On-the-job Search and the Cyclical Dynamics of the Labor Market

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where workers can engage in search while on the job.We show that on-the-job search is a key component in explaining labor market dynamics in models of equilibrium unemployment.The model predicts fluctuations of unemployment, vacancies, and labor productivity whose relative magnitudes replicate the data.A standard search and matching model suggests much lower volatitilities of these variables.Intuitively, in a boom, rising search activity on the job avoids excessive tightening of the labor market for expanding firms.This keeps wage pressures low, thus further increasing firms' incentives to post new jobs.Labor market tightness as measured by the vacancy-unemployment ratio is as volatile as in the data.The interaction between on-the-job search and job creation also generates a strong internal propagation mechanism.labour market;curves;business cycles

Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation

ISSN: 2475-5648 ; 2475-563XThe Great Inflation of the 1970s can be understood as the result of equilibrium indeterminacy in which loose monetary policy engendered excess volatility in macroeconomic aggregates and prices. The Federal Reserve inadvertently pursued policies that were not anti-inflationary enough because it did not fully understand the economic environment it was operating in. Specifically, it had imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy and was subject to data misperceptions. The combination of learning about the economy and the use of mis-measured data resulted in policies, which the Federal Reserve believed to be optimal, but when implemented led to equilibrium indeterminacy.Thomas A. Lubik, Christian Matthe

Instability and indeterminacy in a simple search and matching model

We demonstrate the possibility of indeterminacy and non-existence of equilibrium dynamics in a standard business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. Our results arise for empirically plausible parametrizations and do not rely upon a mechanism such as increasing returns.Michael U. Krause and Thomas A. Lubi

On-the-job Search and the Cyclical Dynamics of the Labor Market

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where workers can engage in search while on the job.We show that on-the-job search is a key component in explaining labor market dynamics in models of equilibrium unemployment.The model predicts fluctuations of unemployment, vacancies, and labor productivity whose relative magnitudes replicate the data.A standard search and matching model suggests much lower volatitilities of these variables.Intuitively, in a boom, rising search activity on the job avoids excessive tightening of the labor market for expanding firms.This keeps wage pressures low, thus further increasing firms' incentives to post new jobs.Labor market tightness as measured by the vacancy-unemployment ratio is as volatile as in the data.The interaction between on-the-job search and job creation also generates a strong internal propagation mechanism

An Inventory of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for simple monetary policy rules that guarantee equilibrium determinacy in the New Keynesian Monetary Model. Our modeling framework is derived from a fully specified optimization model that is amendable to analytical characterization. The monetary policy rules analyzed are variants of teh basic Taylor rules ranging from simple inflation targeting (Current, forward, backward) to canonical Taylor rules with and without inertial nominal interest rates. We establish that determinacy obtains for a wide range of policy parameters, especially when the monetary authority targets output and smoothes interest rates. Contrary to other results in the literatura, we do not find a case for super-inertial interest rate policy