Kidney Age Index (KAI):A novel age-related biomarker to estimate kidney function in patients with diabetic kidney disease using machine learning

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: With aging, patients with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) show progressive decrease in kidney function. We investigated whether the deviation of biological age (BA) from the chronological age (CA) due to DKD can be used (denoted as Kidney Age Index; KAI) to quantify kidney function using machine learning algorithms. METHODS: Three large datasets were used in this study to develop KAI. The machine learning algorithms were trained on PREVEND dataset with healthy subjects (N = 7963) using 13 clinical markers to predict the CA. The trained model was then used to predict the BA of patients with DKD using RENAAL (N = 1451) and IDNT (N = 1706). The performance of four traditional machine learning algorithms were evaluated and the KAI = BA-CA was estimated for each patient. RESULTS: The neural network model achieved the best performance and predicted the CA of healthy subjects in PREVEND dataset with a mean absolute deviation (MAD) = 6.5 ± 3.5 years and pearson correlation = 0.62. Patients with DKD showed a significant higher KAI of 15.4 ± 11.8 years and 13.6 ± 12.3 years in RENAAL and IDNT datasets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that for a given CA, patients with DKD shows excess BA when compared to their healthy counterparts due to disease severity. With further improvement, the proposed KAI can be used as a complementary easy-to-interpret tool to give a more inclusive idea into disease state

Circulating Total Bilirubin and Future Risk of Hypertension in the General Population: The Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) Prospective Study and a Mendelian Randomization Approach

BACKGROUND: Circulating total bilirubin is known to be inversely and independently associated with future risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the relationship of circulating total bilirubin with incident hypertension is uncertain. We aimed to assess the association of total bilirubin with future hypertension risk and supplemented this with a Mendelian randomization approach to investigate any causal relevance to the association. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma total bilirubin levels were measured at baseline in the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease) prospective study of 3989 men and women without hypertension. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of total bilirubin with incident hypertension were assessed. New-onset hypertension was recorded in 1206 participants during a median follow-up of 10.7 years. Baseline total bilirubin was approximately log-linearly associated with hypertension risk. Age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio for hypertension per 1-SD increase in loge total bilirubin was 0.86 (0.81-0.92; P0.05 for all), arguing against a strong causal association of circulating bilirubin with blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The weak and inverse association of circulating total bilirubin with future hypertension risk may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. Further evaluation is warranted.The Dutch Kidney Foundation supported the infrastructure of the PREVEND program from 1997 to 2003 (Grant E.033). The University Medical Center Groningen supported the infrastructure from 2003 to 2006. Dade Behring, Ausam, Roche, and Abbott financed laboratory equipment and reagents by which various laboratory determinations could be performed. The Dutch Heart Foundation supported studies on lipid metabolism (Grant 2001‐005). The funding sources had no role in study design; in data collection, analysis, or interpretation of the data; in writing of the report; or in the decision to submit for publication

Educational level and risk of chronic kidney disease:longitudinal data from the PREVEND study

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal association between low education and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its underlying mechanisms is poorly characterized. We therefore examined the association of low education with incident CKD and change in kidney function, and explored potential mediators of this association. METHODS: We analysed data on 6078 participants from the community-based Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study. Educational level was categorized into low, medium and high ( secondary schooling, respectively). Kidney function was assessed by estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by serum creatinine and cystatin C at five examinations during ∼11 years of follow-up. Incident CKD was defined as new-onset eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and/or urinary albumin ≥30 mg/24 h in those free of CKD at baseline. We estimated main effects with Cox regression and linear mixed models. In exploratory causal mediation analyses, we examined mediation by several potential risk factors. RESULTS: Incident CKD was observed in 861 (17%) participants. Lower education was associated with higher rates of incident CKD [low versus high education; hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) 1.25 (1.05-1.48), Ptrend = 0.009] and accelerated eGFR decline [B (95% CI) -0.15 (-0.21 to -0.09) mL/min/1.73 m2/year, Ptrend < 0.001]. The association between education and incident CKD was mediated by smoking, potassium excretion, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and hypertension. Analysis on annual eGFR change in addition suggested mediation by magnesium excretion, protein intake and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, we observed an inverse association of educational level with CKD. Diabetes and the modifiable risk factors smoking, poor diet, BMI, WHR and hypertension are suggested to underlie this association. These findings provide support for targeted preventive policies to reduce socioeconomic disparities in kidney disease

