Rule Based Forecasting [RBF] - Improving Efficacy of Judgmental Forecasts Using Simplified Expert Rules

Rule-based Forecasting (RBF) has emerged to be an effective forecasting model compared to well-accepted benchmarks. However, the original RBF model, introduced in1992, incorporates 99 production rules and is, therefore, difficult to apply judgmentally. In this research study, we present a core rule-set from RBF that can be used to inform both judgmental forecasting practice and pedagogy. The simplified rule-set, called coreRBF, is validated by asking forecasters to judgmentally apply the rules to time series forecasting tasks. Results demonstrate that forecasting accuracy from judgmental use of coreRBF is not statistically different from that reported from similar applications of RBF. Further, we benchmarked these coreRBF forecasts against forecasts from (a) untrained forecasters, (b) an expert system based on RBF, and (c) the original 1992 RBF study. Forecast accuracies were in the hypothesized direction, arguing for the generalizability and validity of the coreRBF rules

Development and Validation of a Rule-based Time Series Complexity Scoring Technique to Support Design of Adaptive Forecasting DSS

Evidence from forecasting research gives reason to believe that understanding time series complexity can enable design of adaptive forecasting decision support systems (FDSSs) to positively support forecasting behaviors and accuracy of outcomes. Yet, such FDSS design capabilities have not been formally explored because there exists no systematic approach to identifying series complexity. This study describes the development and validation of a rule-based complexity scoring technique (CST) that generates a complexity score for time series using 12 rules that rely on 14 features of series. The rule-based schema was developed on 74 series and validated on 52 holdback series using well-accepted forecasting methods as benchmarks. A supporting experimental validation was conducted with 14 participants who generated 336 structured judgmental forecasts for sets of series classified as simple or complex by the CST. Benchmark comparisons validated the CST by confirming, as hypothesized, that forecasting accuracy was lower for series scored by the technique as complex when compared to the accuracy of those scored as simple. The study concludes with a comprehensive framework for design of FDSS that can integrate the CST to adaptively support forecasters under varied conditions of series complexity. The framework is founded on the concepts of restrictiveness and guidance and offers specific recommendations on how these elements can be built in FDSS to support complexity

Orbital operation for large automated satellites

Orbital operations concepts for the shuttle launched Large Automated Satellites (LAS) are discussed. It includes the orbital operations elements and the major options for accomplishing each element. This study is based on the preliminary payload information available in Level I and II documents and on orbital operations methods used on past programs, both manned and unmanned. It includes a definition of detailed trade studies which need to be performed as satellite design details and organization responsibilities are defined. The major objectives of this study were to define operational methods and requirements for the long duration LAS missions which are effective and primarily economical to implement

Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis

This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those derived from traditional reviews. This meta-analysis indicated that business reply postage is seldom costeffective because first class postage yields an additional 9% return. Business reply rates were lower than for other first class postage in each of the 20 comparisons.surveys, meta-analysis, return postage

A Two-Dimensional Carbon Semiconductor

We show that patterned defects can be used to disrupt the sub-lattice symmetry of graphene so as to open up a band gap. This way of modifying graphene's electronic structure does not rely on external agencies, the addition of new elements or special boundaries. The method is used to predict a planar, low energy, graphene allotrope with a band gap of 1.2 eV. This defect engineering also allows semiconducting ribbons of carbon to be fabricated within graphene. Linear arrangements of defects lead to naturally embedded ribbons of the semiconducting material in graphene, offering the prospect of two-dimensional circuit logic composed entirely of carbon.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

A Behavioural Finance Explanation of a Gearing-ß Inverse Association Referencing Weill’s Liquidity Result (in English)

The authors investigated Arnold’s conjecture that Leverage (Financial Gearing) and Operating Gearing should be positively related to the equity ß of the Sharpe/Lintner CAPM. They find for a sample of the S&P 500 firms that have been on that index continuously for more than 15 years, that ß is negatively associated with Leverage and Operating Gearing. Using Weill’s results for transitional economies, the authors suggest that liquidity may provide an explanation for this anomalous ß-Gearing inversion. The implications are: that (1) one should revaluate the positive associations posited for Financial and Operating gearing with ß and (2) consider the possibility of managing liquidity as a way to affect ß.financial gearing; leverage; liquidity; beta

Isolation for Profit: How Privately Provided Video Visitation Services Incentivize Bans on In-Person Visitation Within American Correctional Facilities

American correctional facilities are banning in-person visitation in lieu of privately provided and expensive video visitation services. This Note discusses the types of private services provided; how video visitation negatively affects inmates’ mental health and finances; and the ongoing legal battle occurring in Knox County, Tennessee, regarding whether the Knox County Jail’s ban on in-person visitation violates the Constitution. Because of the significant degree of deference courts grant correctional facilities when considering whether challenged regulations violate the Constitution, it will be difficult for the Knox County Jail inmates to successfully argue that the jail has violated their constitutional rights. There are, however, other methods to challenging bans on in-person visitation. Through political advocacy, individuals and organizations have successfully motivated counties throughout the United States to overturn and prohibit bans on in-person visitation. Going forward, political advocacy seems like the best method for challenging these bans

Return postage in mail surveys: a meta analysis

This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those derived from traditional reviews. This meta-analysis indicated that business reply postage is seldom cost effective because first class postage yields an additional 9% return. Business reply rates were lower than for other first class postage in each of the 20 comparisons

Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M-Competition)

In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by Spyros Makridakis (Makridakis et al., 1982). In this, the ex ante forecast errors of 21 methods were compared for forecasts of a variety of economic time series, generally using 1001 time series. Only extrapolative methods were used, as no data were available on causal variables. The accuracies of methods were compared using a variety of accuracy measures for different types of data and for varying forecast horizons. The original paper did not contain much interpretation or discussion. Partly this was by design, to be unbiased in the presentation. A more important factor, however, was the difficulty in gaining consensus on interpretation and presentation among the diverse group of authors, many of whom have a vested interest in certain methods. In the belief that this study was of major importance, we decided to obtain a more complete discussion of the results. We do not believe that “the data speak for themselves.

The Accuracy of Alternative Extrapolation Models: Analysis of a Forecasting Competition Through Open Peer Review

In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by Spyros Makridakis (Makridakis et al., 1982). In this, the ex ante forecast errors of 21 methods were compared for forecasts of a variety of economic time series, generally using 1001 time series. Only extrapolative methods were used, as no data were available on causal variables. The accuracies of methods were compared using a variety of accuracy measures for different types of data and for varying forecast horizons. The original paper did not contain much interpretation or discussion. Partly this was by design, to be unbiased in the presentation. A more important factor, however, was the difficulty in gaining consensus on interpretation and presentation among the diverse group of authors, many of whom have a vested interest in certain methods. In the belief that this study was of major importance, we decided to obtain a more complete discussion of the results. We do not believe that the data speak for themselves