How short and long term interdependencies have changed due to the global financial crisis

This study investigates how short and long term interdependencies have changed among ten countries grouped into countries from the same region (close geographical proximity) as a result of the recent Global Financial Crisis. A number of econometrics methodologies are employed in doing the analysis. Johansen\u27s cointegration methodology is carried out to assess whether the stock markets have long run interdependencies and whether these interdependencies have changed as a result of the Global Financial Crisis. For the stock markets not cointegrated Granger Causality is carried out to analyze short run interdependencies between pairs of stock markets. Furthermore, generalized Impulse Response Function (GIRF) analysis is carried out to assess the speed at which shocks are fully incorporated by a stock market. Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (GFEVD) is used to assess the most endogenous, least endogenous and most exogenous stock markets. Using Johansen\u27s cointegration method, there is no change in the level of integration and long run interdependencies among the American stock markets, evidenced by the number of co integrating vectors staying the same in all sample periods. For the European stock markets, the level of integration and long run interdependencies increase in comparison to before the crisis. In contrast the level of integration and interdependencies decrease for the Asian stock markets in comparison to before the crisis with no cointegration being present during the GFC and after. Evidence of Granger causality is found between the European stock markets before the crisis but none is found between the Asian stock markets during the GFC and in the post GFC period. The GIRF generally shows a change in responses and a change in the speed at which stock markets incorporate shocks to other stock markets during the GFC period. The GIRF graphs show that the stock markets take longer to fully incorporate the effects of shocks during the GFC in comparison to the pre GFC sample period and post GFC sample period. Lastly the GFEVD analysis finds that there is an increase in the contribution of other markets in explaining shocks to each individual market implying an increase in interdependencies as is found by Worthington & Higgs (2004) as a result of the Asian crisis of 1997 and Masih & Masih (1997) as a result of the October 1987 Crash

Frontier markets, the pre-emerging markets of Africa

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2014.THIS THESIS PROVIDES AN INITIAL INVESTIGATION OF THE EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS AND THE FRONTIER MARKETS IN AFRICA. AN INVESTOR LOOKING TO IMPROVE THE RISK-REWARD BENEFITS OF THEIR PORTFOLIO OUGHT TO INCLUDE THESE SHARES IN A SHARE PORTFOLIO AS EVIDENCED BY THE RESULTS OF THIS THESIS. THIS THESIS SEEKS TO PROVIDE A BRIDGE FOR THE GAP LEFT IN THE ANALYSIS OF AFRICAN MARKETS THROUGH PROVIDING ANSWERS FOR WHETHER AFRICAN EQUITIES PROVIDE THE SO CALLED DIVERSIFICATION EFFECT AND PROVIDE AN INVESTOR WITH HIGHER RETURNS GIVEN THE RISKINESS OF THESE MARKETS

Prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes in anaemic cattle from trypanosomosis challenged areas of Itezhi-tezhi district in central Zambia

BACKGROUND : The measure of anaemia status using packed cell volume (PCV) can be a reliable indicator of African trypanosomosis (AT) in the absence of other anaemia-causing conditions. However, studies that have estimated prevalence of anaemia in cattle from AT endemic areas have rarely reported the prevalence of the disease in the anaemic cattle. Therefore we investigated the prevalence of AT in anaemic cattle at sites that had recently reported the disease in Itezhi tezhi district of central Zambia. METHODS : During a survey, blood samples were collected from 564 randomly selected cattle for anaemia determination from seven crush pens (Mutenda, Kapulwe, Banachoongo, Itumbi, Iyanda, New Ngoma and Shinampamba). At a PCV- value cut off of 26 %, all samples positive for anaemia were subjected to both parasitological examination on thick and thin blood smears and polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) for detection of trypanosome DNA. Fisher’s exact test and a mixed effect logistic regression analyses were used to determine and measures associations, respectively. RESULTS : Of 564 cattle screened, 58 (10.3 %; 95 % CI: 7.8–12.8 %) had anaemia. PCR-RFLP results showed that 17 (29.3 %; 95 % CI; 17.2–41.4 %) anaemic cattle were positive for pathogenic trypanosomes compared to 1 (1.7 %; 95 % CI: 0.0–5.2 %) on parasitological examination using thick smears. The infections were caused by Trypanosoma congolense and Trypanosoma vivax. Fisher’s exact test showed a strong association between PCV and pathogenic trypanosome infection (P = 0.004). A mixed effect multivariate logistic regression showed that a one unit increase in PCV reduced the likelihood of detecting AT with PCR-RFLP by 24.7 % (95 % CI: 4.6–40.6 %; P = 0.019) in anaemic cattle, taking into account their age and sex, with random effects for crush pen. CONCLUSION : These results suggest that T. congolense and T. vivax could be important causes of anaemia in cattle reared in AT endemic areas of Itezhi tezhi in Central Zambia. This also suggests that even though pathogenic trypanosomal infection was strongly associated with PCV, it could only account for up to 41 % of the anaemia in cattle. Therefore further investigation to ascertain other factors responsible for anaemia in AT endemic areas of Itezhi tezhi in Central Zambia is needed.Norad's Programme for Master Studies (NOMA, ref No. 2010/12841) and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) through SIU.http://www.parasitesandvectors.comam201

A Preliminary Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness in Zambia

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is the third leading cause of child death in Zambia. Up to one-third of diarrhea cases resulting in hospitalization and/or death are caused by vaccine-preventable rotavirus. In January 2012, Zambia initiated a pilot introduction of the Rotarix live, oral rotavirus vaccine in all public health facilities in Lusaka Province. METHODS: Between July 2012 and October 2013, we conducted a case-control study at 6 public sector sites to estimate rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) in age-eligible children presenting with diarrhea. We computed the odds of having received at least 1 dose of Rotarix among children whose stool was positive for rotavirus antigen (cases) and children whose stool was negative (controls). We adjusted the resulting odds ratio (OR) for patient age, calendar month of presentation, and clinical site, and expressed VE as (1 - adjusted OR) × 100. RESULTS: A total of 91 rotavirus-positive cases and 298 rotavirus-negative controls who had under-5 card-confirmed vaccination status and were ≥6 months of age were included in the case-control analysis. Among rotavirus-positive children who were age-eligible to be vaccinated, 20% were hospitalized. Against rotavirus diarrhea of all severity, the adjusted 2-dose VE was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], -30% to 58%) among children ≥6 months of age. VE against hospitalized children ≥6 months of age was 56% (95% CI, -34% to 86%). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a higher point estimate for VE against increased severity of illness compared with milder disease, but were not powered to detect a low level of VE against milder disease

Surveillance of molecular markers for antimalarial resistance in Zambia: Polymorphism of Pfkelch 13, Pfmdr1 and Pfdhfr/Pfdhps genes

Antimalarial resistance is an inevitable feature of control efforts and a key threat to achieving malaria elimination. Plasmodium falciparum, the deadliest of several species causing human malaria, has developed resistance to essentially all antimalarials. This study sought to investigate the prevalence of molecular markers associated with resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in Southern and Western provinces in Zambia. SP is used primarily for intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy, while AL is the first-line antimalarial for uncomplicated malaria in Zambia. Blood samples were collected from household members of all ages in a cross-sectional survey conducted during peak malaria transmission, April to May of 2017, and amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Amplicons were then analysed by high-resolution melt following PCR to identify mutations associated with SP resistance in the P. falciparum dihydrofolate reductase (Pfdhfr) and P. falciparum dihydropteroate synthase (Pfdhps) genes and lumefantrine resistance in the P. falciparum multi-drug resistance 1 (Pfmdr1) gene. Finally, artemether resistance was assessed in the P. falciparum Kelch 13 (PfK13) gene using nested PCR followed by amplicon sequencing. The results showed a high frequency of genotypic-resistant Pfdhps A437G (93.2%) and Pfdhfr C59R (86.7%), N51I (80.9%), and S108N (80.8%) of which a high proportion (82.4%) were quadruple mutants (Pfdhfr N51I, C59R, S108N +Pfdhps A437G). Pfmrd1 N86Y, Y186F, and D1246Y - NFD mutant haplotypes were observed in 41.9% of isolates. The high prevalence of quadruple dhps/dhfr mutants indicates strong antifolate drug pressure from SP or other drugs (e.g., co-trimoxazole). Three samples contained PfK13 mutations, two synonymous (T478 and V666) and one non-synonymous (A578S), none of which have been associated with delayed clearance. This suggests that artemisinin remains efficacious in Zambia, however, the moderately high prevalence of approximately 40% Pfmdr1 NFD mutations calls for close monitoring of AL.publishedVersio

Transcriptome profiling, physiological, and biochemical analyses provide new insights towards drought stress response in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) saplings

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) is a temperate tree species in the northeastern parts of the United States and is economically important for its hardwood and syrup production. Sugar maple trees are highly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions, especially drought, so understanding the physiological, biochemical, and molecular responses is critical. The sugar maple saplings were subjected to drought stress for 7, 14, and 21 days and physiological data collected at 7, 14, and 21 days after stress (DAS) showed significantly reduced chlorophyll and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index with increasing drought stress time. The drought stress-induced biochemical changes revealed a higher accumulation of malondialdehyde, proline, and peroxidase activity in response to drought stress. Transcriptome analysis identified a total of 14,099 differentially expressed genes (DEGs); 328 were common among all stress periods. Among the DEGs, transcription factors (including NAC, HSF, ZFPs, GRFs, and ERF), chloroplast-related and stress-responsive genes such as peroxidases, membrane transporters, kinases, and protein detoxifiers were predominant. GO enrichment and KEGG pathway analysis revealed significantly enriched processes related to protein phosphorylation, transmembrane transport, nucleic acids, and metabolic, secondary metabolite biosynthesis pathways, circadian rhythm-plant, and carotenoid biosynthesis in response to drought stress. Time-series transcriptomic analysis revealed changes in gene regulation patterns in eight different clusters, and pathway analysis by individual clusters revealed a hub of stress-responsive pathways. In addition, qRT-PCR validation of selected DEGs revealed that the expression patterns were consistent with transcriptome analysis. The results from this study provide insights into the dynamics of physiological, biochemical, and gene responses to progressive drought stress and reveal the important stress-adaptive mechanisms of sugar maple saplings in response to drought stress

Micronutrient fortification to improve growth and health of maternally HIV-unexposed and exposed Zambian infants: a randomised controlled trial

Background: The period of complementary feeding, starting around 6 months of age, is a time of high risk for growth faltering and morbidity. Low micronutrient density of locally available foods is a common problem in low income countries. Children of HIV-infected women are especially vulnerable. Although antiretroviral prophylaxis can reduce breast milk HIV transmission in early infancy, there are no clear feeding guidelines for after 6 months. There is a need for acceptable, feasible, affordable, sustainable and safe (AFASS by WHO terminology) foods for both HIV-exposed and unexposed children after 6 months of age. Methods and Findings: We conducted in Lusaka, Zambia, a randomised double-blind trial of two locally made infant foods: porridges made of flour composed of maize, beans, bambaranuts and groundnuts. One flour contained a basal and the other a rich level of micronutrient fortification. Infants (n = 743) aged 6 months were randomised to receive either regime for 12 months. The primary outcome was stunting (length-for-age Z < -2) at age 18 months. No significant differences were seen between trial arms overall in proportion stunted at 18 months (adjusted odds ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.50, 1.53; P = 0.63), mean length-for-age Z score, or rate of hospital referral or death. Among children of HIV-infected mothers who breastfed <6 months (53% of HIV-infected mothers), the richly-fortified porridge increased length-for-age and reduced stunting (adjusted odds ratio 0.17; 95% CI 0.04, 0.84; P = 0.03). Rich fortification improved iron status at 18 months as measured by hemoglobin, ferritin and serum transferrin receptors. Conclusions: In the whole study population, the rich micronutrient fortification did not reduce stunting or hospital referral but did improve iron status and reduce anemia. Importantly, in the infants of HIV-infected mothers who stopped breastfeeding before 6 months, the rich fortification improved linear growth. Provision of such fortified foods may benefit health of these high risk infants

Effectiveness of Non-nucleoside Reverse-Transcriptase Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Therapy in Women Previously Exposed to a Single Intrapartum Dose of Nevirapine: A Multi-country, Prospective Cohort Study

In a comparative cohort study, Jeffrey Stringer and colleagues investigate the risk of ART failure in women who received single-dose nevirapine for PMTCT, and assess the duration of increased risk