Proenkephalin and risk of developing chronic kidney disease:The Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study

BACKGROUND: Proenkephalin (pro-ENK) was recently found to be associated with low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The association of pro-ENK with urinary albumin excretion (UAE), another marker for chronic kidney disease (CKD), has not been investigated. We examined the association of pro-ENK with eGFR and UAE as markers of CKD. METHODS: We included 4375 subjects of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study. CKDeGFR was defined as development of eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and CKDUAE as albuminuria >30 mg/24 h. RESULTS: Baseline median pro-ENK was 52.2 (IQR: 44.9-60.5) pmol/L. After a median follow-up of 8.4 (IQR: 7.9-8.9) years, 183 subjects developed CKDeGFR and 371 developed CKDUAE. The association of pro-ENK with CKDeGFR was modified by sex (Pinteraction < 0.1), in such a way that after adjustment, the association only remained significant in men (adjusted hazard ratio per SD increase in 10log-transformed pro-ENK, 1.65; 95% CI: 1.15-2.36) and not in women (0.83; 0.58-1.20). No significant association was observed between pro-ENK and CKDUAE risk (0.83; 0.58-1.20). CONCLUSIONS: High pro-ENK is associated with increased risk of CKDeGFR in men, but not in women. No association of pro-ENK with CKDUAE was observed. These results should be interpreted with caution, since residual confounding and potential overfitting of models could have influenced the results

Separating the effects of 24-hour urinary chloride and sodium excretion on blood pressure and risk of hypertension:Results from PREVEND

OBJECTIVE:Research into dietary factors associated with hypertension has focused on the sodium component of salt. However, chloride has distinct physiological effects that may surpass the effect of sodium on blood pressure. This study aims to separate the specific effects of chloride and sodium intake on blood pressure. METHODS:We studied 5673 participants from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease(PREVEND) study. Urinary chloride(uCl) and sodium(uNa) were measured in two 24-hour collections. We used generalized-linear-regression to evaluate the relation of uCl and uNa with baseline blood pressure and Cox-proportional-hazards-analysis to assess the association with hypertension. Multicollinearity was assessed with Ridge regression. RESULTS:Baseline 24-hour uCl was 135±39mmol and uNa was 144±54mmol. The correlation between uCl and uNa was high (Pearson's r = 0.96). UCl and uNa had similar non-significant positive and linear associations with blood pressure. In 3515 normotensive patients, 1021 patients developed hypertension during a median follow-up of 7.4 years. UCl and uNa had a comparable but non-significant J-shaped effect on the risk of hypertension. Adding both uCl and uNa to the same model produced instability, demonstrated by Ridge coefficients that converged or changed sign. The single index of uNa minus uCl showed a non-significant higher risk of hypertension of 2% per 10mmol/24-hour difference (HR1.02, 95%CI 0.98-1.06). CONCLUSION:UCl and uNa had similar positive but non-significant associations with blood pressure and risk of hypertension and their effects could not be disentangled. Hence, the alleged adverse effects of high salt intake could be due to sodium, chloride or both. This encourages further study into the effect of chloride in order to complement dietary recommendations currently focused on sodium alone

HDL Particle Subspecies and Their Association With Incident Type 2 Diabetes:The PREVEND Study

