1,161 research outputs found

    Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices

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    We study the distribution of fluctuations over a time scale Δt\Delta t (i.e., the returns) of the S&P 500 index by analyzing three distinct databases. Database (i) contains approximately 1 million records sampled at 1 min intervals for the 13-year period 1984-1996, database (ii) contains 8686 daily records for the 35-year period 1962-1996, and database (iii) contains 852 monthly records for the 71-year period 1926-1996. We compute the probability distributions of returns over a time scale Δt\Delta t, where Δt\Delta t varies approximately over a factor of 10^4 - from 1 min up to more than 1 month. We find that the distributions for Δt\Delta t \leq 4 days (1560 mins) are consistent with a power-law asymptotic behavior, characterized by an exponent α3\alpha \approx 3, well outside the stable L\'evy regime 0<α<20 < \alpha < 2. To test the robustness of the S&P result, we perform a parallel analysis on two other financial market indices. Database (iv) contains 3560 daily records of the NIKKEI index for the 14-year period 1984-97, and database (v) contains 4649 daily records of the Hang-Seng index for the 18-year period 1980-97. We find estimates of α\alpha consistent with those describing the distribution of S&P 500 daily-returns. One possible reason for the scaling of these distributions is the long persistence of the autocorrelation function of the volatility. For time scales longer than (Δt)×4(\Delta t)_{\times} \approx 4 days, our results are consistent with slow convergence to Gaussian behavior.Comment: 12 pages in multicol LaTeX format with 27 postscript figures (Submitted to PRE May 20, 1999). See http://polymer.bu.edu/~amaral/Professional.html for more of our work on this are

    Mining for diagnostic information in body surface potential maps: A comparison of feature selection techniques

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    BACKGROUND: In body surface potential mapping, increased spatial sampling is used to allow more accurate detection of a cardiac abnormality. Although diagnostically superior to more conventional electrocardiographic techniques, the perceived complexity of the Body Surface Potential Map (BSPM) acquisition process has prohibited its acceptance in clinical practice. For this reason there is an interest in striking a compromise between the minimum number of electrocardiographic recording sites required to sample the maximum electrocardiographic information. METHODS: In the current study, several techniques widely used in the domains of data mining and knowledge discovery have been employed to mine for diagnostic information in 192 lead BSPMs. In particular, the Single Variable Classifier (SVC) based filter and Sequential Forward Selection (SFS) based wrapper approaches to feature selection have been implemented and evaluated. Using a set of recordings from 116 subjects, the diagnostic ability of subsets of 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 and 32 electrocardiographic recording sites have been evaluated based on their ability to correctly asses the presence or absence of Myocardial Infarction (MI). RESULTS: It was observed that the wrapper approach, using sequential forward selection and a 5 nearest neighbour classifier, was capable of choosing a set of 24 recording sites that could correctly classify 82.8% of BSPMs. Although the filter method performed slightly less favourably, the performance was comparable with a classification accuracy of 79.3%. In addition, experiments were conducted to show how (a) features chosen using the wrapper approach were specific to the classifier used in the selection model, and (b) lead subsets chosen were not necessarily unique. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that both the filter and wrapper approaches adopted were suitable for guiding the choice of recording sites useful for determining the presence of MI. It should be noted however that in this study recording sites have been suggested on their ability to detect disease and such sites may not be optimal for estimating body surface potential distributions

    Neurochemical Differences in Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 14 and 1

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    Autosomal-dominant spinocerebellar ataxias (SCA) are neurodegenerative diseases characterized by progressive ataxia. Here, we report on neurometabolic alterations in spinocerebellar ataxia type 1 (SCA1; SCA-ATXN1) and 14 (SCA14; SCA-PRKCG) assessed by non-invasive 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Three Tesla 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy was performed in 17 SCA14, 14 SCA1 patients, and in 31 healthy volunteers. We assessed metabolites in the cerebellar vermis, right cerebellar hemisphere, pons, prefrontal, and motor cortex. Additionally, clinical characteristics were obtained for each patient to correlate them with metabolites. In SCA14, metabolic changes were restricted to the cerebellar vermis compared with widespread neurochemical alterations in SCA1. In SCA14, total N-acetylaspartate (tNAA) was reduced in the vermis by 34%. In SCA1, tNAA was reduced in the vermis (24%), cerebellar hemisphere (26%), and pons (25%). SCA14 patients showed 24% lower glutamate+glutamine (Glx) and 46% lower γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in the vermis, while SCA1 patients showed no alterations in Glx and GABA. SCA1 revealed a decrease of aspartate (Asp) in the vermis (62%) and an elevation in the prefrontal cortex (130%) as well as an elevation of myo-inositol (Ins) in the cerebellar hemisphere (51%) and pons (46%). No changes of Asp and Ins were detected in SCA14. Beyond, glucose (Glc) was increased in the vermis of both SCA14 (155%) and SCA1 (247%). 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy revealed differing neurochemical profiles in SCA1 and SCA14 and confirmed metabolic changes that may be indicative for neuronal loss and dysfunctional energy metabolism. Therefore, 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy represents a helpful tool for in-vivo tracking of disease-specific pathophysiology

