Analyzing Child Mortality in Nigeria with Geoadditive Survival Models

Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In developing countries, mortality rates are not only influenced by socio-economic, demographic and health variables but they also vary considerably across regions and districts. In this paper, we analyze child mortality in Nigeria with flexible geoadditive survival models. This class of models allows to measure small-area district-specific spatial effects simultaneously with possibly nonlinear or time-varying effects of other factors. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The application is based on the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Our method assesses effects at a high level of temporal and spatial resolution not available with traditional parametric models

Prediction of thermal radiation from a rocket's exhaust plume

Data from absorption coefficients and fine-structure parameters measured for water vapor have been incorporated in an analytic program useful in evaluating heating by radiation from the exhaust plume of a large rocket

3D Simulation of Convection and Spectral Line Formation in A-type Stars

We present first realistic numerical simulations of 3D radiative convection in the surface layers of main sequence A-type stars with Teff = 8000 K and 8500 K, log g = 4.4 and 4.0, recently performed with the CO5BOLD radiation hydrodynamics code. The resulting models are used to investigate the structure of the H+HeI and the HeII convection zones in comparison with the predictions of local and non-local convection theories, and to determine the amount of "overshoot" into the stable layers below the HeII convection zone. The simulations also predict how the topology of the photospheric granulation pattern changes from solar to A-type star convection. The influence of the photospheric temperature fluctuations and velocity fields on the shape of spectral lines is demonstrated by computing synthetic line profiles and line bisectors for some representative examples, allowing us to confront the 3D model results with observations.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures (17 figure files), 1 Tabl

Using different groups of technological progress as input for sector modeling

This poster aims at describing different groups of technology use within a farm population and at delivering realistic prognoses of their future status as input for sector modeling. This because sector models are in many cases not based on reasonable technological progress estimations or too simplified as normative estimation or seen as mere extrapolation of past evolutions. The classification and utilization of technology groups is done for livestock activities, but illustrated hereafter for the finishing pigs activities. The research is worked out in three phases: • Organizational aspects of tuning information demand and supply; • Identification of technology groups; • Evolution of technology groups. Following techniques are used to identify the technology groups: Stochastic frontier analysis, cluster analysis and others. The results can be used in sector models to measure the impact of induced innovation on different technology groups.technology, sector modeling, induced innovation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Spectroscopic properties of a two-dimensional time-dependent Cepheid model I. Description and validation of the model

Standard spectroscopic analyses of Cepheid variables are based on hydrostatic one-dimensional model atmospheres, with convection treated using various formulations of mixing-length theory. This paper aims to carry out an investigation of the validity of the quasi-static approximation in the context of pulsating stars. We check the adequacy of a two-dimensional time-dependent model of a Cepheid-like variable with focus on its spectroscopic properties. With the radiation-hydrodynamics code CO5BOLD, we construct a two-dimensional time-dependent envelope model of a Cepheid with $T_\mathrm{eff}= 5600$ K, $\log g=2.0$, solar metallicity, and a 2.8-day pulsation period. Subsequently, we perform extensive spectral syntheses of a set of artificial iron lines in local thermodynamic equilibrium. The set of lines allows us to systematically study effects of line strength, ionization stage, and excitation potential. We evaluate the microturbulent velocity, line asymmetry, projection factor, and Doppler shifts. The mean Doppler shift is non-zero and negative, -1 km/s, after averaging over several full periods and lines. This residual line-of-sight velocity (related to the "K-term") is primarily caused by horizontal inhomogeneities, and consequently we interpret it as the familiar convective blueshift ubiquitously present in non-pulsating late-type stars. Limited statistics prevent firm conclusions on the line asymmetries. Our two-dimensional model provides a reasonably accurate representation of the spectroscopic properties of a short-period Cepheid-like variable star. Some properties are primarily controlled by convective inhomogeneities rather than by the Cepheid-defining pulsations

Hydrodynamical model atmospheres and 3D spectral synthesis

We discuss three issues in the context of three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamical model atmospheres for late-type stars, related to spectral line shifts, radiative transfer in metal-poor 3D models, and the solar oxygen abundance. We include a brief overview about the model construction, taking the radiation-hydrodynamics code CO5BOLD (COnservative COde for the COmputation of COmpressible COnvection in a BOx of L Dimensions with L=2,3) and the related spectral synthesis package Linfor3D as examples.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, to appear in the Proceedings of the ESO/Lisbon/Aveiro Workshop "Precision Spectroscopy in Astrophysics", eds. L. Pasquini, M. Romaniello, N.C. Santos, and A. Correi

Study of air pollutant detection by remote sensors

Air pollution detection using satellite observatio

Determination of aerosol content in the atmosphere from ERTS-1 data

The author has identified the following significant results. Significant results, relating the radiance over water surfaces to the atmospheric aerosol content, have been obtained. The results indicate that the MSS channels 4, 5, and 6 centered at 0.55, 0.65, and 0.75 microns have comparable sensitivity, and that the aerosol content can be determined within + or - 10% with the assumed measurement errors of the MSS. The fourth channel, MSS 7, is not useful for aerosol determination due to the water radiance values from this channel generally being less than the instrument noise. The accuracy of the aerosol content measurement could be increased by using an instrument specifically designed for this purpose. This radiance-aerosol content relationship can possibly provide a basis for monitoring the atmospheric aerosol content on a global basis, allowing a base-line value of aerosols to be established. The contrast-aerosol content investigation shows useful linear relationships in MSS channels 4 and 5, allowing the aerosol content to be determined within + or - 10%. MSS 7 is not useful due to the low accuracy in the water radiance, and MSS 6 is found to be too insensitive. These results rely on several assumptions due to the lack of ground truth data, but do serve to indicate which channels are most useful

Geoadditive latent variable modelling of count data on multiple sexual partnering in Nigeria

The 2005 National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey in Nigeria provides evidence that multiple sexual partnering increases the risk of contracting HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases. Therefore, partner reduction is one of the prevention strategies to accomplish the Millenium development goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS. In order to explore possible association between sexual partnering and some risk factors, this paper utilizes a novel Bayesian geoadditive latent variable model for count outcomes. This allows us to simultaneously analyze linear and nonlinear effects of covariates as well as spatial variations of one or more latent variables, such as attitude towards multiple partnering, which in turn directly influences the multivariate observable outcomes or indicators. Influence of demographic factors such as age, gender, locality, state of residence, educational attainment, etc., and knowledge about HIV/AIDS on attitude towards multiple partnering is also investigated. Results can provide insights to policy makers with the aim of reducing the spread of HIV and AIDS among the Nigerian populace through partner reduction.factor loading; geographical variations; latent variable model; MCMC; Nigeria; semiparametric Poisson model

Bayesian Geoadditive Seemingly Unrelated Regression

Parametric seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models are a common tool for multivariate regression analysis when error variables are reasonably correlated, so that separate univariate analysis may result in inefficient estimates of covariate effects. A weakness of parametric models is that they require strong assumptions on the functional form of possibly nonlinear effects of metrical covariates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian semiparametric SUR model, where the usual linear predictors are replaced by more flexible additive predictors allowing for simultaneous nonparametric estimation of such covariate effects and of spatial effects. The approach is based on appropriate smoothness priors which allow different forms and degrees of smoothness in a general framework. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques