Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis and Policy. Responses on Children in West and Central Africa

The current global financial and economic crisis, which exacerbates the impacts of the energy and food crises that immediately preceded it, has spread to the developing countries endangering recent gains in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction. The effects of the crisis are likely to vary substantially between countries and between individuals within the same country. Children are among the most vulnerable population, particularly in a period of crisis. Especially in least developed countries, where social safety nets programs are missing or poorly performing and public fiscal space is extremely limited, households with few economic opportunities are at a higher risk of falling into (monetary) poverty, suffering from hunger, removing children from school and into work, and losing access to health services. This study simulates the impacts of the global economic crisis and alternative policy responses on different dimensions of child welfare in Western and Central Africa (WCA) over the period 2009-2011. It is based on country studies for Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Ghana, which broadly represent the diversity of economic conditions in WCA countries. In order to capture the complex macro-economic effects of the crisis and the various policy responses – on trade, investment, remittances, aid flows, goods and factor markets – and to then trace their consequences in terms of child welfare – monetary poverty, hunger (caloric poverty), school participation, child labour, and access to health services – a combination of macro- and micro-analysis was adopted. The simulations suggest that the strongest effects are registered in terms of monetary poverty and hunger, although large differences between countries emerge. More moderate impacts are predicted in terms of school participation, child labour, and access to health care, although these are still significant and require urgent policy responses. Specifically, Ghana is the country where children are predicted to suffer the most in terms of monetary poverty and hunger, while Burkina Faso is where the largest deteriorations in schooling, child labour and access to health services are simulated. Among the policy responses examined to counteract the negative effects of the crisis on child well-being, a targeted cash transfer to predicted poor children is by far the most effective program. A comparison between a universal and targeted approach is also presented.Global economic crisis, child poverty, hunger, education, child labour, health, West and Central Africa, Burkina Faso, Cameroun, Ghana, social protection

Globalization and Health: Impact Pathways and Recent Evidence

The last two decades of the twentieth century recorded a slowdown in health gains and widespread increases in health inequality across and within countries. The paper explores the causes of such trends on the basis of five main mortality models. To do so, it regresses IMR/LEB on 15 determinants of health. The results underscore the negative health effects of the trends observed between 1980-2000, such as rising inequality, greater income volatility, declining health expenditure, increasing migration and so on. Finally, the paper simulates the level of LEB that would have been achieved in ten regions of the world if the determinants of health had continued developing over these decades as they did over 1960-80. The results indicate that in seven of such regions (including China and India) LEB would have been higher than actually observed. In this regard, the paper raises doubts about the way globalization has taken place and the way public policy oriented it.health status, health inequalities, globalization

Rural Policies and Poverty in Tanzania: an Agricultural Household Model-Based Assessment

The main objective of this study is to develop a robust and comprehensive tool to evaluate the effect on households’ welfare of different agricultural policies in Tanzania. This is done through a non-separable agricultural household model where production and consumption decisions are considered. In particular, we look at labour market failure, since this is among the major constraints in a context like rural Tanzania. Non-separability implies that production and consumption decisions are interlinked and that labour allocation is likely to be determined by shadow wages rather than market wages. A two-stage estimation strategy is adopted: the shadow price of family labour is first estimated and then included into the production and demand systems. The impact of a number of agricultural policies on poverty is then estimated. In particular, we evaluate the impact of policies established by the Agricultural Sector Development Programme, as well as changes in food prices

Globalization and health: Impact pathways and recent evidence

The last two decades of the twentieth century recorded a slowdown in health gains and widespread increases in health inequality across and within countries. The paper explores the causes of such trends on the basis of five main mortality models. To do so, it regresses IMR/LEB on 15 determinants of health. The results underscore the negative health effects of the trends observed between 1980-2000, such as rising inequality, greater income volatility, declining health expenditure, increasing migration and so on. Finally, the paper simulates the level of LEB that would have been achieved in ten regions of the world if the determinants of health had continued developing over these decades as they did over 1960-80. The results indicate that in seven of such regions (including China and India) LEB would have been higher than actually observed. In this regard, the paper raises doubts about the way globalization has taken place and the way public policy oriented it

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Fiscal Space and Public Spending on Children in Burkina Faso

International audienceDespite experiencing high growth rates in recent decades, Burkina Faso remains a poor country. Poverty among children is particularly worrying, as it has long term (and often irreversible) effects on individuals. Furthermore, it can be transmitted from one generation to the next and significantly reduce economic growth. To address this issue requires fiscal and budgetary policies supporting health, education and improving the household economy. At the same time

Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis and Policy Responses on Children in Ghana

Like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana is experiencing the impact of the global crisis and the uncertain economic outlook. Indeed, as Ghana’s economy is among the most open in Africa, it is expected that the country has been and will continue to be severely affected by the crisis, although strong export prices of its main exports (gold and cocoa) may at least partially counteract the effects associated with the crisis. The main goal of this paper is to understand the potential impacts of the 2008/9 global crisis on different dimensions of child poverty (monetary, hunger, school participation, child labour and access to health services) in Ghana and to support the policy-maker in designing the most appropriate policy response to counteract the negative effects of the crisis. As timely data are not available, a combined macro-micro economic model to predict the impact of the global crisis on children was developed. Simulations suggest that the financial crisis would increase monetary poverty and hunger across all regions of Ghana, eroding many of the gains made over the past few years. Indeed, in comparison with the year preceding the crisis, instead of a reduction of four percentage points in child monetary poverty in 2011 predicted in the absence of crisis, the simulations indicate a 6.6 percentage point increase, with a continuous increasing pattern over the period of study. The global crisis is also predicted to severely deepen hunger among children, which is simulated to increase up to 6.6 percentage points in 2011 beginning with a sharp increase already in 2009. For both monetary poverty and hunger, the impact of the crisis differs across all regions, with the Eastern, Volta and Greater Accra regions predicted to be the most affected. Children’s participation in schooling and labour, as well as their access to health services, are forecast to be much less affected by the crisis, although it is found to reverse predicted increases in enrolment and health access (with substitution toward more modern types of health services) and forecasted reductions in child labour. Finally, alternative policy options have been simulated: a cash transfer programme targeted to poor children is found to be generally more effective in protecting children than food subsidies. Indeed, with a total budget equivalent to 1% of 2008 GDP, a cash transfer – equivalent to an individual annual amount of 19.8 Cedis – would cut the predicted increase in monetary poverty by over two percentage points in 2011. Although Ghana might be in a position to rapidly implement a cash transfer programme building on the existing Livelihood Empowerment against Poverty (LEAP) programme, other interventions (or mix of policies) might be more cost-effective in the short run. A combination of a universal or regionally targeted cash transfer programmes for children aged 0 to 5 years old, together with a school-feeding programme in poorer regions, might represent an effective way to intervene quickly to improve child well-being.Global economic crisis, child poverty, hunger, education, child labour, health, West and Central Africa, Ghana, social protection

COVID-19-Induced Disruptions of School Feeding Services Exacerbate Food Insecurity in Nigeria

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated lockdown measures have disrupted educational and nutrition services globally. Understanding the overall and differential impacts of disruption of nutritional (school feeding) services is critical for designing effective post-COVID-19 recovery policies. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the impact of COVID-19-induced disruption of school feeding services on household food security in Nigeria. METHODS: We combined household-level, pre-COVID-19 in-person survey data with postpandemic phone survey data, along with local government area (LGA)–level information on access to school feeding services. We used a difference-in-difference approach and examined temporal trends in the food security of households with and without access to school feeding services. Of the sampled households, 83% live in LGAs with school feeding services. RESULTS: Households experienced an increase in food insecurity in the post-COVID-19 survey round. The share of households skipping a meal increased by 47 percentage points (95% CI: 44–50 percentage points). COVID-19-induced disruptions of school feeding services increased households' experiences of food insecurity, increasing the probability of skipping a meal by 9 percentage points (95% CI: 3–17 percentage points) and the likelihood of going without eating for a whole day by 3 percentage points (95% CI: 2–11 percentage points). Disruption of school feeding services is associated with a 0.2 SD (95% CI: 0.04–0.41 SD) increase in the food insecurity index. Households residing in states experiencing strict lockdown measures reported further deterioration in food insecurity. Single mothers and poorer households experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security due to disruption of school feeding services. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that COVID-19-induced disruptions in educational and nutritional services have exacerbated households’ food insecurity in Nigeria. These findings can inform the designs of immediate and medium-term policy responses, including the designs of social protection policies and alternative programs to substitute nutritional services affected by the pandemic

Intrahousehold Resource Allocation and Individual Poverty: Assessing Collective Model Predictions against Direct Evidence on Sharing

This folder contains the .dta files used to replicate the results reported in the paper "Intrahousehold Resource Allocation and Individual Poverty: Assessing Collective Model Predictions against Direct Evidence on Sharing

Fiscal Space and Public Spending on Children in Burkina Faso

Despite high growth rates in recent decades, Burkina Faso is still a poor country. The government acknowledges the need for a stronger commitment to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), particularly regarding the reduction of poverty. At the same time, the Burkinabe budget deficit has grown in recent years in response to various crises which have hit the country. There are strong pressures to rapidly reduce this budget deficit, but there are active concerns about how this will be achieved. The country thus faces difficult choices: how to ensure better living conditions for children, attain the millennium goals and ensure they have a better future in the present budgetary context? To answer this question, three policy interventions were identified: (i) an increase in education spending, (ii) a school fees subsidy and (iii) a cash transfer to households with children under the age of five. The same total amount is injected into the economy in each of the three cases, facilitating comparison between the three scenarios. The discussions also made it possible to identify the three financing mechanisms that appear most realistic: (i) a reduction in subsidies, (ii) an increase in the indirect tax collection rate and (iii) an extension of the timeframe to reduce the public deficit to ten years rather than five. The results indicate that increased public education spending helps raise school participation and pass rates, thus increasing the supply and education level of skilled workers, leading to a reduced incidence and depth of both monetary and caloric poverty. School fees subsidies have more differentiated effects on education: they promote children’s entry into school to a greater degree, but are less effective at inducing them to pursue their studies. Finally, the supply of skilled workers increases slightly, but their average level of education is lower than in the reference scenario. This type of intervention has a beneficial impact on poverty, greater than under increased public education spending. Cash transfers have a limited impact on educational behaviour, and thus on the supply of skilled workers, but substantially reduce the incidence and depth of poverty. The results are qualitatively similar under each financing approach. In sum, if the objective is to achieve improved education and economic performance, the best intervention appears to be to focus on increased public education spending. However, if reducing child poverty is prioritized, it is cash transfers to families that appear more suitable. Regardless of the intervention considered, the most suitable financing mechanism appears to be a temporary increase in the public deficit, because it is accompanied by a smaller negative effect on the quality of life of the most destitute