Does Resource Commercialization Induce Local Conservation? A Cautionary Tale From Southwestern Morocco

Ecotourism, bioprospecting and non-timber product marketing have been promoted recently as market-based instruments for environment protection, but without sound understanding of the resulting net conservation effects. We present evidence on the local conservation effects of recent argan oil commercialization in Morocco, which seems a promising case study in conservation through resource commercialization. Our empirical analysis shows, however, that resource commercialization is not creating strong net conservation incentives because assumptions implicit in the prevailing logic prove incorrect in this case. Generally, the experience of southwestern Morocco provides a cautionary tale about the assumed efficacy of conservation strategies founded on resource commercialization.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

STOCHASTIC WEALTH DYNAMICS AND RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG A POOR POPULATION

The literature on economic growth and development has focused considerable attention on questions of risk management and the possibility of multiple equilibria associated with poverty traps. We use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a very poor population. These data yield several novel findings. Although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter, household-specific factors, including own herd size, account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics. Despite longstanding conventional wisdom about common property grazing lands, we find no statistical support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis. It appears that past studies may have conflated costly self-insurance with stocking rate externalities. Such self-insurance is important in this setting because weak livestock markets and meager social insurance cause wealth to fluctuate largely in response to biophysical shocks. These shocks move households between multiple dynamic wealth equilibria toward which households converge following nonconvex path dynamics. The lowest equilibrium is consistent with the notion of a poverty trap. These findings have broad implications for the design of development and relief strategies among a poor population extraordinarily vulnerable to climatic shocks.common property, covariate risk, Ethiopia, idiosyncratic risk, poverty traps, social insurance, Risk and Uncertainty, O1, Q12,

BAYESIAN HERDERS: ASYMMETRIC UPDATING OF RAINFALL BELIEFS IN RESPONSE TO EXTERNAL FORECASTS

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Recent advances in model-based climate forecasting have expanded the range, timeliness and accuracy of forecasts available to decision-makers whose welfare depends on stochastic climate outcomes. There has consequently been considerable recent investment in improved climate forecasting for the developing world. Yet, in cultures that have long used indigenous climate forecasting methods, forecasts generated and disseminated by outsiders using unfamiliar methods may not readily gain the acceptance necessary to induce behavioral change. The value of model-based climate forecasts depends critically on the premise that forecast recipients actually use external forecast information to update their rainfall expectations. We test this premise using unique survey data from pastoralists and agropastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, specifying and estimating a model of herders updating seasonal rainfall beliefs. We find that those who receive and believe model-based seasonal climate forecasts indeed update their priors in the direction of the forecast received, assimilating optimistic forecasts more readily than pessimistic forecasts.Agribusiness, O1, D1, Q12,

Bayesian Herders: Optimistic Updating of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Forecasts

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world\u27s poor. Model based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information and find that they indeed do, albeit with a systematic bias towards optimism. In their systematic optimism, these pastoralists are remarkably like Wall Street\u27s financial analysts and stockbrokers. If climate forecasts have limited value to these pastoralists, it is due to the flexibility of their livelihood rather than an inability to process forecast information

Bayesian Herders: Asymmetric Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world\u27s poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information and find that they indeed do, albeit with a systematic bias towards optimism. In their systematic optimism, these pastoralists are remarkably like Wall Street\u27s financial analysts and stockbrokers. If climate forecasts have limited value to these pastoralists, it is due to the flexibility of their livelihood rather than an inability to process forecast information

Dynamic Field Experiments in Development Economics: Risk Valuation in Morocco, Kenya, and Peru

The effective design and implementation of interventions that reduce vulnerability and poverty require a solid understanding of underlying poverty dynamics and associated behavioral responses. Stochastic and dynamic benefit streams can make it difficult for the poor to learn the value of such interventions to them. We explore how dynamic field experiments can help (i) intended beneficiaries to learn and understand these complicated benefit streams, and (ii) researchers to better understand how the poor respond to risk when faced with nonlinear welfare dynamics. We discuss and analyze dynamic risk valuation experiments in Morocco, Peru, and Kenya.poverty, risk and uncertainty, dynamics, experiments, Kenya, Morocco, Peru, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Asset Thresholds and Social Protection: A ‘Think?Piece’

The dedication of this issue of the IDS Bulletin to social protection testifies to the topic’s increasing importance in development discourse and policy. Holzmann et al. (2003) describe the rise of social protection within the World Bank. They trace its rise at least in part to th

The Impact of Energy Prices on Green Innovation

Based on patent data and industry specific energy prices for 18 OECD countries over 30 years we investigate on an industry level the impact of energy prices on green innovation activities. Our econometric models show that energy prices and green innovation activities are positively related and that energy prices have a significantly positive impact on the share of green innovations in non-green innovations. More concretely, our main model shows that a 10% increase of the average energy prices of the previous five years results in a 2.7% and 4.5% increase of the number of green innovations and the share of green innovations in non-green innovations, respectively. We also find that the impact of energy prices increases with an increasing lag between energy prices and innovation activities. Robustness tests confirm the main results