A transformation to sustainable heating in the UK: risks and opportunities for UK heat sector businesses

This is the final version of the article. Available from UKERC via the link in this record.This is working paper 2/3 from the Heat, Incumbency and Transformations (HIT) project.This working paper considers the risks and opportunities posed to UK heat sector businesses by a potential transformation towards a low-carbon heat system in the UK. It is an output from the Heat, Incumbency and Transformations (HIT) project which is part of the UK Energy Research Centre programme. The HIT project is investigating the idea of incumbency, considering what the term means, how it is present in the UK’s heat sector and what the implications of incumbency are for the UK’s potential transformation from a high carbon heat system to a low-carbon heat system. The previous working paper developed a working definition of incumbency (Lowes et al., 2017). This working paper forms the second phase of the project, exploring who the incumbents are in the UK heat system and the implications of the potential transformation for incumbents.UKERC is funded by The Research Councils UK Energy Programme

Incumbency in the UK heat sector and implications for the transformation towards low-carbon heating

This is the final version of the article. Available from UKERC via the link in this record.This is working paper 3/3 from the Heat, Incumbency and Transformations (HIT) project.This paper forms the last of three working papers published by the Heat, Incumbency and Transformations (HIT) team. The project investigated issues surrounding the decarbonisation of heating, which is increasingly seen as a priority by energy policy makers. It considers the move towards low carbon heating from the perspective of incumbency, a topic which has received only limited focus. Prior research has suggested that incumbent businesses can have both positive and negative influences on decarbonisation. There are examples of large companies investing in low carbon energy and driving change but there are also examples of incumbents trying to resist change therefore slowing or blocking decarbonisation. This paper focuses on what the policy implications of incumbency in the UK heat sector are for the decarbonisation of UK heat. The paper reports on a large number of interviews with experts working across the UK heat sector. This evidence is further built on using grey sources of literature and data.UKERC is funded by The Research Councils UK Energy Programme

Incumbency and the transformation towards low carbon heating in the UK – Implications for policy

This is the final version of the article. Available from UKERC via the link in this record.This briefing paper summarises the key policy implications from the last of three working papers published by the Heat Incumbency Transitions Team. This research has investigated the role and behaviour of heat market ‘incumbents’ in relation to the decarbonisation of heat.UKERC is funded by The Research Councils Energy programme

Defining incumbency: considering the UK heat sector

This is the final version of the article. Available from UKERC via the link in this record.This is working paper 1/3 from the Heat, Incumbency and Transformations (HIT) project.Incumbency is frequently considered as a barrier to the transformation of unsustainable socio-technical systems such as energy systems. However, despite wide use of the term, ‘incumbency’ has never been fully or adequately defined within the sustainable transitions literature. This working paper considers the use and meaning of the term incumbency in relation to sustainable transformations, specifically in relation to the UK’s heat system. It takes ideas of incumbency from other disciplines including economics, politics and innovation. Synthesising these literatures, the paper proposes a number of characteristics of incumbency. Finally we propose a definition of incumbency in relation to sustainability transformations, which suggests that incumbents are actors already present in a specific socio-technical system, who are likely to be involved with unsustainable practices, and who possess the capacity to affect system change.UKERC is funded by The Research Councils UK Energy Programme

Policy change, power and the development of Great Britain's Renewable Heat Incentive

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.The role of socio-political power is central to the development of policy, but systematic analyses of power associated with the development of energy policy are rare. Power is also an important yet somewhat under-researched aspect of socio-technical transitions research. The Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) policy aims to increase deployment of low-carbon heat in Great Britain and begin a transformation to a low carbon GB heat system. This article analyses the socio-political power associated with the development of the RHI policy based on Lukes' 'dimensions of power' approach using a methodology based on triangulation. We identify a number of policy change episodes during the development of the RHI and describe the influence of key actors on the policy. Despite the common assumption of the power of incumbents, we show that those actors with niche technological expertise, close relationships with Government actors and actors within the administration have been the most powerful drivers of policy development and change. Niche actors sped up the introduction of the RHI scheme and have also had some success in increasing relative support for biomethane injection. The power of a civil servant to slow the introduction of the domestic element of the RHI has also been identified.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Spherical harmonic representation of the main geomagnetic field for world charting and investigations of some fundamental problems of physics and geophysics

