Agriculture and poverty in the Kentucky mountains: Beech Creek and Clay County, 1850-1910

The poverty of Appalachia is not the product of modernization. Nor is it a unique phenomenon. An examination of the history of farming in Beech Creek, Kentucky, reveals that this community, which was prosperous in 1860, owed its fall into poverty to a number of factors that had impoverished other regions: the high rate of population growth among the families living in the area, the division and re-division of the limited land to accommodate the new generations of families, the need to use woodland for agriculture before reforestation succeeded in restoring the old soil to its original productivity, and slow economic growth resulting from the emphasis on subsistence rather than commercial agriculture. The same pattern had occurred in New England in the eighteenth century. What was unique in Appalachia was that subsistence farming lasted so long, owing to growing isolation from the rest of the country as the area was bypassed in the construction of modern means of transportation.

Dynamical epidemic suppression using stochastic prediction and control

We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control. scheme that prevents large outbreaks from occurring. The theory inapplicable to a wide range of stochastic processes with underlying deterministic structure.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

Accurate Noise Projection for Reduced Stochastic Epidemic Models

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the associated, reduced set of stochastic evolution equations. The transformation correctly projects both the dynamics and the noise onto the center manifold. Therefore, the solution of this reduced stochastic dynamical system yields excellent agreement, both in amplitude and phase, with the solution of the original stochastic system for a temporal scale that is orders of magnitude longer than the typical relaxation time. This new method allows for improved time series prediction of the number of infectious cases when modeling the spread of disease in a population. Numerical solutions of the fluctuations of the SEIR model are considered in the infinite population limit using a Langevin equation approach, as well as in a finite population simulated as a Markov process.Comment: 38 pages, 10 figures, new title, Final revision to appear in Chao

Phase-space transport of stochastic chaos in population dynamics of virus spread

A general way to classify stochastic chaos is presented and applied to population dynamics models. A stochastic dynamical theory is used to develop an algorithmic tool to measure the transport across basin boundaries and predict the most probable regions of transport created by noise. The results of this tool are illustrated on a model of virus spread in a large population, where transport regions reveal how noise completes the necessary manifold intersections for the creation of emerging stochastic chaos

Switching barrier scaling near bifurcation points for non-Gaussian noise

We study noise-induced switching of a system close to bifurcation parameter values where the number of stable states changes. For non-Gaussian noise, the switching exponent, which gives the logarithm of the switching rate, displays a non-power-law dependence on the distance to the bifurcation point. This dependence is found for Poisson noise. Even weak additional Gaussian noise dominates switching sufficiently close to the bifurcation point, leading to a crossover in the behavior of the switching exponent

Distinct Contributions of Eroding and Depositional Profiles to Land-Atmosphere CO2 Exchange in Two Contrasting Forests

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Lateral movements of soil organic C (SOC) influence Earth's C budgets by transporting organic C across landscapes and by modifying soil-profile fluxes of CO2. We extended a previously presented model (Soil Organic C Erosion Replacement and Oxidation, SOrCERO) and present SOrCERODe, a model with which we can project how erosion and subsequent deposition of eroded material can modify biosphere-atmosphere CO2 fluxes in watersheds. The model permits the user to quantify the degree to which eroding and depositional profiles experience a change in SOC oxidation and production as formerly deep horizons become increasingly shallow, and as depositional profiles are buried. To investigate the relative importance of erosion rate, evolving SOC depth distributions, and mineralization reactivity on modeled soil C fluxes, we examine two forests exhibiting distinct depth distributions of SOC content and reactivity, hydrologic regimes and land use. Model projections suggest that, at decadal to centennial timescales: (1) the quantity of SOC moving across a landscape depends on erosion rate and the degree to which SOC production and oxidation at the eroding profile are modified as deeper horizons become shallower, and determines the degree to which depositional profile SOC fluxes are modified; (2) erosional setting C sink strength increases with erosion rate, with some sink effects reaching more than 40% of original profile SOC content after 100 y of a relatively high erosion rate (i.e., 1 mm y−1); (3) even large amounts of deposited SOC may not promote a large depositional profile C sink even with large gains in autochthonous SOC post-deposition if oxidation of buried SOC is not limited; and (4) when modeled depositional settings receive a disproportionately large amount of SOC, simulations of strong C sink scenarios mimic observations of modest preservation of buried SOC and large SOC gains in surficial horizons, suggesting that C sink scenarios have merit in these forests. Our analyses illuminate the importance of cross-landscape linkages between upland and depositional environments for watershed-scale biosphere-atmosphere C fluxes, and emphasize the need for accurate representations and observations of time-varying depth distributions of SOC reactivity across evolving watersheds if we seek accurate projections of ecosystem C balances

Critical Race Theory and Education: racism and anti-racism in educational theory and praxis

What is Critical Race Theory (CRT) and what does it offer educational researchers and practitioners outside the US? This paper addresses these questions by examining the recent history of antiracist research and policy in the UK. In particular, the paper argues that conventional forms of antiracism have proven unable to keep pace with the development of increasingly racist and exclusionary education polices that operate beneath a veneer of professed tolerance and diversity. In particular, contemporary antiracism lacks clear statements of principle and theory that risk reinventing the wheel with each new study; it is increasingly reduced to a meaningless slogan; and it risks appropriation within a reformist “can do” perspective dominated by the de-politicized and managerialist language of school effectiveness and improvement. In contrast, CRT offers a genuinely radical and coherent set of approaches that could revitalize critical research in education across a range of inquiries, not only in self-consciously "multicultural" studies. The paper reviews the developing terrain of CRT in education, identifying its key defining elements and the conceptual tools that characterise the work. CRT in education is a fast changing and incomplete project but it can no longer be ignored by the academy beyond North America