Long-term Effects of Famine on Life Expectancy: A Re-analysis of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-1868

Famines are extreme cases of environmental stress, and have been used by a series of studies to explore the long-term consequences of the fetal or childhood environment. Results are inconsistent and do not support negative long-term effects on mortality. The authors test the hypothesis that selection during famine changes the frailty distributions of cohorts and may hide negative long-term effects. They use death counts from age 60+ from the Human Mortality Data Base for the birth cohorts 1850-1854, 1855-1859, 1860-1865, 1866-1868, 1869-1874, 1875-1879, 1880-1884 and 1885-1889 to explore the effect of being born during the Great Finnish Famine 1866-1868. Swedish cohorts without famine exposure are analysed as a control group. Cohorts born in Finland during the Great Finnish Famine are highly heterogeneous in their distribution of deaths after age 60. By contrast, cohorts born in the years immediately after the famine are particularly homogeneous. Accounting for these differences results into a lower remaining life expectancy at age 60 for cohorts born during the famine. Statistically, long-term effects of famine on mortality become only visible when changes in the frailty distribution of cohorts are explicitly considered.old-age mortality, selection, debilitation, early life circumstances

Physical and psychological health at adolescence and home care use later in life

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relation between physical and psychological health indicators at adolescence (age 18) and household, personal, and nursing home care use later in life at ages 57–69 years. METHODS: Using medical examinations on men born in 1944–1947 who were evaluated for military service at age 18 in the Netherlands, we link physical and psychological health assessments to national administrative microdata on the use of home care services at ages 57–69 years. We postulate a panel probit model for home care use over these years. In the analyses, we account for selective survival through correlated panel probit models. RESULTS: Poor mental health and being overweight at age 18 are important predictors of later life home care use. Home care use at ages 57–69 years is also highly related to and interacts with father’s socioeconomic status and recruits’ education at age 18. DISCUSSION: Specific health characteristics identified at age 18 are highly related to the later utilization of home-care at age 57–69 years. Some characteristics may be amenable to early life health interventions to decrease the future costs of long-term home care

Gains in Life Expectancy Associated with Higher Education in Men

Background: Many studies show large differences in life expectancy across the range of education, intelligence, and socio-economic status. As educational attainment, intelligence, and socio-economic status are highly interrelated, appropriate methods are required to disentangle their separate effects. The aim of this paper is to present a novel method to estimate gains in life expectancy specifically associated with increased education. Our analysis is based on a structural model in which education level, IQ at age 18 and mortality all depend on (latent) intelligence. The model allows for (selective) educational choices based on observed factors and on an unobserved factor capturing intelligence. Our estimates are based on information from health examinations of military conscripts born in 1944–1947 in The Netherlands and their vital status through age 66 (n = 39,798). Results: Our empirical results show that men with higher education have lower mortality. Using structural models to account for education choice, the estimated gain in life expectancy for men moving up one educational level ranges from 0.3 to 2 years. The estimated gain in months alive over the observational period ranges from -1.2 to 5.7 months. The selection effect is positive and amounts to a gain of one to two months. Decomposition of the selection effect shows that the gain from selection on (latent) intelligence is larger than the gain from selection on observed factors and amounts to 1.0 to 1.7 additional months alive. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the strong selection into education based on socio-economic status and intelligence. They also show significant higher life expectancy among individuals with higher education after the selectivity of education choice has been taken into account. Based on these estimates, it is plausible therefore that increases in education could lead to increases in life expectancy

Parakeets, canaries, finches, parrots and lung cancer: no association.

The relationship between pet bird keeping and lung cancer according to exposure to tobacco smoking was investigated in a case-control study in hospitals of New York City and Washington, DC, USA. Newly diagnosed lung cancer cases (n = 887) aged 40-79 years were compared with 1350 controls with diseases not related to smoking, of the same age, gender and date of admission as the cases. The prevalence of pet bird keeping was 12.5% in men and 19.1% in women. There was no association between ever keeping a pet bird and lung cancer in never smokers (men adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.70, 95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.15-3.17; women, 1.32, 95% Cl 0.65-2.70), or in smokers and non-smokers combined, after adjustment for ever smoking (men: 1.28, 95% Cl 0.88-1.86; women: 1.17, 95% Cl 0.83-1.64; all: 1.21, 95% Cl 0.95-1.56). Risk did not increase in relation to duration of pet bird keeping. Cases and controls kept similar types of birds. There was a tenfold increase of lung cancer risk associated with smoking among non-bird keepers (adjusted OR = 9.15). There was no indication of a synergism, either additive or multiplicative, between smoking and pet bird keeping with respect to lung cancer risk. Either alone or in conjunction with smoking, keeping parakeets, canaries, finches or parrots is not a risk factor for lung cancer among hospital patients in New York and in Washington, DC

War- and famine-related excess mortality among civilians in the Netherlands, 1944-1945

National estimates exist for war- and famine-related deaths in the Netherlands during the last stages of World War II, but no such estimates are available at the local level. To fill this information gap, this article aims at mapping and visualizing the timing of war- and famine-related excess mortality by municipality among the civilian population within the Netherlands. We use mortality statistics at the level of municipalities because these are the smallest administrative units for which this information is available. We use a seasonally adjusted mortality model combined with a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the number of excess deaths in the period between January 1944 and July 1945 separately for each Dutch municipality

Impact of disease screening on awareness and management of hypertension and diabetes between 2011 and 2015: results from the China health and retirement longitudinal study

Background There has been a limited recognition of hypertension and diabetes in China which has compromised optimal treatment. It is not clear if a screening program implemented by a national health survey has improved awareness and management of these conditions. Methods The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) is an ongoing longitudinal health survey conducted since 2011 among Chinese people aged 45 years and older. Participants have been assessed every two years by interviews, physical examinations, and fasting glucose samples were taken in 2011. In 2013 and 2015, participants were asked about awareness and management of selected chronic diseases, and they first became aware of these conditions. Results Of the 11,000+ participants screened in 2011, 4594 were identified with hypertension and 1703 with diabetes by medical examinations. Over 80% of the middle-aged and elderly Chinese diagnosed with hypertension and/or diabetes in 2011 reported in 2015 that they were unaware of the disease(s). Although some improvement was observed between 2011 and 2015, the main reason for the increase in awareness was a medical examination initiated by the study participant (over 75%), by their work unit or community (12–15%), and rarely (less than 3%) by the CHARLS examination. Participants with a rural household registration status and lower BMI were the most likely to be unaware and to remain unaware of their condition(s). Conclusions Disease screening in CHARLS did not lead to significant improvements in awareness of hypertension and diabetes. Improvements should be made by the systematic feedback of screening results to survey participants and the monitoring of disease awareness over time. This will be essential to improve disease recognition and facilitate optimal management

Особенности формирования изотопно-модифицированных частиц в плазме в условиях постоянного магнитного поля

Цель работы – исследование влияния внешнего постоянного слабого магнитного поля на размеры наночастиц, формируемых в газовой фазе в результате лазерного пробоя из подложки из оксидной керамики. В результате исследования построена феноменологическая модель протекающих процессов и проведен анализ размеров микрочастиц для верификации теории.The aim of this work is studying the effect of an external constant weak magnetic field on the size of nanoparticles formed in the gas phase as a result of laser-induced breakdown from an oxide ceramic substrate. As a result of the research, a phenomenological model of the processes was created and the size of microparticles was analyzed to verify the theory