    Emerging properties of financial time series in the “Game of Life”

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    We explore the spatial complexity of Conway’s “Game of Life,” a prototypical cellular automaton by means of a geometrical procedure generating a two-dimensional random walk from a bidimensional lattice with periodical boundaries. The one-dimensional projection of this process is analyzed and it turns out that some of its statistical properties resemble the so-called stylized facts observed in financial time series. The scope and meaning of this result are discussed from the viewpoint of complex systems. In particular, we stress how the supposed peculiarities of financial time series are, often, overrated in their importance

    Universal and non-universal properties of cross-correlations in financial time series

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    We use methods of random matrix theory to analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of price changes of the largest 1000 US stocks for the 2-year period 1994-95. We find that the statistics of most of the eigenvalues in the spectrum of C agree with the predictions of random matrix theory, but there are deviations for a few of the largest eigenvalues. We find that C has the universal properties of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices. Furthermore, we analyze the eigenvectors of C through their inverse participation ratio and find eigenvectors with large inverse participation ratios at both edges of the eigenvalue spectrum--a situation reminiscent of results in localization theory.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, Revte

    "Even if the test result is negative, they should be able to tell us what is wrong with us": a qualitative study of patient expectations of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria.

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    BACKGROUND: The debate on rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria has begun to shift from whether RDTs should be used, to how and under what circumstances their use can be optimized. This has increased the need for a better understanding of the complexities surrounding the role of RDTs in appropriate treatment of fever. Studies have focused on clinician practices, but few have sought to understand patient perspectives, beyond notions of acceptability. METHODS: This qualitative study aimed to explore patient and caregiver perceptions and experiences of RDTs following a trial to assess the introduction of the tests into routine clinical care at four health facilities in one district in Ghana. Six focus group discussions and one in-depth interview were carried out with those who had received an RDT with a negative test result. RESULTS: Patients had high expectations of RDTs. They welcomed the tests as aiding clinical diagnoses and as tools that could communicate their problem better than they could, verbally. However, respondents also believed the tests could identify any cause of illness, beyond malaria. Experiences of patients suggested that RDTs were adopted into an existing system where patients are both physically and intellectually removed from diagnostic processes and where clinicians retain authority that supersedes tests and their results. In this situation, patients did not feel able to articulate a demand for test-driven diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in communication between the health worker and patient, particularly to explain the capabilities of the test and management of RDT negative cases, may both manage patient expectations and promote patient demand for test-driven diagnoses

    Validation of the Aeolus L2B wind product with airborne wind lidar measurements in the polar North Atlantic region and in the tropics

