals.Methods:All PLWH (2009-2020) under antiretroviral treatment with at least 2 consecutive HIV-RNA values ≤50 copies/mL before the date of syphilis diagnosis and at least 1 HIV-RNA determination after the syphilis event were enrolled. A control group of PLWH without syphilis was matched for mode of HIV transmission. Outcomes were defined using the first HIV-RNA measure in the time window ranging between -2 and +6 months of the diagnosis/index date. The primary outcome used a single value >200 copies/mL to define HIV-RNA elevation associated with risk of transmission. The association between syphilis infection and the protocol defined outcome was evaluated using logistic regression analysis.Results:Nine hundred twenty-six PLWH with a syphilis event were enrolled and matched with a random sample of 1370 PLWH without syphilis. Eighteen of the 926 (1.9%) with syphilis had ≥1 HIV-RNA >200 copies/mL in the window vs. 29/1370 (2.1%) of the not exposed (P = 0.77). In the multivariable analysis adjusted for age, year of diagnosis/index date, and clinical site, syphilis infection was not associated with the risk of HIV-RNA >200 copies/mL (adjusted odds ratio 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.43-1.52, P = 0.508).Conclusions:We did not find any evidence for an association between syphilis infection and viral elevation >200 copies/mL

Effectiveness of dolutegravir-based vs boosted darunavir-based first-line 3-drug regimens in people with HIV with advanced disease: A trial emulation

Background: No randomized comparisons exist between dolutegravir (DTG) and boosted-darunavir (DRV/b) for people initiating treatment with advanced HIV. Methods: Antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve people with HIV (PWH) with CD4 < 200 cells/mm3 or AIDS who started a first-line three-drug regimen with DTG or DRV/b were included. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of newly diagnosed AIDS, serious non-AIDS events (SNAE), death, virological failure (VF), or discontinuation of the anchor drug due to failure or toxicity. A marginal structural Cox regression model was used to estimate the effect of starting DTG vs DRV/b-based regimens. Results: A total of 1323 advanced ART-naïve PWH were included, 895 starting DTG and 428 DRV/b. The unweighted risks of the composite endpoint by 48 months were 21.1% (95% CI: 18.1; 24.1%) for DTG vs 37.9% (95% CI: 32.7; 43.2%) for DRV/b (P < 0.001). First-line treatment with DTG showed a lower risk of experiencing the composite endpoint than DRV/b (wHR of DTG vs DRV/b 0.47, 95% CI: 0.35; 0.64, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Under the stated assumptions, this analysis indicates that in ART-naïve PWH with advanced disease, ART initiation with DTG vs DRV/b-based regimens leads to a 50% reduction in the risk of AIDS/SNAE/death/VF/discontinuation. This observed difference is partly explained by discontinuation of the anchor drug

Determinants of worse liver‐related outcome according to HDV infection among HBsAg positive persons living with HIV: Data from the ICONA cohort

Objectives: We aimed to study hepatitis D virus (HDV) prevalence and risk of progression to severe liver-related events (SLRE) in HBsAg positive people living with HIV (PLWH) in Italy; role of HDV-RNA copy levels, HCV coinfection and nadir CD4 counts were also investigated.Methods: People living with HIV (PLWH) from Italian Foundation cohort Naive antiretrovirals (ICONA) with available HBsAg and HDV Ab were enrolled. HBsAg, HDV Ab, HDV-RNA and HDV genotypes were tested. Primary end-point: time from first HDV screening to Severe Liver Related Events (SLRE: decompensated cirrhosis, liver transplantation, HCC). Fine-grey regression models were used to evaluate the association of HDV Ab, HDV-RNA, HDV/HCV coinfection, CD4 nadir and outcome. Secondary end-points: time to SLRE or death; HDV Ab and HDV-RNA prevalence.Results: A total of 152/809 (18.8%) HBsAg positive PLWH showed HDV Ab reactivity; 63/93 (67.7%) were HDV-RNA positive. Being male, persons who inject drugs (PWID), HCV Ab positive, with FIB-4 > 3.25 were independent factors of HDV Ab positivity. In a median follow-up of 5 years, 37 PLWH (4.1% at 5-year) developed SLRE and 97 (12.0%) reached the SLRE or death end-point. HDV-RNA positive (independently from HDV-RNA copy level) PLWH had a 4.6-fold (95%CI 2.0-10.5) higher risk of SLRE than HDV negatives. PLWH positive for both HCV Ab and HDV Ab showed the highest independent risk of SLRE (ASHR: 11.9, 95%CI: 4.6-30.9 vs. HCV neg/HDV neg). Nadir CD4 < 200/mL was associated with SLRE (ASHR: 3.9, 95% 1.0-14.5).Conclusions: One-fifth of the HBsAg positive PLWH harbour HDV infection, and are at high risk of progression to advanced liver disease. HCV contributes to worse outcomes. This population needs urgently effective treatments

Role of low-frequency integrase strand transfer inhibitor resistance mutations on virological outcomes in antiretroviral therapy-naïve individuals initiating second-generation integrase inhibitors