International education assistance to higher education development in Zambia: Problems, policy implications and future prospects

This is a study of international assistance to education from developed to developing countries during the past three decades. The purpose of this study was to analyze and evaluate the role of foreign aid to higher education in developing countries with particular reference to Zambia. The analysis aimed at examining the benefits, problems as well as policy implications and changes in the process of giving and receiving foreign aid. Emphasis was placed on the objectives, functions, consequences of foreign aid, and the best ways to utilize aid, considering the high costs and returns to educational investments in developing countries.Pertinent documents were received from donor agencies, government departments and higher education institutions. Conclusions were drawn on various issues related to the role of aid in the development and financing of higher education especially in relation to priorities and policy issues. The findings show that foreign aid has played a substantial role in higher education financing through money expended, technical assistance, fellowships, technology, and other aspects of aid.There are however problems associated with receiving and using aid funds due to the unequal relations between donors and recipients. In a country like Zambia, the economy is in crisis compounded by problems like high population growth rates, drop in copper prices (the sole foreign exchange earner), and problems associated with debt servicing. In view of these problems, alternative means of financing higher education are appropriate in order to reduce dependence on aid and to reduce the astronomical unit costs of financing higher education in Zambia. Alternatives include charging user fees, levying an education tax, provision of study loans to qualifying students and other measures aimed at efficient use of resources.As far as aid utilization in future is concerned, recommendations were made to make it more effective socially, politically, culturally and economically. Other recommendations include improved coordination, employing qualified Zambians on all foreign aid projects and emphasizing alternative means of financing higher education in order to reduce dependence on foreign aid. The study provides a critical review of aid, but cautions against the tendency to blame foreign aid for all the economic development problems and failures. In analyzing and evaluating the role of foreign aid, the problems, successes and failures should be viewed in relation to the internal structural problems as well as social and economic policies.Although most comments and implications in the study refer to the Zambian situation, the author thinks that they are a representative example of the pervasive issues and problems inherent in the aid process. It is therefore concluded that the findings, recommendations and conclusions are in many ways applicable to what one would find in many developing countries implementing a variety of foreign aid projects especially in sub-Saharan Africa.U of I OnlyETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permissio

Human mobility and factors associated with malaria importation in Lusaka district, Zambia: a descriptive cross sectional study

Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Zambia with an estimated 4 million confirmed cases and 2389 deaths reported in 2015. Efforts to reduce the incidence of malaria are often undermined by a number of factors such as human mobility which may lead to introduction of imported infections. The aim of this study was to establish the burden of malaria attributed to human mobility in Lusaka district and identify factors associated with malaria importation among residents of Lusaka district. Methods A cross sectional study was conducted in five randomly selected health facilities in Lusaka district from November 2015 to February 2016. Data was collected from 260 patients who presented with malaria and whose status was confirmed by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy. Each confirmed malaria case was interviewed using a structured questionnaire to establish their demographic characteristics, travel history and preventive measures. Travel history was used as a proxy to classify cases as either imported or local. Residency was also used as a secondary proxy for importation to compare characteristics of residents vs non-residents in relation to malaria importation. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with malaria importation among residents of Lusaka district. Results Out of 260 cases, 94.2% were classified as imported cases based on participants’ travel history. There were 131 (50.4%) males and 129 (49.6%) females. Age distribution ranged from 0 to 68 years with a median age of 15 years (IQR 8–27). Imported cases came from all the ten provinces of Zambia with the Copperbelt Province being the highest contributor (41%). Of all imported cases, use of prophylaxis was found to be highly protective [AOR = 0.22 (95% CI 0.06–0.82); p-value = 0.024]. Other factors that significantly influence malaria transmission and importation by residents include duration of stay in a highly endemic region [AOR = 1.25 (95% CI 1.09–1.44); p-value = 0.001] and frequency of travel [AOR = 3.71 (95% CI 1.26–10.84); p-value = 0.017]. Conclusion Human mobility has influenced malaria transmission in Lusaka district through a number of factors by importing infections. This leads to onward transmission and poses a challenge to malaria elimination and control. However, taking of prophylaxis is highly protective and must be highly recommended