How Divergent Risk-Characters Rewrite the Anti-Vaccination Narrative

The modern narrative originates in 1998, when a paper by a British medical journal The Lancet alleged that the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine may cause autism and bowel disease (Wakefield, Murch, Linnell, & Casson, 1998). The funding of the publication was deemed erroneous, yet the research sparked a connection between vaccines and disorders that would soon undermine public confidence in vaccines. Still today, the debate on vaccines poses a threat to public health in the United States of America as “opt-out” rates, particularly in states with recent outbreaks are increasing (Ratzan, 2011). This study sought to examine what factors contribute to divergent behavior in previously unvaccinated children from the lens of narrative theory and the framework of communication accommodation theory. The narrative analysis draws into question the role of Fisher’s (1984) contribution to narrative theory alongside Palmlund’s (2009) typology of risk characters. The proposed methodology utilizes six qualitative interviews in order to identify the various stimuli that contributed to divergent or convergent behavior within previously unvaccinated individuals. This strategy provides an environment of open-ended discussion and findings that would organically result from the interview process to the point of redundancy. Three main questions along with multiple prompt questions (see figure 1) were formulated in order to accurately and efficiently carry out the interview process, which catered to the participants extrapolation of their narrative. Data from the participant’s answers was analyzed through the use of thematic analysis (Braun & Clarke, 2006) in order to identify patterns in the resulting stimuli affecting behavior. Furthermore, the study sought to provide insight and implications to researchers, students, and practitioners that traditional theories such as narrative and communication accommodation theory stand applicable in the plight to grasp the idiosyncrasies contributing to the latent effects of the vaccination crisis. The results of this study suggested that future health strategies should aim to: (1) establish trust of medical institutions, (2) validate parental decisions, rather than judge them, and (3) encourage independent research (especially outside of social media). The theoretical implications advise that that perceived risk be more closely associated with the creation of narrative in future studies. The practical and societal implications involve the de-stigmatization of the COVID-19 vaccine and other vaccines for the purpose of developing herd immunity against harmful diseases

Reproductive Success Increases with Age in American Kestrels (Falco sparverius), Especially in Breeding Males

Age-related differences in reproductive success have been well documented in many species of birds. The experience gained through successive breeding attempts can improve survival skills, foraging abilities, access to resources through social dominance, and familiarity with each stage of reproduction. In this study we examined 669 nesting attempts by American kestrels (Falco sparverius) from a population that bred in nest boxes in northwestern New Jersey, 1995 to 2018. We tested the hypothesis that older kestrels would have greater nesting success than those in their first reproductive attempt. Clutch size, hatching rate, and the number of chicks that survived to fledging varied significantly and positively with age for both male and female breeders. These trends were associated with the date of clutch initiation and amount of parental attentiveness. Older birds initiated clutches earlier than those in their first breeding attempt, and older birds of both sexes were more likely to be present in the vicinity of the nest site, especially during the incubation and nestling periods. The relationship between age and breeding success was much more pronounced in males than in females. This difference is consistent with the behavioral role that each sex has during a breeding attempt. After laying a clutch, the female performs most of the incubation and broods the young chicks. In contrast, the male provides food to the female prior to egg laying and throughout incubation, and to the entire family until the chicks no longer are brooded by the female. Pairs in which both adults were older had significantly greater nesting success than mixed or young pairs, and we never observed an older female paired with a male in his first reproductive attempt

Monitoring and control of reproducibility in quasi-continuous integrated production processes of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients

