Flogging a dead fox: why hunting is still on the agenda – and why it has nothing to do with animals

The political preoccupation with hunting in the UK does not reflect a central concern for animal issues – it is symptomatic of the marginalisation of animals in politics, writes Lucy J Parry

Deliberation in Democracy’s Dark Times

This piece reflects on the on the legacies of democratic deliberation, particularly mini-publics in responding to issues of disinformation, bigotry and nativism that has entered the political mainstream today. It aims to provoke conversations about the limitations of mini-publics in promoting democratic renewal and reconsider the functions of these forums in democracy’s ‘dark times.

Cessation of mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis in Zanzibar in 2006: was transmission interrupted?

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is targeted for elimination through annual mass drug administration (MDA) for 4-6 years. In 2006, Zanzibar stopped MDA against LF after five rounds of MDA revealed no microfilaraemic individuals during surveys at selected sentinel sites. We asked the question if LF transmission was truly interrupted in 2006 when MDA was stopped. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In line with ongoing efforts to shrink the LF map, we performed the WHO recommended transmission assessment surveys (TAS) in January 2012 to verify the absence of LF transmission on the main Zanzibar islands of Unguja and Pemba. Altogether, 3275 children were tested on both islands and 89 were found to be CFA positive; 70 in Pemba and 19 in Unguja. The distribution of schools with positive children was heterogeneous with pronounced spatial variation on both islands. Based on the calculated TAS cut-offs of 18 and 20 CFA positive children for Pemba and Unguja respectively, we demonstrated that transmission was still ongoing in Pemba where the cut-off was exceeded. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated ongoing transmission of LF on Pemba in 2012. Moreover, we presented evidence from previous studies that LF transmission was also active on Unguja shortly after stopping MDA in 2006. Based on these observations the government of Zanzibar decided to resume MDA against LF on both islands in 2013

Is the recent emergence of mephedrone injecting in the United Kingdom associated with elevated risk behaviours and blood borne virus infection?

The recent, and rapid, emergence of injection of the short-acting stimulant mephedrone (4-methylmethcathione) has resulted in concerns about increased infection risks among people who inject drugs (PWID). Data from the bio-behavioural surveillance of PWID in the United Kingdom were analysed to examine the impact of mephedrone injection on infections among PWID. During the year preceding the survey, 8.0% of PWID (163/2,047) had injected mephedrone. In multivariable analyses, those injecting mephedrone were younger, less likely to have injected opiates, and more likely to have injected cocaine or amphetamines, used needle/syringe programmes or sexual health clinics, been recruited in Wales and Northern Ireland or shared needles/syringes. There were no differences in sexual risks. Those injecting mephedrone more often had hepatitis C antibodies (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-2.12), human immunodeficiency virus (AOR = 5.43; 95% CI: 1.90-15.5) and overdosed (AOR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.12-2.57). There were no differences in the frequency of injecting site infections or prevalence of hepatitis B. The elevated levels of risk and infections are a concern considering its recent emergence. Mephedrone injection may currently be focused among higher-risk or more vulnerable groups. Targeted responses are needed to prevent an increase in harm

Historic hydrological droughts 1891–2015: systematic characterisation for a diverse set of catchments across the UK

Hydrological droughts occur in all climate zones and can have severe impacts on society and the environment. Understanding historical drought occurrence and quantifying severity is crucial for underpinning drought risk assessments and developing drought management plans. However, hydrometric records are often short and capture only a limited range of variability. The UK is no exception: numerous severe droughts over the past 50 years have been well captured by observations from a dense hydrometric network. However, a lack of long-term observations means that our understanding of drought events in the early 20th century and late 19th century is limited. Here we take advantage of new reconstructed flow series for 1891 to 2015 to identify and characterise historic hydrological droughts for 108 near-natural catchments across the UK using the standardised streamflow index (SSI). The identified events are ranked according to four event characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, mean deficit and maximum intensity), and their severity is reviewed in the context of events of the recent past (i.e. the last 50 years). This study represents the first national-scale assessment and ranking of hydrological droughts. Whilst known major drought events were identified, we also shed light on events which were regionally important, such as those in 1921 and 1984 (which were important in the south-east and north-west of the UK, respectively). Events which have been poorly documented, such as those of the 1940s in the post-war years or the early 1970s (prior to the landmark 1975–1976 event), were found to be important in terms of their spatial coverage and severity. This improved knowledge of historic events can support improved long-term water resource planning approaches. Given the universal importance of historical drought appraisal, our systematic approach to historical drought assessment provides a methodology that could be applied in other settings internationally

Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand

Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Developing a reliable Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System (DMEWS) is essential to strengthen a country&rsquo;s resilience to droughts. However, for a DMEWS to be valuable, the drought indicators it provides stakeholders must have relevance to tangible impacts on the ground. Here, we analyse drought indicator-to-impact relationships in Thailand, using a combination of correlation analysis and machine learning techniques (random forest). In the correlation analysis, we study the link between meteorological drought indicators and high-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices used as proxies for crop-yield and forest-growth impacts. Our analysis shows that this link varies depending on land use, season, and region. The random forest models built to estimate regional crop productivity allow a more in-depth analysis of the crop-/region-specific importance of different drought indicators. The results highlight seasonal patterns of drought vulnerability for individual crops, usually linked to their growing season, although the effects are somewhat attenuated in irrigated regions. Integration of the approaches provides new detailed knowledge of crop-/region-specific indicator-to-impact links, which can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions in an improved DMEWS in Thailand, and could be applied in other parts of Southeast Asia and beyond.</p

DIY John Curtin: Uncertain futures for heritage and citizenship in the era of digital friends and foes

This article introduces some of the problems confronting the popularization of national, civic and cultural heritage in the era of complex digital systems and social networks. Taking contemporary knowledge of John Curtin (Australia’s wartime PM) as its point of departure, the discussion explores some of the broader transformations of the conditions of citizenship, communication, heritage and knowledge production, and considers their implications for civic education and the uses of archives. In a novel thought experiment, the article explores some ways in which the figure of ‘John Curtin’ may be repurposed and reinvented for a new kind of DIY civic education based on user-led innovation

A multi-objective ensemble approach to hydrological modelling in the UK: an application to historic drought reconstruction

Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and post-observations, which enable greater understanding of past hydrological behaviour, and potential futures. In this paper, a new multi-objective calibration method was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK, and the calibrations were used to reconstruct river flows back to 1891, in order to provide a much longer view of past hydrological variability, given the brevity of most UK river flow records which began post-1960. A Latin hypercube sample of 500 000 parameterisations for the GR4J model for each catchment were evaluated against six evaluation metrics covering all aspects of the flow regime from high, median, and low flows. The results of the top ranking model parameterisation (LHS1), and also the top 500 (LHS500), for each catchment were used to provide a deterministic result whilst also accounting for parameter uncertainty. The calibrations are generally good at capturing observed flows, with some exceptions in heavily groundwater-dominated catchments, and snowmelt and artificially influenced catchments across the country. Reconstructed flows were appraised over 30-year moving windows and were shown to provide good simulations of flow in the early parts of the record, in cases where observations were available. To consider the utility of the reconstructions for drought simulation, flow data for the 1975–1976 drought event were explored in detail in nine case study catchments. The model's performance in reproducing the drought events was found to vary by catchment, as did the level of uncertainty in the LHS500. The Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI) was used to assess the model simulations' ability to simulate extreme events. The peaks and troughs of the SSI time series were well represented despite slight over- or underestimations of past drought event magnitudes, while the accumulated deficits of the drought events extracted from the SSI time series verified that the model simulations were overall very good at simulating drought events. This paper provides three key contributions: (1) a robust multi-objective model calibration framework for calibrating catchment models for use in both general and extreme hydrology; (2) model calibrations for the 303 UK catchments that could be used in further research, and operational applications such as hydrological forecasting; and (3) ∼ 125 years of spatially and temporally consistent reconstructed flow data that will allow comprehensive quantitative assessments of past UK drought events, as well as long-term analyses of hydrological variability that have not been previously possible, thus enabling water resource managers to better plan for extreme events and build more resilient systems for the future

An appraisal of the severity of the 2022 drought and its impacts

The summer of 2022 was particularly notable for the prolonged and extensive hot and dry conditions experienced across the UK. The resultant 2022 drought had widespread impacts and prompted much discussion about the continuing vulnerability of the UK to drought, particularly in the context of anthropogenic warming. Here, we briefly describe the evolution of the drought before focusing on the severity of rainfall, river flow, soil moisture and groundwater level deficits from summer 2022, placing the event into a historical context and addressing the impacts of the drought. We also consider whether the 2022 drought is part of a long-term trend towards increasing drought severity