Context: High-density lipoproteins (HDL) may be protective against type 2 diabetes (T2D) development, but HDL particles vary in size and function, which could lead to differential associations with incident T2D. A newly developed nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)derived algorithm provides concentrations for 7 HDL subspecies. Objective: We aimed to investigate the association of HDL particle subspecies with incident T2D in the general population. Methods: Among 4828 subjects of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study without T2D at baseline, HDL subspecies with increasing size from H1P to H7P were measured by NMR (LP4 algorithm of the Vantera NMR platform). Results: A total of 265 individuals developed T2D (median follow-up of 7.3 years). In Cox regression models, HDL size and H4P (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD increase 0.83 [95% CI, 0.690.99] and 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.95], respectively) were inversely associated with incident T2D, after adjustment for relevant covariates. In contrast, levels of H2P were positively associated with incidentT2D (HR 1.15 [95% CI, 1.01-1.32]). In secondary analyses, associations with large HDL particles and H6P were modified by body mass index (BMI) in such a way that they were particularly associated with a lower risk of incident T2D, in subjects with BMI < 30 kg/m(2). Conclusion: Greater HDL size and lower levels of H4P were associated with a lower risk, whereas higher levels of H2P were associated with a higher risk of developing T2D. In addition, large HDL particles and H6P were inversely associated with T2D in nonobese subjects

Circulating total bilirubin and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the PREVEND study:observational findings and a Mendelian randomization study

The relationship between circulating total bilirubin and incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is uncertain. We aimed to assess the association of total bilirubin with the risk of new-onset NAFLD and investigate any causal relevance to the association using a Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Plasma total bilirubin levels were measured at baseline in the PREVEND prospective study of 3824 participants (aged 28-75 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease or NAFLD. Incident NAFLD was estimated using the biomarker-based algorithms, fatty liver index (FLI) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI). Odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals) for NAFLD were assessed. The genetic variant rs6742078 located in the UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus was used as an instrumental variable. Participants were followed up for a mean duration of 4.2 years. The multivariable adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by FLI (434 cases) was 0.82 (0.73-0.92; p=0.001) per 1 standard deviation (SD) change in log(e) total bilirubin. The corresponding adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by HSI (452 cases) was 0.87 (0.78-0.97; p=0.012). The rs6742078 variant explained 20% of bilirubin variation. The ORs (95% CIs) for a 1 SD genetically elevated total bilirubin level was 0.98 (0.69-1.38; p=0.900) for FLI and 1.14 (0.81-1.59; p=0.451) for HSI. Elevated levels of total bilirubin were not causally associated with decreased risk of NAFLD based on MR analysis. The observational association may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. However, due to low statistical power, larger-scale investigations are necessary to draw definitive conclusions

High Plasma Branched-Chain Amino Acids Are Associated with Higher Risk of Post-Transplant Diabetes Mellitus in Renal Transplant Recipients

Post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) is a serious complication in renal transplant recipients. Branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) are involved in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance. We determined the association of plasma BCAAs with PTDM and included adult renal transplant recipients (>= 18 y) with a functioning graft for >= 1 year in this cross-sectional cohort study with prospective follow-up. Plasma BCAAs were measured in 518 subjects using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. We excluded subjects with a history of diabetes, leaving 368 non-diabetic renal transplant recipients eligible for analyses. Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to assess the association of BCAAs with the development of PTDM. Mean age was 51.1 +/- 13.6 y (53.6% men) and plasma BCAA was 377.6 +/- 82.5 mu M. During median follow-up of 5.3 (IQR, 4.2-6.0) y, 38 (9.8%) patients developed PTDM. BCAAs were associated with a higher risk of developing PTDM (HR: 1.43, 95% CI 1.08-1.89) per SD change (p = 0.01), independent of age and sex. Adjustment for other potential confounders did not significantly change this association, although adjustment for HbA1c eliminated it. The association was mediated to a considerable extent (53%) by HbA1c. The association was also modified by HbA1c; BCAAs were only associated with renal transplant recipients without prediabetes (HbA1c <5.7%). In conclusion, high concentrations of plasma BCAAs are associated with developing PTDM in renal transplant recipients. Alterations in BCAAs may represent an early predictive biomarker for PTDM

