Comparison of Trend Detection Methods

Trend estimation is important in many fields, though arguably the most important applications appear in ecology. Trend is difficult to quantify; in fact, the term itself is not well-defined. Often, trend is quantified by estimating the slope coefficient in a regression model where the response variable is an index of population size, and time is the explanatory variable. Linear trend is often unrealistic for biological populations; in fact, many critical environmental changes occur abruptly as a result of very rapid changes in human activities. My PhD research has involved formulating methods with greater flexibility than those currently in use. Penalized spline regression provides a flexible technique for fitting a smooth curve. This method has proven useful in many areas including environmental monitoring; however, inference is more difficult than with ordinary linear regression because so many parameters are estimated. My research has focused on developing methods of trend detection and comparing these methods to other methods currently in use. Attention is given to comparing estimated Type I error rates and power across several trend detection methods. This was accomplished through an extensive simulation study. Monte Carlo simulations and randomization tests were employed to construct an empirical sampling distribution for the test statistic under the null hypothesis of no trend. These methods are superior over smoothing methods over other smoothing methods of trend detection with respect to achieving the designated Type I error rate. The likelihood ratio test using a mixed effects model had the most power for detecting linear trend while a test involving the first derivative was the most powerful for detecting nonlinear trend for small sample sizes

How technology interacts with emerging adulthood psychosocial developmental tasks: An examination of online self-presentation and cell phone usage

This dissertation outlines three distinct, yet interrelated, projects aimed at understanding the role of technology in relation to emerging adulthood developmental tasks: individuation & identity development. The first paper provides a context for understanding the developmental tasks of emerging adulthood, and the role that technology may serve in relation to those developmental tasks. This brief review of the literature on emerging adulthood developmental tasks provides a solid theoretical background and history for the theoretical premises proposed for the respective studies included in this dissertation. The second project is an empirical investigation that seeks to understand how the task of identity development may be related to online self-presentation, indicated by rates of profile picture cycling. The third project is a second empirical investigation that seeks to understand how the developmental task of individuation may be related to cell phone communication with parents. Final comments and integrated thoughts are provided to clarify the parallels between what we already know about emerging adulthood tasks, and how these tasks are being manifested via social media outlets and cell phone usage

#Trending Now: Why black folk need to be in psychotherapy

Despite evidence that mental health problems (ranging from very mild to severe) affect all people, the rates of minorities engaged in personal psychotherapy have remained low throughout the past few decades. Historically, minorities have tended to devalue the importance of mental health, and stigmatize therapeutic interventions. This session will focus on why we need to shed the stigma surrounding mental health issues, and detail where we’ve been, where we are, and where we need to head in term of opening ourselves to self-exploration within the realm of psychotherapy. Also learn about how our physical health is intertwined with our mental health; thus, we cannot be holistically healthy without caring for both. If you’re human, you need to sit in on this session

Institutional development work in the World Bank : a review of 84 bank projects

Institutional weakness is a critical constraint to economic development. The goal of this paper is to review the design of recent Bank projects to assess the quality of their institutional development (ID) components and the factors that may affect that quality. A major focus is Bank staffing and organization, and the following issues are addressed: (a) the quality of institutional analysis and ID components in the design of current Bank project; (b) the ID work that is being done in Bank projects; (c) qualifications needed for effective ID work; (d) the impact the Bank's organizational structure has on ID work; and (e) suggestions that can be made to broaden and strengthen the ID work in Bank projects.Banks&Banking Reform,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Economics&Finance,Municipal Financial Management,Rural Portfolio Improvement

Examples of Best Practice in Program Assessment

This session will introduce basic principles of program assessment and its importance. It will include examples and testimonies from two department chairs who have been intentional in the development of learning outcomes for their academic programs, and in determining how their curriculum meets the program learning outcomes

Insensitivity of Paediatric HIV-1 Subtype C Viruses to Broadly Neutralising Monoclonal Antibodies Raised against Subtype B

BACKGROUND: A Phase I clinical trial has been proposed that uses neutralising monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) as passive immunoprophylaxis to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in South Africa. To assess the suitability of such an approach, we determined the sensitivity of paediatric HIV-1 subtype C viruses to the broadly neutralising MAbs IgG1b12, 2G12, 2F5, and 4E10. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The gp160 envelope genes from seven children with HIV-1 subtype C infection were cloned and used to construct Env-pseudotyped viruses that were tested in a single-cycle neutralisation assay. The epitopes defining three of these MAbs were determined from sequence analysis of the envelope genes. None of the seven HIV-1 subtype C pseudovirions was sensitive to 2G12 or 2F5, which correlated with the absence of crucial N-linked glycans that define the 2G12 epitope and substitutions of residues integral to the 2F5 epitope. Four viruses were sensitive to IgG1b12, and all seven viruses were sensitive to 4E10. CONCLUSIONS: Only 4E10 showed significant activity against HIV-1 subtype C isolates, while 2G12 and 2F5 MAbs were ineffective and IgG1b12 was partly effective. It is therefore recommended that 2G12 and 2F5 MAbs not be used for passive immunization experiments in southern Africa and other regions where HIV-1 subtype C viruses predominate

Prevention of mother-to-child Transmission: A report-back from the XV International AIDS Conference, Bangkok, 11 - 16 July 2004

The XV International AIDS Conference was held in Bangkok from 11 to 16 July 2004. The theme of the conference was ‘Access for all\'. It was an enormous gathering; 10 000 abstracts were accepted for presentation, of which approximately 400 were oral. There were 19 500 attendees from all over the globe with a high representation from Asian countries. South Africa was well represented by a large contingent including politicians, researchers, activists and government officials. The abstracts and presentations which may have an impact on policy and research directions have been reviewed and are summarised. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine Vol. 5 (3) 2004: 17-2

Self-regulation: A new perspective on learning problems experienced by children born extremely preterm

Survival rates are increasing for children born extremely preterm, yet despite the majority of these children having IQ scores within the average range, 50-70% of these children have later school difficulties. This paper reviews factors associated with academic difficulties in these children, emphasizing the contributions of executive functions (EF) and self-regulation. The roles of EF are examined separately, and also under the unifying construct of self-regulation; that is, the integration of various behavioural, cognitive, and affective elements. Improving self-regulatory skills could moderate the negative effects of EF deficits and inform interventions to improve the educational outcomes of these childre

Humoral response to Mycobacterium avium subsp. avium in naturally infected ring-neck doves (Streptopelia risoria)

Creation of a reliable and easy to use serologic test would greatly improve ante mortem diagnosis of Mycobacterium avium subsp. avium and aid in the control of avian mycobacteriosis, particularly in captive birds. In order to determine whether serodiagnostics could be of value in testing ring-neck doves (Streptopelia risoria) for M. a. avium infection, Western blot analysis was used to assess the humoral response of ring-neck doves exposed to M. a. avium, and to evaluate whether an association could be made between humoral response and necropsy findings, histopathology, culture, and PCR testing. Western blot results were examined for reactivity patterns associating the humoral response with infection status, severity and type of lesions (diffuse vs multifocal granulomatous inflammation) and phenotype (white vs non-white). A sensitivity of 88.24% and a specificity of 100% were achieved utilizing Western blot analysis to detect M. a. avium infection in ring-neck doves, offering a negative predictive value of 93% and a positive predictive value of 100%. While Western blot analysis results did not reflect lesion severity, lesion type did partially correspond with the humoral response. The findings of the present study indicate that serologic testing can be used as a valuable ante mortem screening tool for identifying ring-neck doves infected with M. a. avium