Probabilistic (logic) programming concepts

A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today, all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution mechanisms that they require and use these to position and survey state-of-the-art probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which have been considered for over 20 years

Using dissolved H₂O in rhyolitic glasses to estimate palaeo-ice thickness during a subglacial eruption at Bláhnúkur(Torfajökull, Iceland)

The last decade has seen the refinement of a technique for reconstructing palaeo-ice thicknesses based on using the retained H2O and CO2 content in glassy eruptive deposits to infer quenching pressures and therefore ice thicknesses. The method is here applied to Bláhnúkur, a subglacially erupted rhyolitic edifice in Iceland. A decrease in water content from ~0.7 wt.% at the base to ~0.3 wt.% at the top of the edifice suggests that the ice was 400 m thick at the time of the eruption. As Bláhnúkur rises 350 m above the surrounding terrain, this implies that the eruption occurred entirely within ice, which corroborates evidence obtained from earlier lithofacies studies. This paper presents the largest data set (40 samples) so far obtained for the retained volatile contents of deposits from a subglacial eruption. An important consequence is that it enables subtle but significant variations in water content to become evident. In particular, there are anomalous samples which are either water-rich (up to 1 wt.%) or water-poor (~0.2 wt.%), with the former being interpreted as forming intrusively within hyaloclastite and the latter representing batches of magma that were volatile-poor prior to eruption. The large data set also provides further insights into the strengths and weaknesses of using volatiles to infer palaeo-ice thicknesses and highlights many of the uncertainties involved. By using examples from Bláhnúkur, the quantitative use of this technique is evaluated. However, the relative pressure conditions which have shed light on Bláhnúkur’s eruption mechanisms and syn-eruptive glacier response show that, despite uncertainties in absolute values, the volatile approach can provide useful insight into the mechanisms of subglacial rhyolitic eruptions, which have never been observed

mtDNA nt13708A variant increases the risk of multiple sclerosis

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) polymorphism is a possible factor contributing to the maternal parent-of-origin effect in multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility. = 0.0002). Subsequent sequencing of the mtDNA of 50 individuals revealed that the nt13708 itself, rather than SNPs linked to it, was responsible for the association. However, the association of nt13708 G/A with MS was not significant in MS cohorts which were not well case-control matched, indicating that the significance of association was affected by the population structure of controls.Taken together, our finding identified the nt13708A variant as a susceptibility allele to MS, which could contribute to defining the role of the mitochondrial genome in MS pathogenesis