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    During the first 3 years of the European Space Agency's Aeolus mission, the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR) performed four airborne campaigns deploying two different Doppler wind lidars (DWL) on board the DLR Falcon aircraft, aiming to validate the quality of the recent Aeolus Level 2B (L2B) wind data product (processor baseline 11 and 12). The first two campaigns, WindVal III (November–December 2018) and AVATAR-E (Aeolus Validation Through Airborne Lidars in Europe, May and June 2019), were conducted in Europe and provided first insights into the data quality at the beginning of the mission phase. The two later campaigns, AVATAR-I (Aeolus Validation Through Airborne Lidars in Iceland) and AVATAR-T (Aeolus Validation Through Airborne Lidars in the Tropics), were performed in regions of particular interest for the Aeolus validation: AVATAR-I was conducted from Keflavik, Iceland, between 9 September and 1 October 2019 to sample the high wind speeds in the vicinity of the polar jet stream; AVATAR-T was carried out from Sal, Cape Verde, between 6 and 28 September 2021 to measure winds in the Saharan dust-laden African easterly jet. Altogether, 10 Aeolus underflights were performed during AVATAR-I and 11 underflights during AVATAR-T, covering about 8000 and 11 000 km along the Aeolus measurement track, respectively. Based on these collocated measurements, statistical comparisons of Aeolus data with the reference lidar (2 µm DWL) as well as with in situ measurements by the Falcon were performed to determine the systematic and random errors of Rayleigh-clear and Mie-cloudy winds that are contained in the Aeolus L2B product. It is demonstrated that the systematic error almost fulfills the mission requirement of being below 0.7 m s−1 for both Rayleigh-clear and Mie-cloudy winds. The random error is shown to vary between 5.5 and 7.1 m s−1 for Rayleigh-clear winds and is thus larger than specified (2.5 m s−1), whereas it is close to the specifications for Mie-cloudy winds (2.7 to 2.9 m s−1). In addition, the dependency of the systematic and random errors on the actual wind speed, the geolocation, the scattering ratio, and the time difference between 2 µm DWL observation and satellite overflight is investigated and discussed. Thus, this work contributes to the characterization of the Aeolus data quality in different meteorological situations and allows one to investigate wind retrieval algorithm improvements for reprocessed Aeolus data sets.</p

    Improving insect conservation management through insect monitoring and stakeholder involvement

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    In recent years, the decline of insect biodiversity and the imminent loss of provided ecosystem functions and services has received public attention and raised the demand for political action. The complex, multi-causal contributors to insect decline require a broad interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral approach that addresses ecological and social aspects to find sustainable solutions. The project Diversity of Insects in Nature protected Areas (DINA) assesses insect communities in 21 nature reserves in Germany, and considers interactions with plant diversity, pesticide exposure, spatial and climatic factors. The nature reserves border on agricultural land, to investigate impacts on insect diversity. Part of the project is to obtain scientific data from Malaise traps and their surroundings, while another part involves relevant stakeholders to identify opportunities and obstacles to insect diversity conservation. Our results indicate a positive association between insect richness and biomass. Insect richness was negatively related to the number of stationary pesticides (soil and vegetation), pesticides measured in ethanol, the amount of area in agricultural production, and precipitation. Our qualitative survey along with stakeholder interviews show that there is general support for insect conservation, while at the same time the stakeholders expressed the need for more information and data on insect biodiversity, as well as flexible policy options. We conclude that conservation management for insects in protected areas should consider a wider landscape. Local targets of conservation management will have to integrate different stakeholder perspectives. Scientifically informed stakeholder dialogues can mediate conflicts of interests, knowledge, and values to develop mutual conservation scenarios

    Spinocerebellar ataxia type 14: refining clinicogenetic diagnosis in a rare adult‐onset disorder

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    Objectives: Genetic variant classification is a challenge in rare adult-onset disorders as in SCA-PRKCG (prior spinocerebellar ataxia type 14) with mostly private conventional mutations and nonspecific phenotype. We here propose a refined approach for clinicogenetic diagnosis by including protein modeling and provide for confirmed SCA-PRKCG a comprehensive phenotype description from a German multi-center cohort, including standardized 3D MR imaging. Methods: This cross-sectional study prospectively obtained neurological, neuropsychological, and brain imaging data in 33 PRKCG variant carriers. Protein modeling was added as a classification criterion in variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Results: Our sample included 25 cases confirmed as SCA-PRKCG (14 variants, thereof seven novel variants) and eight carriers of variants assigned as VUS (four variants) or benign/likely benign (two variants). Phenotype in SCA-PRKCG included slowly progressive ataxia (onset at 4-50 years), preceded in some by early-onset nonprogressive symptoms. Ataxia was often combined with action myoclonus, dystonia, or mild cognitive-affective disturbance. Inspection of brain MRI revealed nonprogressive cerebellar atrophy. As a novel finding, a previously not described T2 hyperintense dentate nucleus was seen in all SCA-PRKCG cases but in none of the controls. Interpretation: In this largest cohort to date, SCA-PRKCG was characterized as a slowly progressive cerebellar syndrome with some clinical and imaging features suggestive of a developmental disorder. The observed non-ataxia movement disorders and cognitive-affective disturbance may well be attributed to cerebellar pathology. Protein modeling emerged as a valuable diagnostic tool for variant classification and the newly described T2 hyperintense dentate sign could serve as a supportive diagnostic marker of SCA-PRKCG
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