Exploring Deep-Sea Minerals : Systems modeling for an emerging industry and unknown futures

Dyphavsmineraler er et omdiskutert tema. I tilsvar til befolknings- og økonomisk vekst, i tillegg til etterspørselen fra elektrifisering, teknologisk revolusjon og geopolitisk urolighet, er verden forventet å etterspørre en betydelig større, og betydelig mer diversifisert tilgang til kritiske mineraler. Dyphavs mineraler har lenge blitt sett på som en alternativ kilde til veletablerte, men ujevnt geografisk fordelte mineralressurser på land. Samtidig vil uthenting av mineraler i dyphavet kunne bety en industrielt skalert forstyrrelse av et miljø man i varierende grad forstår, og fullt ut kan vurdere konsekvensene av. Denne avhandlingen utforsker og belyser hvordan en mineral-industri på dyphavet vil kunne foregå og bidrar med en basis for kvalifiserte beslutninger og fornuftig politikk-utvikling i den veldig usikre, og veldig tidskritiske sfæren som utgjør dyphavsmineraler. Dette gjøres ved først å fremlegge en flerdimensjonal problem-definisjon for dyphavsmineralindustri, og dernest, med utgangspunkt i stokastisk dynamisk optimering, diskuteres underliggende årsaker for hvorfor dyphavsmineraler kan vokse frem som industri. Avslutningsvis, med utgangspunkt i stokastisk System Dynamikk modellering og simulering av tilfellet «dyphavsmineraler i norsk farvann», vurderer denne avhandlingen hvordan slik aktivitet vil utarte i Norskehavet, og hvor innovasjon og utvikling bør fokuseres for å danne grunnlag for en robust industri i en usikker virkelighet. Denne avhandlingen bidrar med en aggregert, multidimensional, og system orientert problemdefinisjon for dyphavsmineralindustri. Den bidrar modeller og analyse som avkoder effekten av ulike økonomiske faktorer som kan akselerere, eller bremse, en overgang til dyphavs mineraler. Videre bidrar denne avhandlingen med en syntese for mineral industri i Norsk farvann, så vel som et mulig økonomisk rammeverk, og det mest lovende området for innovasjon og utvikling for denne industrien. Avhandlingen konkluderer videre med, på tross av epistemisk usikkerhet, at det er det er tydelige underliggende årsaker for at en mineralindustri på dyphavet vil kunne vokse frem, og at det er rasjonelle argumenter for å understøtte en slik utvikling. Avhandlingen konkluderer videre at dyphavsmineraler kan vise seg både profitabelt eller ikke, og at dette avhenger av innovasjonsstrategi, geopolitiske, miljømessige og klimamessige hensyn, men først og fremst av evnen til å navigere innen epistemisk usikkerhet.Deep-sea mining sparks heated debate. In response to population- and economic growth, as well as to the demands of electrification, technological shifts, and geopolitical turmoil, the world is projected to require a substantially increased and diversified supply of critical minerals. Deep-sea minerals and deep-sea mining have long been considered an alternative resource to established and asymmetrically distributed terrestrial identified mineral resources. However, deep-sea mining entails industrial-scale intervention in a poorly understood environment with equally opaque consequences. This Thesis explores how deep-sea mining may unfold and contributes a basis for qualified decisions and sound policy design in the very uncertain and very urgent realm of deep-sea mining. This is done by first providing a multidimensional problem definition for deep-sea mining. Then, with analysis drawn from stochastic dynamic optimization, underlying reasons deep-sea mining may emerge as an industry are discussed. Finally, based on stochastic System Dynamics modelling and simulation, the Thesis considers how such an industry may unfold on the Norwegian continental shelf and how such an industry may innovate to become robust in an uncertain environment. The Thesis contributes an aggregated, multidimensional, systems-based deep-sea mining problem definition. It contributes models and analysis deciphering the potency of different economic factors that may drive or inhibit a transition towards deep-sea mining. It further contributes a synthesis of the emerging deep-sea mining industry in Norwegian waters, its potential economic framework, and its most auspicious room for innovation and development. The Thesis concludes that deep-sea mining may indeed be encouraged to emerge despite epistemic uncertainty and that there are valid reasons for such emergence. The Thesis further concludes that the emergence of deep-sea mining could prove either profitable or not, depending on innovation policies, geopolitical climatic and environmental priorities, and, most importantly, the qualified navigation of epistemic uncertainty.Doktorgradsavhandlin