Sex differences in associations of comorbidities with incident cardiovascular disease: focus on absolute risk

AIM: To examine sex differences in associations of obesity, type-2 diabetes, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation (AF) with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), focusing on absolute risk measures. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included a total of 7994 individuals (mean age 49.1 years; 51.2% women) without prior CVD from the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease) cohort with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. Using Poisson regression, we calculated the increase in absolute as well as relative CVD risk associated with a comorbidity using incidence rate differences (IRD = IR(comorbidity)−IR(no-comorbidity)) and incidence rate ratios (IRR = IR(comorbidity)/IR(no-comorbidity)), respectively. Sex differences were presented as women-to-men differences (WMD = IRD(women)−IRD(men)) and women-to-men ratios (WMR = IRR(women)/IRR(men)). Absolute CVD risk was lower in women than in men (IR(women): 6.73 vs. IR(men): 14.58 per 1000 person-years). While increase in absolute CVD risk associated with prevalent hypertension was lower in women than in men [WMD: −6.12, 95% confidence interval: (−9.84 to −2.40), P = 0.001], increase in absolute CVD risk associated with prevalent obesity [WMD: −4.25 (−9.11 to 0.61), P = 0.087], type-2 diabetes [WMD: −1.04 (−14.36 to 12.29), P = 0.879] and AF [WMD: 18.39 (−39.65 to 76.43), P = 0.535] did not significantly differ between the sexes. Using relative risk measures, prevalent hypertension [WMR: 1.49%, 95% confidence interval: (1.12–1.99), P = 0.006], type-2 diabetes [WMR: 1.73 (1.09–2.73), P = 0.019], and AF [WMR: 2.53 (1.12–5.70), P = 0.025] were all associated with higher CVD risk in women than in men. CONCLUSION: Increase in absolute risk of developing CVD is higher in hypertensive men than in hypertensive women, but no substantial sex-related differences were observed among individuals with obesity, type-2 diabetes and AF. On a relative risk scale, comorbidities, in general, confer a higher CVD risk in women than in men

Plasma Calprotectin Levels Associate with Suspected Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease and All-Cause Mortality in the General Population

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is characterized by hepatic steatosis, metabolic dysregulation, and neutrophilic inflammation. In this study, we hypothesized that systemic levels of plasma calprotectin, as a biomarker of neutrophilic inflammation, may be associated with suspected MAFLD. Plasma calprotectin levels were measured in subjects (n = 5446) participating in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort study. Suspected MAFLD was defined by the fatty liver index (FLI ≥ 60) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI ≥ 36) as proxies. Plasma calprotectin levels were significantly higher in subjects with FLI ≥ 60 (0.57 [IQR: 0.42–0.79] mg/L, n = 1592) (p < 0.001) compared to subjects with FLI < 60 (0.46 [0.34–0.65] mg/L, n = 3854). Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that plasma calprotectin levels were significantly associated with suspected MAFLD (FLI ≥ 60), even after adjustment for potential confounding factors, including current smoking, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), hs-CRP, eGFR, and total cholesterol levels (OR 1.19 [95% CI: 1.06–1.33], p = 0.003). Interaction analyses revealed significant effect modifications for the association between plasma calprotectin and suspected MAFLD by BMI (p < 0.001) and hypertension (p = 0.003), with the strongest associations in subjects with normal BMI and without hypertension. Prospectively, plasma calprotectin levels were significantly associated with all-cause mortality after adjustment for potential confounding factors, particularly in subjects without suspected MAFLD (FLI < 60) (hazard ratio (HR) per doubling: 1.34 (1.05–1.72), p < 0.05). In conclusion, higher plasma calprotectin levels are associated with suspected MAFLD and with the risk of all-cause mortality, the latter especially in subjects without suspected MAFLD