Objectives: This study investigated the role of low-frequency integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) resistance mutations, detectable by next-generation sequencing (NGS), at predicting virological rebound (VR) among people with HIV (PWH) starting second-generation INSTI-based first-line regimens. Methods: This case-control study compared PWH (retrieved from the ICONA cohort; www.icona.org) who experienced VR (cases) with those who maintained virological control (controls) under first-line regimens based on dolutegravir or bictegravir. NGS data obtained through the Illumina platform were interpreted using the HIVdb algorithm version 9.7. Major (MRM), accessory (ARM), and other (ORM) INSTI resistance mutations were analysed at 5%, 10%, and 20% NGS cut-offs, respectively. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between INSTI resistance and risk of VR. Results: Among 266 PWH (90 cases, 176 controls), cases experienced VR with a median (interquartile range) viremia of 317 (93–6060) copies/mL after 15 (8–28) months from antiretroviral therapy start. The prevalence of MRM was low (NGS cut-off 5%, 10%, 20%: 1.9%, 0.8%, 0.4%, respectively), while it was moderate for ARM (7.5%, 7.1%, 6.4%) and high for ORM (50.0%, 44.7%, 42.1%). There was no evidence of a difference in prevalence of ≥1 MRM, ARM, or ORM between cases and controls. At 5% NGS cut-off, the prevalence of ≥2 ORM was higher in cases compared with controls. After adjusting for confounders, including HIV-1 subtype, ≥2 ORM detected as minority variants remained associated with VR risk. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that combinations of low-frequency ORM may increase the risk of VR in individuals starting dolutegravir or bictegravir-based regimens. Further studies are needed to better understand these findings

Risk of clinical events in virologically suppressed people with HIV switching to a two-drug regimen vs. remaining on a three-drug regimen: a target trial emulation

Background: Guidelines support the switch to a two-drug regimen (2DR) in virologically suppressed people with HIV (PWH) on a three-drug regimen (3DR). Randomized clinical trials have not included clinical outcomes in study endpoints. We provide estimates of 3-year clinical risk by means of a target trial emulation using the data of a large cohort of PWH in Italy. Methods: PWH from the Icona Foundation Study who were virologically suppressed (HIV-RNA ≤50 copies/mL) for ≥6 months on a 3DR on or after November 2014, were enrolled (database closure on July 31, 2024). PWH were classified according to therapeutic strategies: switching to 2DR (protease inhibitors or dolutegravir plus lamivudine or dolutegravir plus rilpivirine) or remaining on 3DR (any combination). The primary endpoint was the time to the first clinical composite event (cardiovascular disease [CVD], cancer [AIDS and non-AIDS related], or death). We calculated the difference in 3-year risk between therapeutic strategies, estimated using a weighted non-parametric Kaplan–Meier estimator. Findings: 7672 participants entered the analysis: 629 (8.2%) switching to 2DR and 7043 (91.8%) remaining on 3DR. Over the 3-year follow-up, 408 events were registered (64 CVD, 234 cancer, and 110 deaths). The 3-year adjusted risk estimate was 2.55 (95% CI 1.72, 5.33) in 2DR vs. 4.69 (95% CI 4.48, 6.17) in 3DR. The difference (−2.15% [95% CI −3.56%, −0.20%]) in favor of 2DR was mainly driven by events of non-AIDS related cancer and mortality. Interpretation: This study provides evidence that virologically suppressed PWH can be safely switched to 2DR, and may slightly reduce the 3-year risk of a composite clinical outcome. Funding: The Icona Foundation Study is supported by unrestricted grants from Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Merck Sharpe & Dohme

Determinants of worse liver‐related outcome according to HDV infection among HBsAg positive persons living with HIV: Data from the ICONA cohort

Objectives: We aimed to study hepatitis D virus (HDV) prevalence and risk of progression to severe liver-related events (SLRE) in HBsAg positive people living with HIV (PLWH) in Italy; role of HDV-RNA copy levels, HCV coinfection and nadir CD4 counts were also investigated.Methods: People living with HIV (PLWH) from Italian Foundation cohort Naive antiretrovirals (ICONA) with available HBsAg and HDV Ab were enrolled. HBsAg, HDV Ab, HDV-RNA and HDV genotypes were tested. Primary end-point: time from first HDV screening to Severe Liver Related Events (SLRE: decompensated cirrhosis, liver transplantation, HCC). Fine-grey regression models were used to evaluate the association of HDV Ab, HDV-RNA, HDV/HCV coinfection, CD4 nadir and outcome. Secondary end-points: time to SLRE or death; HDV Ab and HDV-RNA prevalence.Results: A total of 152/809 (18.8%) HBsAg positive PLWH showed HDV Ab reactivity; 63/93 (67.7%) were HDV-RNA positive. Being male, persons who inject drugs (PWID), HCV Ab positive, with FIB-4 > 3.25 were independent factors of HDV Ab positivity. In a median follow-up of 5 years, 37 PLWH (4.1% at 5-year) developed SLRE and 97 (12.0%) reached the SLRE or death end-point. HDV-RNA positive (independently from HDV-RNA copy level) PLWH had a 4.6-fold (95%CI 2.0-10.5) higher risk of SLRE than HDV negatives. PLWH positive for both HCV Ab and HDV Ab showed the highest independent risk of SLRE (ASHR: 11.9, 95%CI: 4.6-30.9 vs. HCV neg/HDV neg). Nadir CD4 < 200/mL was associated with SLRE (ASHR: 3.9, 95% 1.0-14.5).Conclusions: One-fifth of the HBsAg positive PLWH harbour HDV infection, and are at high risk of progression to advanced liver disease. HCV contributes to worse outcomes. This population needs urgently effective treatments