Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities

Commodity markets display substantial volatility both in prices and in the quantities traded. This has led to the development of different instruments designed to address this volatility. Processors and traders, who are actively involved in the international market, participate in these commodity markets using cross-hedging strategies by their export and domestic supply decisions. Spot and future prices, as well as the cross-hedging strategies, affect export and the domestic supply decisions. Understanding this complex interaction calls for further and newer insights and this research contributes to this. The primary objective of Chapter 1 of this thesis is to develop a model which explains the export and domestic supply decisions when traders, producers and speculators participate in a futures market for a primary commodity, which can be stored and for which future markets operate. As a result, exports and domestic supply are affected by the prices of the primary product, and jointly by the prices in the external and domestic market. Chapter 2 provides the historical, political and economic context of the Argentine economy and the agricultural sector, specifically on the three agricultural commodities used in the empirical part of this research. In Chapter 3, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal unit roots of monthly series of exports and domestic supply, using time series that include zero values. In the past, this technique has mostly been applied to quarterly data but never to monthly series that display periods of inactivity. The results indicate that, in general, the seasonality observed in the series analysed can be sufficiently explained by a deterministic approach. The estimation and further analysis of the supply equations derived in Chapter 1 are undertaken in Chapter 4. A comprehensive analysis of seasonal cointegration using monthly data was conducted but, in light of the results obtained in Chapter 3, only the Engle-Granger cointegration is applied. The results indicate weak cointegration relationships. This may indicate the need for improved data and/or alternative econometric techniques

Proper motions of Local Group dwarf spheroidal galaxies I: First ground-based results for Fornax

In this paper we present in detail the methodology and the first results of a ground-based program to determine the absolute proper motion of the Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The proper motion was determined using bona-fide Fornax star members measured with respect to a fiducial at-rest background spectroscopically confirmed Quasar, \qso. Our homogeneous measurements, based on this one Quasar gives a value of (\mua,\mud)$= (0.64 \pm 0.08, -0.01 \pm 0.11)$ \masy. There are only two other (astrometric) determinations for the transverse motion of Fornax: one based on a combination of plates and HST data, and another (of higher internal precision) based on HST data. We show that our proper motion errors are similar to those derived from HST measurements on individual QSOs. We provide evidence that, as far as we can determine it, our motion is not affected by magnitude, color, or other potential systematic effects. Last epoch measurements and reductions are underway for other four Quasar fields of this galaxy, which, when combined, should yield proper motions with a weighted mean error of $\sim50\,\mu$as y$^{-1}$, allowing us to place important constraints on the orbit of Fornax.Comment: Accepted for publication in Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, PASP. To appear in July issue. 64 pages, 18 figure

Diseño de los sistemas de apantallamiento, puesta a tierra y cámara de transformación del Centro de Salud N°1 “Centro Histórico” del Ministerio de Salud Pública.

El presente documento trata sobre el estudio técnico del estado actual de las instalaciones eléctricas del centro de salud N.º 1 “Centro Histórico” ubicado en la ciudad de Quito provincia de Pichincha; junto con el diseño de los sistemas de puesta a tierra basado en la norma IEEE 80 2013, el sistema de apantallamiento basado en la norma IEC 62305 y el diseño de la parte civil de la cámara de transformación basado en la norma de la empresa eléctrica Quito. El estudio se realiza debido a varios inconvenientes que se ha presentado en los últimos años en el sistema eléctrico los cuales han desencadenado averías de equipos electrónicos de computación. Tras la realización del estudio técnico se constató el estado actual del sistema eléctrico y se analizó la demanda del mismo con lo que se pudo concluir que requería de un diseño de los sistemas de puesta a tierra, apantallamiento y la reubicación de la cámara de transformación junto con una mejor distribución de carga a las líneas del transformador. Los diseños pretenden brindar una solución con una posible futura implementación con el objetivo de mejorar el sistema eléctrico del centro de salud.This document deals with the technical study of the current state of the electrical installations of the health center No. 1 "Centro Histórico" located in the city of Quito, province of Pichincha; together with the design of the grounding systems based on the IEEE 80 2013 standard, the shielding system based on the IEC 62305 standard and the design of the civil part of the transformation chamber based on the standard of the Quito electric company. The study is carried out due to several problems that have occurred in recent years in the electrical system which have triggered failures of electronic computer equipment. After conducting the technical study, the current state of the electrical system was verified and its demand was analyzed, which led to the conclusion that it required a design of the grounding and shielding systems and the relocation of the transformation chamber, together with a better load distribution to the transformer lines. The designs are intended to provide a solution with a possible future implementation with the objective of improving the electrical system of the health center