The development of integrated production processes include the combination and transformation of current batch oriented unit operations into linked sequential/parallel production strategies. The presented process starts with a two-stage upstream consisting of cell cultivation and subsequent protein production, which in turn results in a five step downstream process, consisting of cell clarification via a separator, retention of cellular debris using microfiltration, concentration of the secreted product by ultrafiltration with subsequent buffer exchange through diafiltration, followed by a final purification using column chromatography. The three main operations cell breeding, protein production and the complete downstream line are running in series, but also in parallel with a one-day-offset each. Such strategies were developed at HAW Hamburg [Luttmann et al., 2015]. To achieve reproducible process conditions, the process development was done in accordance with the known industry guidelines from FDA and ICH regarding QbD and PAT. In this context the identification of optimal Design Spaces and Control Spaces was in the foreground. The in-line measurement of important media components and cell physiological parameters as well as the on-line evaluation of process reproducibility, are remaining unsolved problems in industrial biotechnology - irrespective of whether a process is operated batch wise or continuously. A way out of this dilemma can be found by on-line MVDA data processing. This paper describes a comprehensive application of MVDA in process monitoring and control using the example of an integrated production of potential Malaria vaccines with Pichia pastoris. Cell mass, glycerol and secreted target proteins as well as cell internal AOX content are measured with NIR-, Raman- and 2D-Fluorescence-spectrometry. Here, intensive off-line analysis of the concerned process variables form the foundation for the training of spectral observations as well as for the evaluation of cell specific reaction rates from routinely measured on-line variables with MVDA-investigations. The main approach of MVDA was an on-line monitoring of reproducibility of involved unit operations. This was achieved by off-line modeling of Golden Batch tunnels and on-line evaluation of the process trajectories using SIPAT® and SIMCA® software tools. On top of this, on-line process prediction and on-line Golden Batch control were implemented. The prediction is based on IBR-Imputation by Regression (SIMCA® Q) and the control of processes evolving outside their Golden Batch limitations is based on BOBYQA-Bound Optimization by Quadratic Approximation (SIMCA® online). Such methods for process monitoring and control of quasi continuous pharmaceutical production pave the way for Real Time Release of APIs. All approaches have been approved and tested in real industrial-like production processes which have been performed over several weeks

Worldwide trends in esophageal cancer survival, by sub-site, morphology, and sex: an analysis of 696,974 adults diagnosed in 60 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer survival is poor worldwide, though there is some variation. Differences in the distribution of anatomical sub-site and morphological sub-type may help explain international differences in survival for all esophageal cancers combined. We estimated survival by anatomic sub-site and morphological sub-type to understand further the impact of topography and morphology on international comparisons of esophageal cancer survival. METHODS: We estimated age-standardized one-year and five-year net survival among adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with esophageal cancer in each of 60 participating countries to monitor survival trends by calendar period of diagnosis (2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014), sub-site, morphology, and sex. RESULTS: For adults diagnosed during 2010-2014, tumors in the lower third of the esophagus were the most common, followed by tumors of overlapping sub-site and sub-site not otherwise specified. The proportion of squamous cell carcinomas diagnosed during 2010-2014 was generally higher in Asian countries (50%-90%), while adenocarcinomas were more common in Europe, North America and Oceania (50%-60%). From 2000-2004 to 2010-2014, the proportion of squamous cell carcinoma generally decreased, and the proportion of adenocarcinoma increased. Over time, there were few improvements in age-standardized five-year survival for each sub-site. Age-standardized one-year survival was highest in Japan for both squamous cell carcinoma (67.7%) and adenocarcinoma (69.0%), ranging between 20%-60% in most other countries. Age-standardized five-year survival from squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma was similar for most countries included, around 15%-20% for adults diagnosed during 2010-2014, though international variation was wider for squamous cell carcinoma. In most countries, survival for both squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma increased by less than 5% between 2000-2004 and 2010-2014. CONCLUSIONS: Esophageal cancer survival remains poor in many countries. The distributions of sub-site and morphological sub-type vary between countries, but these differences do not fully explain international variation in esophageal cancer survival

The net impact of corporate seasonality on the accuracy of earnings forecasts published by financial analysts

Includes bibliographical references

Computational Methods for Analyzing Fluid Flow Dynamics from Digital Imagery

The main goal (long term) of this work is to perform computational dynamics analysis and quantify uncertainty from vector fields computed directly from measured data. Global analysis based on observed spatiotemporal evolution is performed by objective function based on expected physics and informed scientific priors, variational optimization to compute vector fields from measured data, and transport analysis proceeding with observations and priors. A mathematical formulation for computing flow fields is set up for computing the minimizer for the problem. An application to oceanic flow based on sea surface temperature is presented

Physics Experiments and Abstract Harmonic Analysis: A Generalized Peano Kernel Theorem for Estimating Errors in Laser Interferometry

This slide-show discusses the use of the Local Polynomial Approximation (LPA) to smooth signals from photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) applying a generalized Peano kernel theorem