Effective modeling for integrated water resource management: a guide to contextual practices by phases and steps and future opportunities

The effectiveness of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) modeling hinges on the quality of practices employed through the process, starting from early problem definition all the way through to using the model in a way that serves its intended purpose. The adoption and implementation of effective modeling practices need to be guided by a practical understanding of the variety of decisions that modelers make, and the information considered in making these choices. There is still limited documented knowledge on the modeling workflow, and the role of contextual factors in determining this workflow and which practices to employ. This paper attempts to contribute to this knowledge gap by providing systematic guidance of the modeling practices through the phases (Planning, Development, Application, and Perpetuation) and steps that comprise the modeling process, positing questions that should be addressed. Practice-focused guidance helps explain the detailed process of conducting IWRM modeling, including the role of contextual factors in shaping practices. We draw on findings from literature and the authors’ collective experience to articulate what and how contextual factors play out in employing those practices. In order to accelerate our learning about how to improve IWRM modeling, the paper concludes with five key areas for future practice-related research: knowledge sharing, overcoming data limitations, informed stakeholder involvement, social equity and uncertainty management. © 2019 Elsevier Lt

Weak Responses to Auditory Feedback Perturbation during Articulation in Persons Who Stutter: Evidence for Abnormal Auditory-Motor Transformation

Previous empirical observations have led researchers to propose that auditory feedback (the auditory perception of self-produced sounds when speaking) functions abnormally in the speech motor systems of persons who stutter (PWS). Researchers have theorized that an important neural basis of stuttering is the aberrant integration of auditory information into incipient speech motor commands. Because of the circumstantial support for these hypotheses and the differences and contradictions between them, there is a need for carefully designed experiments that directly examine auditory-motor integration during speech production in PWS. In the current study, we used real-time manipulation of auditory feedback to directly investigate whether the speech motor system of PWS utilizes auditory feedback abnormally during articulation and to characterize potential deficits of this auditory-motor integration. Twenty-one PWS and 18 fluent control participants were recruited. Using a short-latency formant-perturbation system, we examined participants’ compensatory responses to unanticipated perturbation of auditory feedback of the first formant frequency during the production of the monophthong [ε]. The PWS showed compensatory responses that were qualitatively similar to the controls’ and had close-to-normal latencies (~150 ms), but the magnitudes of their responses were substantially and significantly smaller than those of the control participants (by 47% on average, p<0.05). Measurements of auditory acuity indicate that the weaker-than-normal compensatory responses in PWS were not attributable to a deficit in low-level auditory processing. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that stuttering is associated with functional defects in the inverse models responsible for the transformation from the domain of auditory targets and auditory error information into the domain of speech motor commands

Non-physical consequences of the Muffin-tin-type intra-molecular potential

We demonstrate using a simple model that in the frame of muffin-tin - like potential non-physical peculiarities appear in molecular photoionization cross-sections that are a consequence of jumps in the potential and its first derivative at some radius. The magnitude of non-physical effects is of the same order as the physical oscillations in the cross-section of a two-atomic molecule. The role of the size of these jumps is illustrated by choosing three values of it. The results obtained are connected to the studied previously effect of non-analytical behavior as a function of r the potential V(r)acting upon a particle on its photoionization cross-section. In reality, such potential has to be analytic in magnitude and first derivative function in distance. Introduction of non-analytic features in model potential leads to non-physical features in the corresponding cross-section - oscillations, additional maxima etc.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Trends in Mortality from Septicaemia and Pneumonia with Economic Development: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Hong Kong population has experienced drastic changes in its economic development in the 1940s. Taking advantage of Hong Kong’s unique demographic and socioeconomic history, characterized by massive, punctuated migration waves from Southern China, and recent, rapid transition from a pre-industrialized society to the first ethnic Chinese community reaching “first world” status over the last 60 years (i.e., in two or three generations), we examined the longitudinal trends in infection related mortality including septicemia compared to trends in non-bacterial pneumonia to generate hypotheses for further testing in other recently transitioned economies and to provide generalized aetiological insights on how economic transition affects infection-related mortality.</p> <h3>Methods</h3><p>We used deaths from septicemia and pneumonia not specified as bacterial, and population figures in Hong Kong from 1976–2005. We fitted age-period-cohort models to decompose septicemia and non-bacterial pneumonia mortality rates into age, period and cohort effects.</p> <h3>Results</h3><p>Septicaemia-related deaths increased exponentially with age, with a downturn by period. The birth cohort curves had downward inflections in both sexes in the 1940s, with a steeper deceleration for women. Non-bacterial pneumonia-related deaths also increased exponentially with age, but the birth cohort patterns showed no downturns for those born in the 1940s.</p> <h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The observed changes appeared to suggest that better early life conditions may enable better development of adaptive immunity, thus enhancing immunity against bacterial infections, with greater benefits for women than men. Given the interaction between the immune system and the gonadotropic axis, these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that upregulation of the gonadotropic axis underlies some of the changes in disease patterns with economic development.</p> </div

The Effects of Governmental Protected Areas and Social Initiatives for Land Protection on the Conservation of Mexican Amphibians

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs

Professional development for professional learners: teachers’ experiences in Norway, Germany and England

Proposals made by the European Commission in 2007 led to the Education Council adopting, for the first time, a European agenda for improving the quality of teaching and teacher education. This article reports on a small-scale longitudinal interview-based study with teachers in England, Norway and Germany demonstrating that while opportunities for professional development are increasing in all three countries, dissatisfaction is expressed by most teachers in relation to its quality and outcomes