Debt Non-Neutrality, Policy Interactions, and Macroeconomic Stability

We study the consequences of non-neutrality of government debt with respect to aggregate demand for short-run macroeconomic stability and for fiscal-monetary policy interactions in an environment where prices are sticky. Assuming either transaction services of government bonds or partial debt repayments, Ricardian equivalence fails because public debt has a negative impact on its total rate of return and thus on private savings. Equilibrium stability then requires real public debt to be stationary, which steers future expectations about prices and output, and rules out self-fulfilling expectations. Under aggressive anti-inflationary monetary policy regimes, macroeconomic fluctuations can then decrease with the share of tax financing. In particular, a balanced budget policy stabilizes the economy under cost-push shocks such that output and inflation variances can be lower than in a corresponding framework where debt is neutral.Government debt, fiscal and monetary policy rules, stabilization policy, equilibrium uniqueness

Optimierter Backtest für praxisrelevante Mehlbeurteilung – am Beispiel von Ökoweizen

In jüngster Zeit wurden Weizensorten aus ökologischer Züchtung mit hohen Kleberqualitäten eingeführt, die zunehmend an Marktbedeutung gewinnen. Mit den bisher üblichen, in der Praxis etablierten Backversuchen, wie dem Rapid-Mix-Test (RMT) werden jedoch potenzielle Backeigenschaften von Weizenmehlen vielfach unterbewertet. Zu diesem Ergebnis kommt ein Forschungsvorhaben, gefördert im Rahmen des Bundesprogramms Ökologischer Landbau und andere Formen nachhaltiger Landwirtschaft (BÖLN). Mithilfe eines optimierten Backtests, der im Forschungsring e. V. für biologisch-dynamische Wirtschaftsweise in Darmstadt unter Leitung von Dr. Ludger Linnemann entwickelt wurde, ist ein zuverlässiger Nachweis der potenziellen Verarbeitungsqualität gelungen: Der optimierte Backtest ergab etwa 30% höhere Brotvolumina gegenüber den Ergebnissen mit dem RMT. „Mühle + Mischfutter“ im Gespräch hierzu mit Dr. Linnemann

Kriterien für den Anbau von Weizen Rubrik Forschung Forschung aus biologisch-dynamischer Züchtung. Die Back- oder Verarbeitungsqualität

In diesem Bericht werden Ergebnisse präsentiert, die auf langjährigen Untersuchungen mit dem sogenannten Optimierten-Backtest (OBT) und Öko-Weizensorten basieren. Mit der Optimierung konnte gezeigt werden, dass eine verbesserte Teigknetung zu sehr hohen Volumenausbeuten führt. Durch Kenntnis der Backqualität biodynamischer Sorten kann mit den Proteinwerten die Backqualität in bestimmten Grenzen zur Qualitätssicherung geschätzt werden. Die genannten Details sind inzwischen auch für konventionelle Weizensorten bestätigt worden

Direkte und indirekte Verfahren zur Bestimmung der Mehlqualität von Öko-Weizensorten

Direct and indirect methods for determining the technological flour quality of modern wheat varieties with high gluten quality have been assessed. Direct methods like the commonly used Rapid-Mix-Test (RMT) and an optimized baking test were compared to the indirect parameters gluten and crude protein. The results for the optimized baking test in 2007 showed more than 30 % higher loaf volume (713 ml/100 g flour) compared with the RMT (544 ml/100 g flour). In this selection of varieties, the determination of wet gluten between two laboratories showed no consistency in the results. In addition to that, very good flour quality (>660 ml/100 g flour) started on a relatively low crude protein level of flours > 9,0 %, but low correlations were obtained for crude protein (%) and gluten (%) for the loaf volume. The results underline that the loaf volumes depend on the specific gluten qualities for varieties and the kind of dough processing. The optimised baking test is therefore crucial in assessing the potential of bread making quality for wheat varieties, to ensure good bread wheat performance in organic farming. Because of the present results, the current demands on the quality of flours must be revised

Vorhersage der Backeignung von Weizen (Triticum aestivum L.) anhand struktureller Unterschiede in der Glutenin-Komposition

To dissect the most important determinant of wheat bread-making quality, gluten protein-types from 128 flours of organically grown German wheat varieties Bussard and Orestis were investigated by quantitative HPLC and SDS-PAGE procedures using protein standards. Both varieties exhibit great differences in gluten strength (> 34 %) at two locations and between two years determined by SDS-sedimentation volume (SDS-SV), a measure of bread-making quality. Unexpectedly, the results showed that neither concentrations of gliadin, gluten, HMW-glutenin or glutenin could explain the observed variation in SDS-SV even if protein concentrations were equal. In the case of glutenin this was found to be due to a low glutenin recovery resulting from a partial insolubility of glutenin in propanol (protein recoveries from 78 % to 95 %). Further investigations under the conditions of a complete glutenin extraction led to the identification and characterization of glutenin macropolymer (GMP) which affected the bread-making quality of wheat significantly. This effect was associated with higher molecular weights of GMP which may cause growing gluten networks compared to simple glutenin. Moreover, it was finally shown that quantitatively the concentrations of GMP (mg/100mg flour) were independent of protein concentrations. Our results demonstrate that, for the flour samples used, the flour GMP concentration is a key determinant, and together with the SDS-SV a reliable tool for bread-making quality prediction

Estimating panel VARs from macroeconomic data: Some Monte Carlo evidence and an application to OECD public spending shocks

This paper compares the performance of six widely applied techniques to estimate panel VARs from macroeconomic (large T) data. We show that the bias of the popular least squares dummy variable estimator remains substantial even when the time dimension of the dataset is relatively large. Adopting a bias correction to the simple fixed-effects estimator is strongly recommended to obtain consistent estimates of the implied impulse response functions. Multivariate extensions of the GMM-type estimators usually applied for estimating single-equation dynamic panel data models perform reasonably well in terms of bias, but poorly in terms of root mean square error, in particular if the variance of the fixed effects is large relative to the variance of the innovations. To illustrate the methodological arguments we present an application in which we use annual OECD country data to estimate the effects of changes in government consumption on aggregate output, private consumption, investment, and real wages. JEL classification: C13, C33, E62, E0

Identifying regional labor demand shocks using sign restrictions

We propose using sign restrictions to identify regional labor demand shocks in a panel VAR of US federal states. Observed migration responds significantly, but less persistently than the residual-based migration measure constructed by Blanchard and Katz (1992)

Estimating nonlinear effects of fiscal policy using quantile regression methods

We use quantile regression methods to estimate the effects of government spending shocks on output and unemployment rates. This allows to uncover nonlinear effects of fiscal policy by letting the parameters of either vector autoregressive models or local projection regressions vary across the distribution of macroeconomic activity. In quarterly US data, we find that fiscal output multipliers are notably larger if GDP is predicted to be below trend. Conversely, higher government spending appears to significantly lower unemployment only if the unemployment rate is in the largest deciles of its conditional distribution

Liquidity premia and interest rate parity

Risk-free assets denominated in US currency not only offer a pecuniary return, but also provide transactions services, both nationally and internationally. Accordingly, the responses of bilateral US dollar exchange rates to interest rate shocks should differ substantially with respect to the (US or foreign) origin of the shock. We demonstrate this empirically and apply a model of liquidity premia on US treasuries originating from monetary policy implementation. The liquidity premium leads to a modi fication of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), which is able to explain observed deviations of exchange rate dynamics from UIP predictions. In line with empirical evidence, the model predicts an appreciation of the US dollar subsequent to an increase in US interest rates as well as in SOE interest rates