Order batching and order picking with 3D positioning of the articles: solution through a hybrid evolutionary algorithm

Fil: Miguel Fabio M.. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Río Negro, ArgentinaFil: Frutos Mariano. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ingeniería, IIESS UNS CONICET. Bahía Blanca, ArgentinaFil: Méndez Máximo. Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (ULPGC). Instituto Universitario SIANI. Las Palmas, EspañaFil: Tohmé Fernando. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía, INMABB UNS CONICET. Bahía Blanca, ArgentinaA critical factor in the logistic management of firms is the degree of efficiency of the operations in distribution centers. Of particular interest is the pick-up process, since it is the costliest operation, amounting to 50 and up to 75% of the total cost of the activities in storage facilities. In this paper we jointly address the order batching problem (OBP) and the order picking problem (OPP). The former problem amounts to find optimal batches of goods to be picked up, by restructuring incoming orders by either splitting up large orders or combining small orders into larger ones that can then be picked in a single picking tour. The OPP, in turn, involves identifying optimal sequences of visits to the storage positions in which the goods to be included in each batch are stored. We seek to design a plan that minimizes the total operational cost of the pick-up process, proportional to the displacement times around the storage area as well as to all the time spent in pick-ups and finishing up orders to be punctually delivered. Earliness or tardiness will induce inefficiency costs, be it because of the excessive use of space or breaches of contracts with customers. Tsai, Liou and Huang in 2008 have generated 2D and 3D instances. In previous works we have addressed the 2D ones, achieving very good results. Here we focus on 3D instances (the articles are placed at different levels in the storage center), which involve a higher complexity. This contributes to improve the performance of the hybrid evolutionary algorithm (HEA) applied in our previous works.A critical factor in the logistic management of firms is the degree of efficiency of the operations in distribution centers. Of particular interest is the pick-up process, since it is the costliest operation, amounting to 50 and up to 75% of the total cost of the activities in storage facilities. In this paper we jointly address the order batching problem (OBP) and the order picking problem (OPP). The former problem amounts to find optimal batches of goods to be picked up, by restructuring incoming orders by either splitting up large orders or combining small orders into larger ones that can then be picked in a single picking tour. The OPP, in turn, involves identifying optimal sequences of visits to the storage positions in which the goods to be included in each batch are stored. We seek to design a plan that minimizes the total operational cost of the pick-up process, proportional to the displacement times around the storage area as well as to all the time spent in pick-ups and finishing up orders to be punctually delivered. Earliness or tardiness will induce inefficiency costs, be it because of the excessive use of space or breaches of contracts with customers. Tsai, Liou and Huang in 2008 have generated 2D and 3D instances. In previous works we have addressed the 2D ones, achieving very good results. Here we focus on 3D instances (the articles are placed at different levels in the storage center), which involve a higher complexity. This contributes to improve the performance of the hybrid evolutionary algorithm (HEA) applied in our previous works

The proper motion of the Magellanic Clouds, I: first results and description of the program