Quiet-day data from MAGSAT were examined for effects which might test the validity of Maxwell's equations. Both external and toroidal fields which might represent a violation of the equations appear to exist, well within the associated errors. The external field might be associated with the ring current, and varies of a time-scale of one day or less. Its orientation is parallel to the geomagnetic dipole. The toriodal field can be confused with an orientation in error (in yaw). It the toroidal field really exists, its can be related to either ionospheric currents, or to toroidal fields in the Earth's core in accordance with Einstein's unified field theory, or to both

Infrared aircraft measurements of stratospheric composition over Antarctica during September 1987

The JPL Mark IV interferometer recorded high resolution, infared solar spectra from the NASA DC-8 aircraft during flights over Antarctica in September 1987. The atmospheric absorption features in these spectra were analyzed to determine the overburdens of O3, NO, NO2, HNO3, ClONO2, HCl, HF, CH4, N2O, CO, H2O and CFC-12. The spectra were obtained at latitudes which ranged between 64 degrees S and 86 degrees S, allowing the composition in the interior of the polar vortex to be compared with that at the edge. The latitude dependence observed for NO, HO2, HNO3, ClONO2, HCl and HF are summerized. The values at 30 deg S were observed on the ferry flight from New Zealand to Hawaii. The dashed lines connecting the two were interpolated across the region for which there are no measurements. The chemically perturbed region is seen to consist of a collar of high HNO3 and ClONO2 surrounding a core in which the overburdens of these and of HCl and NO2 are very low. Clear increases in the overburdens of HF and HNO3 were observed during the course of September in the vortex core. HCl and NO2 exhibited smaller, less significant increases. The overburdens of the tropospheric source gases, N2O, CH4, CF2Cl2, and H2O were observed to much smaller over Antarctica than at mid-latitudes. This, together with the fact that HF over Antarctica was more that double its mid-latitude value, suggests that downwelling has occurred

Spherical harmonic representation of the main geomagnetic field for world charting and investigations of some fundamental problems of physics and geophysics

The data processing of MAGSAT investigator B test tapes and data tapes, and tapes of selected data on 15 magnetically quiet days is reported. The 1980 World Chart spherical model was compared with the MAGSAT (3/80) and MAGSAT vector data were used in the models. An article on modelling the geomagnetic field using satellite data is included

Disruptive and uncertain: Policy makers’ perceptions on UK heat decarbonisation

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe decarbonisation of heating represents a transformative challenge for many countries. The UK’s net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target requires the removal of fossil fuel combustion from heating in just three decades. A greater understanding of policy processes linked to system transformations is expected to be of value for understanding systemic change; how policy makers perceive policy issues can impact on policy change with knockon effects for energy system change. This article builds on the literature considering policy maker perceptions and focuses on the issue of UK heat policy. Using qualitative analysis, we show that policy makers perceive heat decarbonisation as disruptive, technological pathways are seen as deeply uncertain and heat decarbonisation appears to offer policy makers little ‘up-side’. Perceptions are bounded by uncertainty, affected by concerns over negative impacts, influenced by external influences and relate to ideas of continuity. Further research and evidence on optimal heat decarbonisation and an adaptive approach to governance could support policy makers to deliver policy commensurate with heat decarbonisation. However even with reduced uncertainty and more flexible governance, the perceptions of disruption to consumers mean that transformative heat policy may remain unpopular for policy makers, potentially putting greenhouse mitigation targets at risk of being missedEngineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC

Models of governance for energy infrastructure

This is the final version. Available from UKERC via the URL in this record. This working paper is an early output from the ‘Governance of Continuity and Change’ project within UKERC’s theme 4, Infrastructure Transitions. The paper investigates the importance of governance for energy system change and specifically investigates some of the areas where the UK’s net zero target implies significant infrastructure change or expansion, namely in industry and associated with buildings and transport. From an infrastructure perspective, specifically, our review highlights the need for: Mass upgrades/electrification transformations of buildings; Increases in electricity generation capacity; Increases in electricity network capacity; The conversion of (parts of) the gas network to hydrogen alongside the potential for decommissioning of parts of the gas network; An expansion in the scale of district heating. To develop a theoretical baseline, our paper goes on to highlight the various approaches used to govern infrastructure including issues of public versus private ownership, public-private-partnership models, and the use of regulatory asset base models. Building on the foundations of this working paper, the next stages of this project will involve the mapping of the governance models associated with three case studies: networks, buildings, and offshore wind. We will then test our governance maps using interviews with experts to check whether our maps are correct and to understand where governance may need to change to support goals for net-zero. We would gratefully receive any comments on the paper