Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties

We analyze the Brazilian experience in the 1990s to assess the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows in restricting financial inflows and changing their composition towards long term flows. Econometric exercises (VARs) showed that controls on capital inflows were effective in deterring financial inflows for only a brief period, from two to six months. The hypothesis to explain the ineffectiveness of the controls is that financial institutions performed several operations aimed at avoiding capital controls. To check this hypothesis, we conducted interviews with market players. We collected several examples of the financial strategies engineered to avoid the capital controls and invest in the Brazilian fixed income market. The main conclusion is that controls on capital inflows, while they may be desirable, are of very limited effectiveness under sophisticated financial markets.

Política monetária e cambial: algumas lições do período 1991-1994

O sucesso do Piano Real em manter a inflação baixa nos próximos anos depende da obtenção de reduzidas taxas de expansão monetária. Para tanto, e necessário não só eliminar o financiamento inflacionário do deficit fiscal, como tambem a passividade da moeda, que foi o combustível da inflaçãoo nos anos recentes. A passividade da moeda dosúltimos anos adveio do mecanismo operacional do BACEN, que praticava uma regra de taxa de juros cujo objetivo não era o de reduzir significativamente a inflação, mas o de manter uma demanda estável peladívida pública. Sugerem-se as seguintes medidas: prosseguir a reforma da relação entre Tesouro e o BACEN, para impedir o financiamento inflacionário do deficit público; permitir que o BACEN exerga suasfunções de regulação e supervisão sobre os Bancos Estaduais e mudar o mecanismo operacional do BACEN, eliminando a zerada automática e impondo gradativamente maiores custos de iliquidez aos bancos.The success of the current Brazilian stabilization plan in maintaining low inflation in the coming years depends on reduced rates ofmonetary expansion. It is necessary not just to eliminate the inflationary financing of the fiscal deficit but also to eliminate the passiveness ofmonetary policy, which has fueled inflation recently. In the past the Central Bank (CB) has followed a real interest rate target procedure, aiming not at low inflation, but at maintaining a stable demand for public debt. Monetary expansion has been allowed to occur passively in support of this objective. Several monetary policy recommendations are outlined to support the Real Plan, among those: fully separate the CB from the treasury to impede inflationary financing; give the CB autonomy to exercise true supervision and regulation in the government owned banks; change the operating mechanism of the CB, gradually imposing greater illiquidity costs on the banks

Private international capital flows to Brazil

Includes bibliograph

Do government guarantees really matter in fixed exchange rate regimes?

Since the mid 1990s, theories of speculative attacks have argued that fixed exchange rate regimes induce excessive borrowing in foreign currency as an optimal response to implicit guarantees that the government will not devalue the domestic currency. Using data on Brazilian firms before and after the end of the fixed exchange rate regime in 1999, we estimate the relevance of the government guarantees by comparing the changes in foreign debt of two groups of firms: those that hedged their foreign currency debt prior to the exchange rate float and those that did not. Using the difference-in-differences approach, in which firm-specific characteristics are introduced as control variables, we exclude the macroeconomic effects of the change in the exchange rate regime and the possible differences in foreign debt trends of the two groups of firms, thus obtaining an estimate of the impact of the government guarantees on borrowing in foreign currency. The results suggest that the guarantees do not induce excessive borrowing in foreign currency. JEL classifications: F31, F34, G15, G18, Keywords: Foreign exchange risk, Government guarantees, Exchange rate regime, Hedgin

Balance sheet effects in currency crises: Evidence from Brazil

In third generation currency crises models, balance sheet losses from currency depreciations propagate the crises into the real sector of the economy. To test these models, we built a firm-level database that allowed us to measure currency mismatches around the 2002 Brazilian currency crisis. We found that between 2001 and 2003, firms with large currency mismatches just before the crisis reduced their investment rates 8.1 percentage points more than other publicly held firms. We also showed that the currency depreciation increased exporters revenue, but those with currency mismatches reduced investments 12.5 percentage points more than other exporters. These estimated reductions in investment are economically very significant, underscoring the importance of negative balance sheet effects in currency crises

Brazilian Flora 2020: Leveraging the power of a collaborative scientific network

International audienceThe shortage of reliable primary taxonomic data limits the description of biological taxa and the understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes, complicating biogeographical, ecological, and evolutionary studies. This deficit creates a significant taxonomic impediment to biodiversity research and conservation planning. The taxonomic impediment and the biodiversity crisis are widely recognized, highlighting the urgent need for reliable taxonomic data. Over the past decade, numerous countries worldwide have devoted considerable effort to Target 1 of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC), which called for the preparation of a working list of all known plant species by 2010 and an online world Flora by 2020. Brazil is a megadiverse country, home to more of the world's known plant species than any other country. Despite that, Flora Brasiliensis, concluded in 1906, was the last comprehensive treatment of the Brazilian flora. The lack of accurate estimates of the number of species of algae, fungi, and plants occurring in Brazil contributes to the prevailing taxonomic impediment and delays progress towards the GSPC targets. Over the past 12 years, a legion of taxonomists motivated to meet Target 1 of the GSPC, worked together to gather and integrate knowledge on the algal, plant, and fungal diversity of Brazil. Overall, a team of about 980 taxonomists joined efforts in a highly collaborative project that used cybertaxonomy to prepare an updated Flora of Brazil, showing the power of scientific collaboration to reach ambitious goals. This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian Flora 2020 and provides taxonomic and spatial updates on the algae, fungi, and plants found in one of the world's most biodiverse countries. We further identify collection gaps and summarize future goals that extend beyond 2020. Our results show that Brazil is home to 46,975 native species of algae, fungi, and plants, of which 19,669 are endemic to the country. The data compiled to date suggests that the Atlantic Rainforest might be the most diverse Brazilian domain for all plant groups except gymnosperms, which are most diverse in the Amazon. However, scientific knowledge of Brazilian diversity is still unequally distributed, with the Atlantic Rainforest and the Cerrado being the most intensively sampled and studied biomes in the country. In times of “scientific reductionism”, with botanical and mycological sciences suffering pervasive depreciation in recent decades, the first online Flora of Brazil 2020 significantly enhanced the quality and quantity of taxonomic data available for algae, fungi, and plants from Brazil. This project also made all the information freely available online, providing a firm foundation for future research and for the management, conservation, and sustainable use of the Brazilian funga and flora