We present the first results of a ground-based program to determine the proper motion of the Magellanic Clouds (MCs) relative to background quasars (QSO), being carried out using the Iréneé du Pont 2.5 m telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile. Eleven QSO fields have been targeted in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) over a time base of six years, and with seven epochs of observation. One quasar field was targeted in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), over a time base of five years, and with six epochs of observation. The shorter time base in the case of the LMC is compensated by the much larger amount of high-quality astrometry frames that could be secured for the LMC quasar field (124 frames), compared to the SMC fields (an average of roughly 45 frames). In this paper, we present final results for field Q0557-6713 in the LMC and field Q0036-7227 in the SMC. From field Q0557-6713, we have obtained a measured proper motion of μαcos δ = +1.95 ± 0.13 mas yr-1, μδ = +0.43 ± 0.18 mas yr-1 for the LMC. From field Q0036-7227, we have obtained a measured proper motion of μα cosδ = +0.95 ± 0.29 mas yr-1, μδ = -1.14 ± 0.18 mas yr-1 for the SMC. Although we went through the full procedure for another SMC field (QJ0036-7225), on account of unsolvable astrometric difficulties caused by blending of the QSO image, it was impossible to derive a reliable proper motion. Current model rotation curves for the plane of the LMC indicate that the rotational velocity (V rot) at the position of LMC field Q0557-6713 can be as low as 50 km s-1, or as high as 120 km s-1. A correction for perspective and rotation effects leads to a center of mass proper motion for the LMC of μα cosδ = +1.82 ± 0.13 mas yr-1, μδ = +0.39 ± 0.15 mas yr-1 (V rot = 50 km s-1), and to μα cosδ = +1.61 ± 0.13 mas yr-1, μδ = +0.60 ± 0.15 mas yr-1 (V rot = 120 km s-1). Assuming that the SMC has a disk-like central structure, but that it does not rotate, we obtain a center of mass proper motion for the SMC of μα cosδ = +1.03 ± 0.29 mas yr-1, μδ = -1.09 ± 0.18 mas yr-1. Our results are in reasonable agreement with most previous determinations of the proper motion of the MCs, including recent Hubble Space Telescope measurements. Complemented with published values of the radial velocity of the centers of the LMC and SMC, we have used our proper motions to derive the galactocentric (gc) velocity components of the MCs. For the LMC, we obtain V gc,t = +315 ± 20 km s-1, V gc,r = +86 ± 17 km s-1 (V rot = 50 km s-1), and V gc,t = +280 ± 24 km s-1, V gc,r = +94 ± 17 km s-1 (V rot = 120 km s-1). For the SMC, we obtain V gc,t = +258 ± 50 km s-1, V gc,r = +20 ± 44 km s-1. These velocities imply a relative velocity between the LMC and SMC of 84 ± 50 km s-1, for V rot,LMC = 50 km s-1, and 62 ± 63 km s-1 for V rot,LMC = 120 km s-1. Albeit our large errors, these values are not inconsistent with the standard assumption that the MCs are gravitationally bound to each other.Fil: Costa, Edgardo. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Méndez, René A.. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Pedreros, Mario H.. Universidad de Tarapaca; ChileFil: Moyano, Maximiliano. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Gallart, Carme. Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias; EspañaFil: Noël, Noelia. Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias; EspañaFil: Baume, Gustavo Luis. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Carraro, Giovanni. European Southern Observatory; Chil

Topsis decision on approximate pareto fronts by using evolutionary algorithms: Application to an engineering design problem

A common technique used to solve multi-objective optimization problems consists of first generating the set of all Pareto-optimal solutions and then ranking and/or choosing the most interesting solution for a human decision maker (DM). Sometimes this technique is referred to as generate first–choose later. In this context, this paper proposes a two-stage methodology: a first stage using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) to generate an approximate Pareto-optimal front of non-dominated solutions and a second stage, which uses the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) devoted to rank the potential solutions to be proposed to the DM. The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that it is not necessary to know the ideal and nadir solutions of the problem in the TOPSIS method in order to determine the ranking of solutions. To show the utility of the proposed methodology, several original experiments and comparisons between different recognized MOEAs were carried out on a welded beam engineering design benchmark problem. The problem was solved with two and three objectives and it is characterized by a lack of knowledge about ideal and nadir values.Fil: Méndez Babey, Máximo. Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria; EspañaFil: Frutos, Mariano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Miguel, Fabio Maximiliano. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; ArgentinaFil: Aguasca Colomo, Ricardo. Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria; Españ

