Model-robust regression and a Bayesian ``sandwich'' estimator

We present a new Bayesian approach to model-robust linear regression that leads to uncertainty estimates with the same robustness properties as the Huber--White sandwich estimator. The sandwich estimator is known to provide asymptotically correct frequentist inference, even when standard modeling assumptions such as linearity and homoscedasticity in the data-generating mechanism are violated. Our derivation provides a compelling Bayesian justification for using this simple and popular tool, and it also clarifies what is being estimated when the data-generating mechanism is not linear. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach using a simulation study and health care cost data from an evaluation of the Washington State Basic Health Plan.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS362 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Conceptualizing a Future for Library Classification

This paper traces the roots of the positivist epistemology of librarianship; its ideals of neutrality and access as they intersect in the classification and assignment of library subject headings; and the notion of the author as it relates to the creation of library authority files. By legitimizing their own professional neutrality, librarians have wielded tremendous power over what libraries collect as well as how those works are represented, but have done so with little self-reflection. The act of classifying works and assigning subject headings is not a neutral process. It is time for librarians to use new tools such as the RDA standards to hold academic libraries accountable for assessing their collections to ensure they represent the diversity of voices that comprise the full record and collective history of our culture

Manifestations of Drag Reduction by Polymer Additives in Decaying, Homogeneous, Isotropic Turbulence

The existence of drag reduction by polymer additives, well established for wall-bounded turbulent flows, is controversial in homogeneous, isotropic turbulence. To settle this controversy we carry out a high-resolution direct numerical simulation (DNS) of decaying, homogeneous, isotropic turbulence with polymer additives. Our study reveals clear manifestations of drag-reduction-type phenomena: On the addition of polymers to the turbulent fluid we obtain a reduction in the energy dissipation rate, a significant modification of the fluid energy spectrum especially in the deep-dissipation range, a suppression of small-scale intermittency, and a decrease in small-scale vorticity filaments.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Hydrogen solubility in zirconium intermetallic second phase particles

The enthalpies of solution of H in Zr binary intermetallic compounds formed with Cu, Cr, Fe, Mo, Ni, Nb, Sn and V were calculated by means of density functional theory simulations and compared to that of H in {\alpha}-Zr. It is predicted that all Zr-rich phases (formed with Cu, Fe, Ni and Sn), and those phases formed with Nb and V, offer lower energy, more stable sites for H than {\alpha}-Zr. Conversely, Mo and Cr containing phases do not provide preferential solution sites for H. In all cases the most stable site for H are those that offer the highest coordination fraction of Zr atoms. Often these are four Zr tetrahedra but not always. Implications with respect to H-trapping properties of commonly observed ternary phases such as Zr(Cr,Fe)2, Zr2(Fe,Ni) and Zr(Nb,Fe)2 are also discussed.Comment: manuscript accepted for publication in Journal of Nuclear Materials (2013

Diagnostic performance of imaging investigations in detecting and differentiating cardiac amyloidosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS: The study aims to systematically assess the diagnostic performance of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and nuclear scintigraphy (index tests) for the diagnosis and differentiation of subtypes of cardiac amyloidosis. // METHODS AND RESULTS: MEDLINE and Embase electronic databases were searched for studies evaluating the diagnostic performance of CMR or nuclear scintigraphy in detecting cardiac amyloidosis and subsequently in differentiating transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR) from immunoglobulin light-chain (AL) amyloidosis. In this meta-analysis, histopathological examination of tissue from endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) or extra-cardiac organs were reference standards. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated, and a random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate diagnostic odds ratios. Methodological quality was assessed using a validated instrument. Of the 2947 studies identified, 27 met the criteria for inclusion. Sensitivity and specificity of CMR in diagnosing cardiac amyloidosis was 85.7% and 92.0% against EMB reference and 78.9% and 93.9% with any organ histology reference. Corresponding sensitivity and specificity of nuclear scintigraphy was 88.4% and 87.2% against EMB reference and 82.0% and 98.8% with histology from any organ. CMR was unable to reliably differentiate ATTR from AL amyloidosis (sensitivity 28.1-99.0% and specificity 11.0-60.0%). Sensitivity and specificity of nuclear scintigraphy in the differentiation of ATTR from AL amyloidosis ranged from 90.9% to 91.5% and from 88.6% to 97.1%. Pooled negative likelihood ratio and positive likelihood ratio for scintigraphy in this setting were 0.1 and 8, with EMB reference standard. Study quality assessed by QUADAS-2 was generally poor with evidence of bias. // CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac magnetic resonance is a useful test for diagnosing cardiac amyloidosis but is not reliable in further classifying the disease. Nuclear scintigraphy offers strong diagnostic performance in both the detection of cardiac amyloidosis and differentiating ATTR from AL amyloidosis. Our findings support the use of both imaging modalities in a non-invasive diagnostic algorithm that also tests for the presence of monoclonal protein

Toward a structural understanding of turbulent drag reduction: nonlinear coherent states in viscoelastic shear flows

Nontrivial steady flows have recently been found that capture the main structures of the turbulent buffer layer. We study the effects of polymer addition on these "exact coherent states" (ECS) in plane Couette flow. Despite the simplicity of the ECS flows, these effects closely mirror those observed experimentally: Structures shift to larger length scales, wall-normal fluctuations are suppressed while streamwise ones are enhanced, and drag is reduced. The mechanism underlying these effects is elucidated. These results suggest that the ECS are closely related to buffer layer turbulence.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, published version, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 208301 (2002

Trading Bias for Precision: Decision Theory for Intervals and Sets

Interval- and set-valued decisions are an essential part of statistical inference. Despite this, the justification behind them is often unclear, leading in practice to a great deal of confusion about exactly what is being presented. In this paper we review and attempt to unify several competing methods of interval-construction, within a formal decision-theoretic framework. The result is a new emphasis on interval-estimation as a distinct goal, and not as an afterthought to point estimation. We also see that representing intervals as trade-offs between measures of precision and bias unifies many existing approaches -- as well as suggesting interpretable criteria to calibrate this trade-off. The novel statistical arguments produced allow many extensions, and we apply these to resolve several outstanding areas of disagreement between Bayesians and frequentists

Model-Robust Bayesian Regression and the Sandwich Estimator

PLEASE NOTE THAT AN UPDATED VERSION OF THIS RESEARCH IS AVAILABLE AS WORKING PAPER 338 IN THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON BIOSTATISTICS WORKING PAPER SERIES (http://www.bepress.com/uwbiostat/paper338). In applied regression problems there is often sufficient data for accurate estimation, but standard parametric models do not accurately describe the source of the data, so associated uncertainty estimates are not reliable. We describe a simple Bayesian approach to inference in linear regression that recovers least-squares point estimates while providing correct uncertainty bounds by explicitly recognizing that standard modeling assumptions need not be valid. Our model-robust development parallels frequentist estimating equations and leads to intervals with the same robustness properties as the ’sandwich’ estimator

Direct numerical simulations of statistically steady, homogeneous, isotropic fluid turbulence with polymer additives

We carry out a direct numerical simulation (DNS) study that reveals the effects of polymers on statistically steady, forced, homogeneous, isotropic fluid turbulence. We find clear manifestations of dissipation-reduction phenomena: On the addition of polymers to the turbulent fluid, we obtain a reduction in the energy dissipation rate, a significant modification of the fluid energy spectrum, especially in the deep-dissipation range, a suppression of small-scale intermittency, and a decrease in small-scale vorticity filaments. We also compare our results with recent experiments and earlier DNS studies of decaying fluid turbulence with polymer additives.Comment: consistent with the published versio