Reserve-dependent capital efficiency, cross-sector competition, and mineral security considerations in mineral industry transition

This study pinpoints three current factors that could be momentous in a possible transition to marine mining, namely reserve-dependent capital efficiency (accessibility and grade-dependent output per unit capital), cross-sector competition (competition between two separate mining sectors), and asymmetric mineral security considerations (e.g., the resource owner(s) and government(s) tied to a sector desires production for profit and security reasons). Moreover, four conceptual optimization problems are explored to specify the potential roles of said factors in a possible transition. The first problem considers a principal agent, who make decisions on behalf of resource owner(s), government(s) and producer(s), and invests and extracts to maximize the net present value of extraction from onshore and offshore reserves while facing reserve-independent capital efficiency. The second problem considers the same as the first, except here, the principal meets reserve-dependent capital efficiency. The third problem considers two principals, each representing resource owner(s), government(s), and producer(s) tied to a sector, who invest and extract to maximize the net present value of extraction from the respective reserves subject to the decisions of the other principal. Finally, the last problem considers a duopoly setting in which the marine principal values both financial gain and mineral security. The results illustrate that reserve-dependent capital efficiency, cross-sector competition, and mineral security considerations can, in different ways, drive a possible transition to marine mining. Possible counter effective factors are highlighted and discussed.publishedVersio

Perspectives on exploration and extraction of seafloor massive sulfide deposits in Norwegian waters

We present a stochastic dynamic simulation model for exploration and extraction of seafloor massive sulfide (SMS) mineral deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The model is developed based on selected industry knowledge, expectations, and perceptions elicited through a participatory systems mapping session with 82 participants and 20 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, academia, and the public policy sector. Using the model, we simulate the expected ranges of resource- and economic potential. The simulation results indicate an expected commercial resource base of 1.8 to 3 million tons of copper, zinc, and cobalt, in which copper makes out the most significant part. Relating to the expected commercial resource base, we highlight a discrepancy between academic and industrial expectations, in which the academic expectations are more conservative than the industrial expectations. The corresponding net present values lie in the range of a net present loss of 970 million USD up to a net present gain of 2.53 billion USD, in which the academic expectations are projected to yield a negative net present value, while the industrial expectations are projected to yield a positive net present value. Closer investigation of the results reveals that one of the main challenges regarding SMS exploration and extraction is the initial exploration costs associated with coring operations. These costs are expected to be high with today’s exploration technology. Moreover, they occur relatively early in time compared to revenue-generating activity, which has a significant negative impact on the net present value of the industry due to discounting. Thus, a key focus of the industry should be to find ways to reduce the costs associated with coring operations and/or the time it takes from initial exploration to extraction and generation of revenue.publishedVersio

The effect of a leisure time physical activity intervention delivered via a workplace. 15-Month Follow-Up Study

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Reflections on adapting group model building scripts into online workshops

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Shift Work Including Night Work and Long Working Hours in Industrial Plants Increases the Risk of Atherosclerosis

There is an abundance of literature reporting an association between shift work and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Few studies have examined early manifestation of CVD using advanced modern methodology. We established a group of 65 shift workers and 29 day workers (controls) in two industrial plants. For the shift workers, the shift schedule includes rotating shifts with day, evening and nightshifts, some day and nightshifts lasting for 12 h. The current paper describes cross-sectional data in a study running for three years. We collected background data by questionnaire and measured blood pressure, heart rate, lipids, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and C-reactive protein (CRP). We examined arterial stiffness (central blood pressure, augmentation pressure and index, and pulse wave velocity) by the use of SphygmoCor® (AtCor Medical Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia) and the carotid arteries by ultrasound. We assessed VO2max by bicycle ergometry. We applied linear and logistic regression to evaluate associations between total number of years in shift work and cardiovascular outcome measures. The day workers were older and had more pronounced arterial stiffness compared to the shift workers. Number of years as a shift worker was associated with increased carotid intima media thickness (max IMT) (B = 0.015, p = 0.009) and an elevated CRP (B = 0.06, p = 0.03). Within the normal range for this age group, VO2max was 41 (9) ml/kg/min. Rotating shift work including day and night shifts lasting up to 12 h and evening shifts are associated with CVD-risk factors. This could imply an increased risk for coronary heart disease and stroke among these workers. Therefore, preventive measures should be considered for these groups of workers in order to prevent such diseases.publishedVersio