La convergencia política: el rol de las redes sociales en la política argentina (2015-2016)

En 2015 se llevaron a cabo las primeras elecciones en las que las redes sociales tuvieron un rol protagónico en la construcción del discurso e imagen de los principales candidatos políticos, porque si bien Facebook y Twitter se habían utilizado en 2011 y 2013 como soporte de las campañas tradicionales, en las pasadas elecciones el eje de las mismas estuvo centrado en nuevas formas de participación política con las redes como epicentro, aprovechando que en Internet “ahora predomina una web de flujos, mucho más dinámica. Cada página es un contenedor alimentado por múltiples fuentes y usuarios. Hay diálogos, intercambios, interacción constante, comentarios, contenidos aportados por los propios usuarios. Las redes sociales particularmente son el ejemplo de ello. Es una web para ser escrita, no sólo para ser leída”. (Rost, 2011:103) y esta web participativa en la que los usuarios son cada vez más productores y no meros consumidores es el espacio en el que, como en otros ámbitos de la vida cotidiana, la política encuentra un espacio virtual hacia el que se traslada gran parte de las campañas.Eje 15. Convergencia y nuevas tecnologíasFacultad de Periodismo y Comunicación Socia

La convergencia política: el rol de las redes sociales en la política argentina (2015-2016)

En 2015 se llevaron a cabo las primeras elecciones en las que las redes sociales tuvieron un rol protagónico en la construcción del discurso e imagen de los principales candidatos políticos, porque si bien Facebook y Twitter se habían utilizado en 2011 y 2013 como soporte de las campañas tradicionales, en las pasadas elecciones el eje de las mismas estuvo centrado en nuevas formas de participación política con las redes como epicentro, aprovechando que en Internet “ahora predomina una web de flujos, mucho más dinámica. Cada página es un contenedor alimentado por múltiples fuentes y usuarios. Hay diálogos, intercambios, interacción constante, comentarios, contenidos aportados por los propios usuarios. Las redes sociales particularmente son el ejemplo de ello. Es una web para ser escrita, no sólo para ser leída”. (Rost, 2011:103) y esta web participativa en la que los usuarios son cada vez más productores y no meros consumidores es el espacio en el que, como en otros ámbitos de la vida cotidiana, la política encuentra un espacio virtual hacia el que se traslada gran parte de las campañas.Eje 15. Convergencia y nuevas tecnologíasFacultad de Periodismo y Comunicación Socia

La convergencia política: el rol de las redes sociales en la política argentina (2015-2016)

En 2015 se llevaron a cabo las primeras elecciones en las que las redes sociales tuvieron un rol protagónico en la construcción del discurso e imagen de los principales candidatos políticos, porque si bien Facebook y Twitter se habían utilizado en 2011 y 2013 como soporte de las campañas tradicionales, en las pasadas elecciones el eje de las mismas estuvo centrado en nuevas formas de participación política con las redes como epicentro, aprovechando que en Internet “ahora predomina una web de flujos, mucho más dinámica. Cada página es un contenedor alimentado por múltiples fuentes y usuarios. Hay diálogos, intercambios, interacción constante, comentarios, contenidos aportados por los propios usuarios. Las redes sociales particularmente son el ejemplo de ello. Es una web para ser escrita, no sólo para ser leída”. (Rost, 2011:103) y esta web participativa en la que los usuarios son cada vez más productores y no meros consumidores es el espacio en el que, como en otros ámbitos de la vida cotidiana, la política encuentra un espacio virtual hacia el que se traslada gran parte de las campañas.Eje 15. Convergencia y nuevas tecnologíasFacultad de Periodismo y Comunicación Socia