Dynamics and kinematics of eruptive activity at Fuego volcano, Guatemala 2005-2009

Volcanoes are the surficial expressions of complex pathways that vent magma and gasses generated deep in the Earth. Geophysical data record at least the partial history of magma and gas movement in the conduit and venting to the atmosphere. This work focuses on developing a more comprehensive understanding of explosive degassing at Fuego volcano, Guatemala through observations and analysis of geophysical data collected in 2005 – 2009. A pattern of eruptive activity was observed during 2005 – 2007 and quantified with seismic and infrasound, satellite thermal and gas measurements, and lava flow lengths. Eruptive styles are related to variable magma flux and accumulation of gas. Explosive degassing was recorded on broadband seismic and infrasound sensors in 2008 and 2009. Explosion energy partitioning between the ground and the atmosphere shows an increase in acoustic energy from 2008 to 2009, indicating a shift toward increased gas pressure in the conduit. Very-long-period (VLP) seismic signals are associated with the strongest explosions recorded in 2009 and waveform modeling in the 10 – 30 s band produces a best-fit source location 300 m west and 300 m below the summit crater. The calculated moment tensor indicates a volumetric source, which is modeled as a dike feeding a SW-dipping (35°) sill. The sill is the dominant component and its projection to the surface nearly intersects the summit crater. The deformation history of the sill is interpreted as: 1) an initial inflation due to pressurization, followed by 2) a rapid deflation as overpressure is explosively release, and finally 3) a reinflation as fresh magma flows into the sill and degasses. Tilt signals are derived from the horizontal components of the seismometer and show repetitive inflation deflation cycles with a 20 minute period coincident with strong explosions. These cycles represent the pressurization of the shallow conduit and explosive venting of overpressure that develops beneath a partially crystallized plug of magma. The energy released during the strong explosions has allowed for imaging of Fuego’s shallow conduit, which appears to have migrated west of the summit crater. In summary, Fuego is becoming more gas charged and its summit centered vent is shifting to the west - serious hazard consequences are likely

High quality optically polished aluminum mirror and process for producing

A new technical advancement in the field of precision aluminum optics permits high quality optical polishing of aluminum monolith, which, in the field of optics, offers numerous benefits because of its machinability, lightweight, and low cost. This invention combines diamond turning and conventional polishing along with india ink, a newly adopted material, for the polishing to accomplish a significant improvement in surface precision of aluminum monolith for optical purposes. This invention guarantees the precise optical polishing of typical bare aluminum monolith to surface roughness of less than about 30 angstroms rms and preferably about 5 angstroms rms while maintaining a surface figure accuracy in terms of surface figure error of not more than one-fifteenth of wave peak-to-valley

Detecting early signs of depressive and manic episodes in patients with bipolar disorder using the signature-based model

Recurrent major mood episodes and subsyndromal mood instability cause substantial disability in patients with bipolar disorder. Early identification of mood episodes enabling timely mood stabilisation is an important clinical goal. Recent technological advances allow the prospective reporting of mood in real time enabling more accurate, efficient data capture. The complex nature of these data streams in combination with challenge of deriving meaning from missing data mean pose a significant analytic challenge. The signature method is derived from stochastic analysis and has the ability to capture important properties of complex ordered time series data. To explore whether the onset of episodes of mania and depression can be identified using self-reported mood data.Comment: 12 pages, 3 tables, 10 figure

An Overview of Space Power Systems for NASA Missions

Power is a critical commodity for all engineering efforts and is especially challenging in the aerospace field. This paper will provide a broad brush overview of some of the immediate and important challenges to NASA missions in the field of aerospace power, for generation, energy conversion, distribution, and storage. NASA s newest vehicles which are currently in the design phase will have power systems that will be developed from current technology, but will have the challenges of being light-weight, energy-efficient, and space-qualified. Future lunar and Mars "outposts" will need high power generation units for life support and energy-intensive exploration efforts. An overview of the progress in concepts for power systems and the status of the required technologies are discussed

Singularity analysis: a tool for extracting lithologic and stratigraphic content from seismic data

In this work, we test an amplitude-independent method of seisimic data analysis designed to extract lithologic information about stratigraphic horizons. We apply the method of singularity characterization in an attempt to determine the sharpness of lithologic boundaries. We infer the sharpness of the boundary based upon a fractional integration of the seismic trace. The order of fractional integration is taken to represent the abruptness of the lithologic transition responsible for a given reflector. We find that the method output behaves in a geologically reasonable manner which suggests that our method is responding to lithologic variations along boundaries responsible for prominent reflectors in the data

Comparing Climate Change and Species Invasions as Drivers of Coldwater Fish Population Extirpations

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25–70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change

OCC and FRBNY Letter from John C Lyons and John Ruocco to David Bushnell Re Operational Risk Management

This letter is addressed to David Bushnel

Modelling Long Term Disability following Injury: Comparison of Three Approaches for Handling Multiple Injuries

BACKGROUND: Injury is a leading cause of the global burden of disease (GBD). Estimates of non-fatal injury burden have been limited by a paucity of empirical outcomes data. This study aimed to (i) establish the 12-month disability associated with each GBD 2010 injury health state, and (ii) compare approaches to modelling the impact of multiple injury health states on disability as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale - Extended (GOS-E). METHODS: 12-month functional outcomes for 11,337 survivors to hospital discharge were drawn from the Victorian State Trauma Registry and the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. ICD-10 diagnosis codes were mapped to the GBD 2010 injury health states. Cases with a GOS-E score >6 were defined as "recovered." A split dataset approach was used. Cases were randomly assigned to development or test datasets. Probability of recovery for each health state was calculated using the development dataset. Three logistic regression models were evaluated: a) additive, multivariable; b) "worst injury;" and c) multiplicative. Models were adjusted for age and comorbidity and investigated for discrimination and calibration. FINDINGS: A single injury health state was recorded for 46% of cases (1-16 health states per case). The additive (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.71) and "worst injury" (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) models demonstrated higher discrimination than the multiplicative (C-statistic 0.68; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.70) model. The additive and "worst injury" models demonstrated acceptable calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients survived with persisting disability at 12-months, highlighting the importance of improving estimates of non-fatal injury burden. Additive and "worst" injury models performed similarly. GBD 2010 injury states were moderately predictive of recovery 1-year post-injury. Further evaluation using additional measures of health status and functioning and comparison with the GBD 2010 disability weights will be needed to optimise injury states for future GBD studies

Water Equity and Security in Detroit's Water and Sewer District

Ensuring access to drinking water and wastewater service is a nationwide policy challenge. Across the United States access is increasingly insecure for many people and places. In this report we comply with scholarship and legal precedent that defines access to include access to residential in-home service, quality service that serves environmental and personal health,and affordable service.Water security is a term in this report used to describe the presence of structural, systemic, and institutional arrangements that ensure everyone has consistent access to drinking water and wastewater services. Water insecurity looks different in the humid east than in the arid west, different in the Midwest from the South, different between urban, suburban, or rural.However different water insecurity problems look at the local level, they are the result of similar institutional, systemic, and structural problems. This is a study of the what persistent water insecurity looks like in the service area of Detroit's drinking and wastewater system (DWSD) and specific places within that system, notably Detroit